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DEC 15 Coastal

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Post by SENJsnowman Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:19 pm

Is there any chance that this storm can get to churning or is definitely just a clipper?


Right now the Jersey shore is in the heart of the bulls-eye. But that's probably gonna change and now it can only get worse for us from here! lol

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Post by aiannone Fri Dec 15, 2017 1:03 am

Euro now on board
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Post by Guest Fri Dec 15, 2017 1:34 am

@aiannone wrote:Euro now on board

GAME ON! What are you thinking for us here on the island kid? 2-4”? Is that high or low?

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Post by Guest Fri Dec 15, 2017 1:50 am

Somethings fishy here. Inside of 12hiurs till the snow starts but no mention on the NWS site?

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Post by rb924119 Fri Dec 15, 2017 2:08 am

syosnow94 wrote:Somethings fishy here. Inside of 12hiurs till the snow starts but no mention on the NWS site?  

I noticed that too!!!! Very odd, considering you're looking at another advisory-level to possibly borderline warning-level snowfall.

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Post by Guest Fri Dec 15, 2017 4:06 am

WWA issued for 2-3” but only for eastern Suffolk. And 1-3” for south Jersey.  Oh well. Can’t win em all

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Post by frank 638 Fri Dec 15, 2017 5:21 am

As for me they have 1 to 2 inches of snow I wish that was 1 to 2 feet lol

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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Dec 15, 2017 5:45 am

Everything held serve overnight Central Jersey looks to be the jackpot even especially Coastal area
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Post by Guest Fri Dec 15, 2017 6:53 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Everything held serve overnight Central Jersey looks to be the jackpot even especially Coastal area

Skins we went to bed talking about 2-4”+ from the city south and east with more possible and now the “jackpot” according to the NWS is 1-3” at best down by you? How is that?

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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Dec 15, 2017 6:57 am

I'm going with three to five for my area central New Jersey and South New Jersey
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Post by sroc4 Fri Dec 15, 2017 7:09 am

My first Snow Map of the season!!

DEC 15 Coastal - Page 2 Dec_1510

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by track17 Fri Dec 15, 2017 7:10 am

Syo let's be honest the nws and the pros have no clue. Someone like skins is much better then all of them combined. The others on this board are included too like mugs, sroc, and jmanley

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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Dec 15, 2017 7:53 am

High ratio snow at .3 12:1 ratio to 15:1 is 3-4
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Post by Guest Fri Dec 15, 2017 7:58 am

@track17 wrote:Syo let's be honest the nws and the pros have no clue. Someone like skins is much better then all of them combined. The others on this board are included too like mugs, sroc, and jmanley

Agreed. I said as much yesterday. BY THE WAY ANYONE BUT ME EVER NOTICE THAT WHENEVER SCOTT MAKES A MAP WITH DIFFERENT ZONES HE ALWAYS JUST SNEAKS HIS TOWN INTO THE HIGHER OF THE TWO ZONES WHILE MANAGING TO JUST SNEAK MINE INTO THE LOWER ONE? Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad tongue

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Post by sroc4 Fri Dec 15, 2017 8:21 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:High ratio snow at .3 12:1 ratio to 15:1 is 3-4

Actually 3.6"-4.5"

And for most of the area, with the exception of maybe the southern half of NJ, ratios will be higher than 12:1..count on it

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by sroc4 Fri Dec 15, 2017 8:25 am

syosnow94 wrote:
@track17 wrote:Syo let's be honest the nws and the pros have no clue. Someone like skins is much better then all of them combined. The others on this board are included too like mugs, sroc, and jmanley

Agreed. I said as much yesterday.  BY THE WAY ANYONE BUT ME EVER NOTICE THAT WHENEVER SCOTT MAKES A MAP WITH DIFFERENT ZONES HE ALWAYS JUST SNEAKS HIS TOWN INTO THE HIGHER OF THE TWO ZONES WHILE MANAGING TO JUST SNEAK MINE INTO THE LOWER ONE?  Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad tongue

LOL  Not this time Jimmy.  I tucked myself just west of Zone 4.  Close enough though where an extra 0.05-0.1" of QPF puts me in 4  told ya

DEC 15 Coastal - Page 2 Meee10
DEC 15 Coastal - Page 2 Dec_1512


Last edited by sroc4 on Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:18 am; edited 1 time in total

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Guest Fri Dec 15, 2017 8:28 am

Just busting chops.  Look closely at your map. If you continued zone 4 from Jersey on the same curved pattern as every other line you drew, we would both be in zone 4. Double whammy!,ive me odds on both you and me getting 3”+

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Post by Guest Fri Dec 15, 2017 8:45 am

Anyone know what time the short range hi res models run? Interested to see the qpf. Output by the SREFS and the HRRR

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Post by sroc4 Fri Dec 15, 2017 8:48 am

syosnow94 wrote:Just busting chops.  Look closely at your map.  If you continued zone 4 from Jersey on the same curved pattern as every other line you drew, we would both be in zone 4.  Double whammy!,ive me odds on both you and me getting 3”+

I wouldn’t have it any other way Paisan. I can take it. geek santa

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by SENJsnowman Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:13 am

@sroc4 wrote:
And for most of the area, with the exception of maybe the southern half of NJ,  ratios will be higher than 12:1..count on it

SNJ ratios might not get higher? Why the difference?

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Post by SENJsnowman Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:17 am

Also, looks like Frank's snowfall potential as per the scroll has more than doubled this mornings. That's a good sign!

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Post by sroc4 Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:19 am

@SENJsnowman wrote:Also, looks like Frank's snowfall potential as per the scroll has more than doubled this mornings. That's a good sign!

That was me actually. The way I see it since he hasn't changed it he either isn't paying attention or agrees. Wink


_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Snow88 Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:25 am

Nam shows 1-3 for the NYC area based off 10:1 ratios

It might be a little more than 1-3 with the ratios.
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Post by Guest Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:31 am

@Snow88 wrote:Nam shows 1-3 for the NYC area based off 10:1 ratios

It might be a little more than 1-3 with the ratios.

15:1 minimum in the NYC area and coming down at night. So NAM VERBATIM would be 2.5”-4” event.

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Post by RJB8525 Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:32 am

NJZ007>010-012>015-PAZ060>062-101>106-151945-
Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-
Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Western Chester-
Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Washington, Morristown, Flemington,
Somerville, New Brunswick, Freehold, Sandy Hook, Trenton,
Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Honey Brook, Oxford,
West Chester, Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown,
Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont, Perkasie, Morrisville,
and Doylestown
834 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

...Snow to Effect the Evening Commute...

A period of snow will move in southwest to northeast beginning
between noon and 2pm and will continue to for several hours before
tapering off early this evening. While amounts of 1 to 2 inches
are currently expected for southeast Pennsylvania and central New
Jersey with a dusting to an inch north of here, the timing of the
snow coinciding with the afternoon rush hour could result in
slippery travel and travel delays.
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