Re: DEC 15 Coastal

by **amugs** Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:09 pm

Overnight crew bring this home.

Let's go peeps a December to Remember! !

by **WeatherBob** Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:09 pm

The GFS is showing a max Jet of 180KTS!!!, just to our south. This is a fast moving system and not much more moisture to work with. Could get that mod to heavy burst if the trough just happens to sharpen a bit more than the models are saying. I can not see more than .3 to .4 max precip but that can turn out to be a 6" to 7" max somewhere. This is a situation that you have to wait for the 12z Fri models to come out to pinpoint exactly where the trough starts to sharpen up.

by **SENJsnowman** Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:19 pm

Is there any chance that this storm can get to churning or is definitely just a clipper?

Right now the Jersey shore is in the heart of the bulls-eye. But that's probably gonna change and now it can only get worse for us from here! lol

by **aiannone** Fri Dec 15, 2017 1:03 am

Euro now on board

by Guest Fri Dec 15, 2017 1:34 am

aiannone wrote:Euro now on board

GAME ON! What are you thinking for us here on the island kid? 2-4”? Is that high or low?

by Guest Fri Dec 15, 2017 1:50 am

Somethings fishy here. Inside of 12hiurs till the snow starts but no mention on the NWS site?

by **rb924119** Fri Dec 15, 2017 2:08 am

syosnow94 wrote:Somethings fishy here. Inside of 12hiurs till the snow starts but no mention on the NWS site?

I noticed that too!!!! Very odd, considering you're looking at another advisory-level to possibly borderline warning-level snowfall.

by Guest Fri Dec 15, 2017 4:06 am

WWA issued for 2-3” but only for eastern Suffolk. And 1-3” for south Jersey. Oh well. Can’t win em all

by **frank 638** Fri Dec 15, 2017 5:21 am

As for me they have 1 to 2 inches of snow I wish that was 1 to 2 feet lol

by **skinsfan1177** Fri Dec 15, 2017 5:45 am

Everything held serve overnight Central Jersey looks to be the jackpot even especially Coastal area

by Guest Fri Dec 15, 2017 6:53 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:Everything held serve overnight Central Jersey looks to be the jackpot even especially Coastal area

Skins we went to bed talking about 2-4”+ from the city south and east with more possible and now the “jackpot” according to the NWS is 1-3” at best down by you? How is that?

by **skinsfan1177** Fri Dec 15, 2017 6:57 am

I'm going with three to five for my area central New Jersey and South New Jersey

by **sroc4** Fri Dec 15, 2017 7:09 am

My first Snow Map of the season!!

DEC 15 Coastal - Page 2 Dec_1510

by track17 Fri Dec 15, 2017 7:10 am

Syo let's be honest the nws and the pros have no clue. Someone like skins is much better then all of them combined. The others on this board are included too like mugs, sroc, and jmanley

by **skinsfan1177** Fri Dec 15, 2017 7:53 am

High ratio snow at .3 12:1 ratio to 15:1 is 3-4

by Guest Fri Dec 15, 2017 7:58 am

track17 wrote:Syo let's be honest the nws and the pros have no clue. Someone like skins is much better then all of them combined. The others on this board are included too like mugs, sroc, and jmanley

Agreed. I said as much yesterday. BY THE WAY ANYONE BUT ME EVER NOTICE THAT WHENEVER SCOTT MAKES A MAP WITH DIFFERENT ZONES HE ALWAYS JUST SNEAKS HIS TOWN INTO THE HIGHER OF THE TWO ZONES WHILE MANAGING TO JUST SNEAK MINE INTO THE LOWER ONE? Evil or Very Mad

by **sroc4** Fri Dec 15, 2017 8:21 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:High ratio snow at .3 12:1 ratio to 15:1 is 3-4

Actually 3.6"-4.5"

And for most of the area, with the exception of maybe the southern half of NJ, ratios will be higher than 12:1..count on it

by **sroc4** Fri Dec 15, 2017 8:25 am

syosnow94 wrote:
track17 wrote:Syo let's be honest the nws and the pros have no clue. Someone like skins is much better then all of them combined. The others on this board are included too like mugs, sroc, and jmanley

Agreed. I said as much yesterday. BY THE WAY ANYONE BUT ME EVER NOTICE THAT WHENEVER SCOTT MAKES A MAP WITH DIFFERENT ZONES HE ALWAYS JUST SNEAKS HIS TOWN INTO THE HIGHER OF THE TWO ZONES WHILE MANAGING TO JUST SNEAK MINE INTO THE LOWER ONE?

LOL Not this time Jimmy. I tucked myself just west of Zone 4. Close enough though where an extra 0.05-0.1" of QPF puts me in 4 told ya

by Guest Fri Dec 15, 2017 8:28 am

Just busting chops. Look closely at your map. If you continued zone 4 from Jersey on the same curved pattern as every other line you drew, we would both be in zone 4. Double whammy!,ive me odds on both you and me getting 3”+

by Guest Fri Dec 15, 2017 8:45 am

Anyone know what time the short range hi res models run? Interested to see the qpf. Output by the SREFS and the HRRR

by **sroc4** Fri Dec 15, 2017 8:48 am

syosnow94 wrote:Just busting chops. Look closely at your map. If you continued zone 4 from Jersey on the same curved pattern as every other line you drew, we would both be in zone 4. Double whammy!,ive me odds on both you and me getting 3”+

I wouldn’t have it any other way Paisan. I can take it. geek

by **SENJsnowman** Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:13 am

sroc4 wrote:
And for most of the area, with the exception of maybe the southern half of NJ, ratios will be higher than 12:1..count on it

SNJ ratios might not get higher? Why the difference?

by **SENJsnowman** Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:17 am

Also, looks like Frank's snowfall potential as per the scroll has more than doubled this mornings. That's a good sign!

by **sroc4** Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:19 am

SENJsnowman wrote:Also, looks like Frank's snowfall potential as per the scroll has more than doubled this mornings. That's a good sign!

That was me actually. The way I see it since he hasn't changed it he either isn't paying attention or agrees. Wink

by **Snow88** Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:25 am

Nam shows 1-3 for the NYC area based off 10:1 ratios

It might be a little more than 1-3 with the ratios.

by Guest Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:31 am

Snow88 wrote:Nam shows 1-3 for the NYC area based off 10:1 ratios

It might be a little more than 1-3 with the ratios.

15:1 minimum in the NYC area and coming down at night. So NAM VERBATIM would be 2.5”-4” event.

by **RJB8525** Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:32 am

NJZ007>010-012>015-PAZ060>062-101>106-151945-
Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-
Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Western Chester-
Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Washington, Morristown, Flemington,
Somerville, New Brunswick, Freehold, Sandy Hook, Trenton,
Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Honey Brook, Oxford,
West Chester, Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown,
Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont, Perkasie, Morrisville,
and Doylestown
834 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

...Snow to Effect the Evening Commute...

A period of snow will move in southwest to northeast beginning
between noon and 2pm and will continue to for several hours before
tapering off early this evening. While amounts of 1 to 2 inches
are currently expected for southeast Pennsylvania and central New
Jersey with a dusting to an inch north of here, the timing of the
snow coinciding with the afternoon rush hour could result in
slippery travel and travel delays.

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