DEC 15 Coastal
+25
Vinnydula
billg315
Scullybutcher
docstox12
oldtimer
nutleyblizzard
Math23x7
bloc1357
jmanley32
essexcountypete
RJB8525
Snow88
track17
sroc4
WeatherBob
bobjohnsonforthehall
hyde345
aiannone
SENJsnowman
mikeypizano
skinsfan1177
rb924119
SoulSingMG
frank 638
amugs
29 posters
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Re: DEC 15 Coastal
Overnight crew bring this home.
Let's go peeps a December to Remember! !
Let's go peeps a December to Remember! !
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 14713
Join date : 2013-01-07
Re: DEC 15 Coastal
The GFS is showing a max Jet of 180KTS!!!, just to our south. This is a fast moving system and not much more moisture to work with. Could get that mod to heavy burst if the trough just happens to sharpen a bit more than the models are saying. I can not see more than .3 to .4 max precip but that can turn out to be a 6" to 7" max somewhere. This is a situation that you have to wait for the 12z Fri models to come out to pinpoint exactly where the trough starts to sharpen up.
WeatherBob- Meteorologist
- Posts : 646
Join date : 2013-12-13
Re: DEC 15 Coastal
Is there any chance that this storm can get to churning or is definitely just a clipper?
Right now the Jersey shore is in the heart of the bulls-eye. But that's probably gonna change and now it can only get worse for us from here! lol
Right now the Jersey shore is in the heart of the bulls-eye. But that's probably gonna change and now it can only get worse for us from here! lol
SENJsnowman- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: DEC 15 Coastal
Euro now on board
aiannone- Advanced Forecaster
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Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)
Re: DEC 15 Coastal
aiannone wrote:Euro now on board
GAME ON! What are you thinking for us here on the island kid? 2-4”? Is that high or low?
Guest- Guest
Re: DEC 15 Coastal
Somethings fishy here. Inside of 12hiurs till the snow starts but no mention on the NWS site?
Guest- Guest
Re: DEC 15 Coastal
syosnow94 wrote:Somethings fishy here. Inside of 12hiurs till the snow starts but no mention on the NWS site?
I noticed that too!!!! Very odd, considering you're looking at another advisory-level to possibly borderline warning-level snowfall.
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 6335
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Age : 31
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ
Re: DEC 15 Coastal
WWA issued for 2-3” but only for eastern Suffolk. And 1-3” for south Jersey. Oh well. Can’t win em all
Guest- Guest
Re: DEC 15 Coastal
As for me they have 1 to 2 inches of snow I wish that was 1 to 2 feet lol
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: DEC 15 Coastal
Everything held serve overnight Central Jersey looks to be the jackpot even especially Coastal area
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Location : Point Pleasant Boro
Re: DEC 15 Coastal
skinsfan1177 wrote:Everything held serve overnight Central Jersey looks to be the jackpot even especially Coastal area
Skins we went to bed talking about 2-4”+ from the city south and east with more possible and now the “jackpot” according to the NWS is 1-3” at best down by you? How is that?
Guest- Guest
Re: DEC 15 Coastal
I'm going with three to five for my area central New Jersey and South New Jersey
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Age : 46
Location : Point Pleasant Boro
Re: DEC 15 Coastal
My first Snow Map of the season!!


_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 8011
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Location : Wading River, LI
Re: DEC 15 Coastal
Syo let's be honest the nws and the pros have no clue. Someone like skins is much better then all of them combined. The others on this board are included too like mugs, sroc, and jmanley
track17- Posts : 454
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Join date : 2016-01-09
Re: DEC 15 Coastal
High ratio snow at .3 12:1 ratio to 15:1 is 3-4
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Location : Point Pleasant Boro
Re: DEC 15 Coastal
track17 wrote:Syo let's be honest the nws and the pros have no clue. Someone like skins is much better then all of them combined. The others on this board are included too like mugs, sroc, and jmanley
Agreed. I said as much yesterday. BY THE WAY ANYONE BUT ME EVER NOTICE THAT WHENEVER SCOTT MAKES A MAP WITH DIFFERENT ZONES HE ALWAYS JUST SNEAKS HIS TOWN INTO THE HIGHER OF THE TWO ZONES WHILE MANAGING TO JUST SNEAK MINE INTO THE LOWER ONE?



