Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

by **jmanley32** Sat Dec 23, 2017 9:30 am

Man a 952mb snowicant east of the bm swing and a miss but you never know.

by **Snow88** Sat Dec 23, 2017 9:48 am

PNA is forecasted to go positive around next weekend

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

by Ltd Sat Dec 23, 2017 10:01 am

Is the pna going postive good or bad for the future? New member here who has no clue.

by **jimv45** Sat Dec 23, 2017 10:29 am

Back and forth with this weekend storm is to be expected. long way to go.

by **SENJsnowman** Sat Dec 23, 2017 10:30 am

Ltd wrote:Is the pna going postive good or bad for the future? New member here who has no clue.

Another Coastie! Welcome! And good question...

by **sroc4** Sat Dec 23, 2017 10:30 am

Ltd wrote:Is the pna going postive good or bad for the future? New member here who has no clue.

A positive PNA means a ridge in the west. This ridge means the jet stream off the Pacific has to take a detour north into Canada and or the arctic before dipping back down into the central US on the other side of the western ridge. Instead of the jet stream flooding the US with warm pacific air into the western US with a negative PNA and no western ridge you get Canadian or arctic air riding in on the jet stream that is forced up and over the western ridge with a positive PNA.

More simply stated a positive PNA is a good signal for colder air masses and snow chances in the east.

by **sroc4** Sat Dec 23, 2017 10:40 am

Welcome LTD btw.

by Ltd Sat Dec 23, 2017 10:54 am

thank you guys that makes sense and thanks for the warm welcome

by **Snow88** Sat Dec 23, 2017 11:14 am

CMC has a snow event next Friday

by **SENJsnowman** Sat Dec 23, 2017 12:18 pm

Snow88 wrote:CMC has a snow event next Friday

That's good, cuz the GFS sure don't. LOL... Mad

by **MattyICE** Sat Dec 23, 2017 12:41 pm

At minimum we are 6 days out. Potentially 7 depending on which vort pops. Every event we have had so far trended favorably within 84 hours. Doesn’t make sense to look to closely until Monday afternoon. Until then just watch the evolution of the pattern. There WILL be something to track.

by Guest Sat Dec 23, 2017 2:00 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Man a 952mb snowicant east of the bm swing and a miss but you never know.

Not good. Usually it’s the GFS with a S And E bias and the EURO with a W bias. Not liking this right now. Long way to go though

by Guest Sat Dec 23, 2017 2:02 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:
Snow88 wrote:CMC has a snow event next Friday

That's good, cuz the GFS sure don't. LOL...

I’m confused because in the banter thread Snowforecast posted that the GFS run was a dream come true.

by Guest Sat Dec 23, 2017 2:23 pm

I liked it a lot more when people were posting the snow maps with the obscene totals.

by **skinsfan1177** Sat Dec 23, 2017 2:56 pm

This is drool worthy Long Range Thread 15.0 - Page 33 E6805910

by **sroc4** Sat Dec 23, 2017 3:53 pm

Don’t panic too much over individual runs. Matty ice said it earlier as well. There is now need. Ops will cont to be back and forth. Get rest no and enjoy your Christmas because come Tuesday it’s going to be game on with Long nights. I GAR-ON-T!!

by New Yorker 234 Sat Dec 23, 2017 4:31 pm

Hi. I'm supposed to fly Atlanta to NYC on Saturday December 30. Now I hear there's a chance of a snowstore on that day. Should I rebook, if possible, for Friday the 29th or Thursday the 28th?

Thanks!

by Ltd Sat Dec 23, 2017 5:21 pm

Skins can you explain what is drool worthy. I am new and confused because I thought it was a miss or did I miss something. Again just curious thanks for your help

by **nutleyblizzard** Sat Dec 23, 2017 6:21 pm

18z brings back the big storm next week, but now its a new years eve/day event. I think its keying in on the wrong wave.

by Ltd Sat Dec 23, 2017 6:33 pm

Hey I will take it either way

by **skinsfan1177** Sat Dec 23, 2017 6:36 pm

Yeah that seems to be the the issue GFS latest run is focused on wave 2 which I think is wrong. We want wave 1. I think its just GFS being the GFS at this timeframe.

by Ltd Sat Dec 23, 2017 6:46 pm

Could you guys explain why it would be wrong. Would it be bettter if it was the other wave

by **jake732** Sat Dec 23, 2017 7:39 pm

so, i havent seen any modles since friday afternoon. little disappointed that the gfs lost the first wave on dec29. Hope it shows again as it happens that itll lose the storm and pop up again.

by **mikeypizano** Sat Dec 23, 2017 7:40 pm

jake732 wrote:so, i havent seen any modles since friday afternoon. little disappointed that the gfs lost the first wave on dec29. Hope it shows again as it happens that itll lose the storm and pop up again.

I am drinking my wine and not looking at them too much...

by **nutleyblizzard** Sat Dec 23, 2017 9:12 pm

Ltd wrote:Could you guys explain why it would be wrong. Would it be bettter if it was the other wave

There are multiple vorts or waves as some pros like to call them that will be on the weather map next week. The pattern is very complex for that reason. Whichever wave ultimately wins out will have a potential different result for us. Currently from the looks of it, wave 1 stands the best chance of giving us a big storm; the other waves probably not as much. Reason being is timing issues. Small changes in the atmosphere can have a big impact down the road.

by **nutleyblizzard** Sat Dec 23, 2017 11:04 pm

Big changes with 0z GFS. Its picking up the first wave!

by **MattyICE** Sat Dec 23, 2017 11:07 pm

Yeah. Even if this doesn’t produce a big hit, it’s encouraging at the upper levels. End game very far away.

by Sponsored content