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10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 26, 2017 11:05 pm

Actually, if the Euro plays out the winds are not all that far off from the gusts during sandy, so wind damage could be near comparable, just not the surge innundation.  We will get a lot more rain I saw almost no rain with sandy.  Found this graphic on NWS history of sandy anny.  If those 70+ gusts play out thats not gonna be good, there was a ton of tree damage and outages here and I am sure worse near shore.  I find it hard to believe max gust was 56kts in my area with the size of the trees that came down. I also read today that if this storm on sun/mon intensifies enough it COULD form a eyelike structure.

10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter - Page 2 Windgu10
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Post by Math23x7 Fri Oct 27, 2017 1:16 am

0Z GFS also way east. Hits Beantown hard, not so much NYC. We'll see what the ECMWF update holds in store.

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Post by frank 638 Fri Oct 27, 2017 5:02 am

Natinal weather service has me for 2 to 4 inches of rain for sun into sun night

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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Oct 27, 2017 6:23 am

Ukie is a huge hit into NJ10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter - Page 2 Gz_d5_10
10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter - Page 2 Gz_d5_10
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 27, 2017 6:48 am

Anyone got the euro?
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Post by algae888 Fri Oct 27, 2017 6:50 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Anyone got the euro?
Yes but can't post them on my phone 40 to 50 mile per hour gust for almost everyone with some 70 mile per hour gusts on Long Island all model shifted East somewhat last night and a little weaker
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Oct 27, 2017 6:59 am

@algae888 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Anyone got the euro?
Yes but can't post them on my phone 40 to 50 mile per hour gust for almost everyone with some 70 mile per hour gusts on Long Island all model shifted East somewhat last night and a little weaker

Yeah 50 shift east shift to me is just model noise


Last edited by skinsfan1177 on Fri Oct 27, 2017 7:08 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 27, 2017 7:03 am

the euro winds did shift to the east of the area, we see the heaviest rain. I just decided get wxbell back, so we see if the east thing is a trend or if its just a temporary shift and lowering of intensity.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Oct 27, 2017 7:09 am

Euro ensembles look good10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter - Page 2 Eps_sl10
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 27, 2017 7:13 am

was just go post that they are west of operational always a sign the opperational is prolly off a bit. skins you posted the ukie same image twice what is the next hr set look like after 72? that shows 991mb which is weak.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Fri Oct 27, 2017 7:17 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Oct 27, 2017 7:16 am

@jmanley32 wrote:was just go post that they are west of operational always a sign the opperational is prolly off a bit.

Exactly jman to me its model noise
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Post by amugs Fri Oct 27, 2017 7:27 am

EURO

10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter - Page 2 59f3102d526d5.thumb.png.586ac2bbfcb4216dab4b8ade24a3ad1f

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Oct 27, 2017 8:56 am

I'll go with 2-3 inches of rain for the area. 30-40mph winds with gusts along the coast, especially eastern LI, over 50mph at times.

What a crummy Sunday Sad

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Post by docstox12 Fri Oct 27, 2017 9:05 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:I'll go with 2-3 inches of rain for the area. 30-40mph winds with gusts along the coast, especially eastern LI, over 50mph at times.

What a crummy Sunday Sad

True, Frank, but we need the rain.It will have a late November feel to it anyway after this crazy warm October we had.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 27, 2017 9:05 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:I'll go with 2-3 inches of rain for the area. 30-40mph winds with gusts along the coast, especially eastern LI, over 50mph at times.

What a crummy Sunday Sad
Sure is and not much of a event if that's the case. At least I will still plan to go on my trip now.  Watch it all get worse at 12z and 00z. If this was snow we would all b drooling 20 to 30 inches.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 27, 2017 11:24 am

12z nam is intense brings higher winds into NYC and nj area 850s 65 kts plus. 4 inches rain or so.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Oct 27, 2017 11:31 am

@jmanley32 wrote:12z nam is intense brings higher winds into NYC and nj area 850s 65 kts plus. 4 inches rain or so.

But there is also some breaks in the rain. Probably closer to 3 than 4. Either way, we're getting soaked.

10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter - Page 2 Namconus_apcpn_neus_27

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Post by jimv45 Fri Oct 27, 2017 11:40 am

Was wondering I am taking the family to Tarrytown for a Halloween parade Saturday between 5-9 at night. looks like it should be ok how is it looking?

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 27, 2017 11:55 am

@jimv45 wrote:Was wondering I am taking the family to Tarrytown for a Halloween parade Saturday between 5-9 at night. looks like it should be ok how is it looking?
Saturday will be fine, its Sunday and Monday that we will have a storm of some magnitude.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 27, 2017 11:57 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:12z nam is intense brings higher winds into NYC and nj area 850s 65 kts plus. 4 inches rain or so.

But there is also some breaks in the rain. Probably closer to 3 than 4. Either way, we're getting soaked.

10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter - Page 2 Namconus_apcpn_neus_27
Your right it is more like 2-3 maybe 2-4, but as you said we getting soaked, its not a super long duration so its not go be nice to be out IMO.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 27, 2017 12:03 pm

NAM 850mb winds, some mnasty winds in the NYC area verbatim on sunday night and then as the back end comes through Monday it ramps up again, of course it appears the winds are displaced from the center(why is that) so a shift in either direction would change where the winds go.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 27, 2017 12:14 pm

GFS is pretty weak, I think its on its own cuz the CMC is about to crush us, wxbell is slow so I am only at hr 54, alot more development of 93L.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 27, 2017 12:15 pm

Yikes! Euro should be interesting.

10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter - Page 2 Cmc_pr10

10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter - Page 2 Cmc_pr11
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 27, 2017 12:23 pm

CMC goes ham. 3-5 inches+. Wxbell does not have good wind maps for CMC but I imagine they are pretty high with a 985 deepening to 979 over the area. That brown dot bordering NYC and NJ is IMBY

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Post by jimv45 Fri Oct 27, 2017 12:38 pm

Thanks Jman, I heard there might be a few showers Saturday night if that's right but nothing to bad

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