Guest- Guest
Re: DEC 15 Coastal
skinsfan1177 wrote:High ratio snow at .3 12:1 ratio to 15:1 is 3-4
Actually 3.6"-4.5"
And for most of the area, with the exception of maybe the southern half of NJ, ratios will be higher than 12:1..count on it
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 8011
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Location : Wading River, LI
Re: DEC 15 Coastal
syosnow94 wrote:track17 wrote:Syo let's be honest the nws and the pros have no clue. Someone like skins is much better then all of them combined. The others on this board are included too like mugs, sroc, and jmanley
Agreed. I said as much yesterday. BY THE WAY ANYONE BUT ME EVER NOTICE THAT WHENEVER SCOTT MAKES A MAP WITH DIFFERENT ZONES HE ALWAYS JUST SNEAKS HIS TOWN INTO THE HIGHER OF THE TWO ZONES WHILE MANAGING TO JUST SNEAK MINE INTO THE LOWER ONE?![]()
![]()
LOL Not this time Jimmy. I tucked myself just west of Zone 4. Close enough though where an extra 0.05-0.1" of QPF puts me in 4



Last edited by sroc4 on Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:18 am; edited 1 time in total
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 8011
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Location : Wading River, LI
Re: DEC 15 Coastal
Just busting chops. Look closely at your map. If you continued zone 4 from Jersey on the same curved pattern as every other line you drew, we would both be in zone 4. Double whammy!,ive me odds on both you and me getting 3”+
Guest- Guest
Re: DEC 15 Coastal
Anyone know what time the short range hi res models run? Interested to see the qpf. Output by the SREFS and the HRRR
Guest- Guest
Re: DEC 15 Coastal
syosnow94 wrote:Just busting chops. Look closely at your map. If you continued zone 4 from Jersey on the same curved pattern as every other line you drew, we would both be in zone 4. Double whammy!,ive me odds on both you and me getting 3”+
I wouldn’t have it any other way Paisan. I can take it.


_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 8011
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Location : Wading River, LI
Re: DEC 15 Coastal
sroc4 wrote:
And for most of the area, with the exception of maybe the southern half of NJ, ratios will be higher than 12:1..count on it
SNJ ratios might not get higher? Why the difference?
SENJsnowman- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: DEC 15 Coastal
Also, looks like Frank's snowfall potential as per the scroll has more than doubled this mornings. That's a good sign!
SENJsnowman- Senior Enthusiast
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Location : Bayville, NJ
Re: DEC 15 Coastal
SENJsnowman wrote:Also, looks like Frank's snowfall potential as per the scroll has more than doubled this mornings. That's a good sign!
That was me actually. The way I see it since he hasn't changed it he either isn't paying attention or agrees.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Location : Wading River, LI
Re: DEC 15 Coastal
Nam shows 1-3 for the NYC area based off 10:1 ratios
It might be a little more than 1-3 with the ratios.
It might be a little more than 1-3 with the ratios.
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Age : 35
Location : Brooklyn, NY
Re: DEC 15 Coastal
Snow88 wrote:Nam shows 1-3 for the NYC area based off 10:1 ratios
It might be a little more than 1-3 with the ratios.
15:1 minimum in the NYC area and coming down at night. So NAM VERBATIM would be 2.5”-4” event.
Guest- Guest
Re: DEC 15 Coastal
NJZ007>010-012>015-PAZ060>062-101>106-151945-
Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-
Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Western Chester-
Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Washington, Morristown, Flemington,
Somerville, New Brunswick, Freehold, Sandy Hook, Trenton,
Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Honey Brook, Oxford,
West Chester, Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown,
Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont, Perkasie, Morrisville,
and Doylestown
834 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017
...Snow to Effect the Evening Commute...
A period of snow will move in southwest to northeast beginning
between noon and 2pm and will continue to for several hours before
tapering off early this evening. While amounts of 1 to 2 inches
are currently expected for southeast Pennsylvania and central New
Jersey with a dusting to an inch north of here, the timing of the
snow coinciding with the afternoon rush hour could result in
slippery travel and travel delays.
Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-
Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Western Chester-
Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Washington, Morristown, Flemington,
Somerville, New Brunswick, Freehold, Sandy Hook, Trenton,
Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Honey Brook, Oxford,
West Chester, Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown,
Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont, Perkasie, Morrisville,
and Doylestown
834 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017
...Snow to Effect the Evening Commute...
A period of snow will move in southwest to northeast beginning
between noon and 2pm and will continue to for several hours before
tapering off early this evening. While amounts of 1 to 2 inches
are currently expected for southeast Pennsylvania and central New
Jersey with a dusting to an inch north of here, the timing of the
snow coinciding with the afternoon rush hour could result in
slippery travel and travel delays.
RJB8525- Senior Enthusiast
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Age : 37
Location : Hackettstown, NJ
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