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DEC 15 Coastal

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Vinnydula
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DEC 15 Coastal - Page 3 Empty Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by Snow88 Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:38 am



You would not think snow is coming based off the radar
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DEC 15 Coastal - Page 3 Empty Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by rb924119 Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:59 am

RGEM would bring warning-criteria snowfall to all areas southeast of a line from Point Pleasant to Dover, DE. WHAT IS THE WEATHER SERVICE DOING????? They should definitely expand their advisories at least up to NYC IMO and bump up the totals by almost a factor of two.

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DEC 15 Coastal - Page 3 Empty Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by amugs Fri Dec 15, 2017 10:40 am

Latest HRRR - this is 4PM - what a nightmare shaping up for the commute as per Earthlight

DEC 15 Coastal - Page 3 DRGGrkSUMAABNC3

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DEC 15 Coastal - Page 3 Empty Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by amugs Fri Dec 15, 2017 10:42 am

From a notable Weenie who is VERY GOOD at these storms

How much you wanna bet the convection off the coast is throwing the models and this comes west another 50 miles ? If so holy snikes then NYC metro in for a YUUGGGE surprise


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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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DEC 15 Coastal - Page 3 Empty Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by amugs Fri Dec 15, 2017 10:55 am

POPPIN FAST and HARD
rb with teh call again on this one 3 for 3 kid!!!

DEC 15 Coastal - Page 3 Inxr1kwbca_h

Good sign that we have this this far west - shield may actually expand - high positive bust potential

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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DEC 15 Coastal - Page 3 Empty Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by rb924119 Fri Dec 15, 2017 11:11 am

@amugs wrote:POPPIN FAST and HARD
rb with teh call again on this one 3 for 3 kid!!!

DEC 15 Coastal - Page 3 Inxr1kwbca_h

Good sign that we have this this far west - shield may actually expand - high positive bust potential

Thanks, mugs, but you were on the front lines with this also as I recall, so don't forget about that!! CMC got me singing Canada's anthem for our Jersey Shore peeps!!!! 6-7" with ratios for those guys!!! WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO BRING IT ON BABY!!!!!

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DEC 15 Coastal - Page 3 Empty Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by rb924119 Fri Dec 15, 2017 11:14 am

14z HRRR noticeably wetter also.

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Post by essexcountypete Fri Dec 15, 2017 11:16 am

@amugs wrote:POPPIN FAST and HARD
rb with teh call again on this one 3 for 3 kid!!!

You guys are on to this before the masses even had a clue. It feels like insider trading. You guys are the best cheers
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DEC 15 Coastal - Page 3 Empty Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by rb924119 Fri Dec 15, 2017 11:31 am

Light snow being reported in Fredericksburg, MD. Here she comes.......can't wait to watch that precipitation field begin to blossom like a spring time flower after an April shower. Once that mid-level trough starts sharpening and tilting negative in concert with the jet and low-level warm advection we'll be cooking with gas Wink

And thanks, Pete!! We definitely try to do the best we can, while having a lot of fun and laughs along the way!!!

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DEC 15 Coastal - Page 3 Empty Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by Guest Fri Dec 15, 2017 11:44 am

My map if I could make one would be 1-3” on a straight line from Baltimore thru NYC N and W. 2-4” s and e with isolated 5” amounts along the immediate jersey shore and eastern tip of LI

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DEC 15 Coastal - Page 3 Empty Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by rb924119 Fri Dec 15, 2017 11:50 am

The NWS must have heard my request - WWA now extend all the way NYC and southern CT right along and east of I-95!!!

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DEC 15 Coastal - Page 3 Empty Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by amugs Fri Dec 15, 2017 12:03 pm

From Earthlight

DEC 15 Coastal - Page 3 DRGVnEeUIAA8CMG

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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DEC 15 Coastal - Page 3 Empty Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by amugs Fri Dec 15, 2017 12:11 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@amugs wrote:POPPIN FAST and HARD
rb with teh call again on this one 3 for 3 kid!!!

DEC 15 Coastal - Page 3 Inxr1kwbca_h

Good sign that we have this this far west - shield may actually expand - high positive bust potential

Thanks, mugs, but you were on the front lines with this also as I recall, so don't forget about that!! CMC got me singing Canada's anthem for our Jersey Shore peeps!!!! 6-7" with ratios for those guys!!! WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO BRING IT ON BABY!!!!!

DEC 15 Coastal - Page 3 Oh-canada-logo

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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DEC 15 Coastal - Page 3 Empty Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 15, 2017 12:27 pm

Nice surprise here sorry haven't been post much but been reading. Sroc you think it could see more than 3 that would put me over 10 and that's close to half of all last year lol. This is cool but I do hope we get a monster or two.
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DEC 15 Coastal - Page 3 Empty Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by rb924119 Fri Dec 15, 2017 12:58 pm

Light snow now being reported in suburbs of Philly

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Post by aiannone Fri Dec 15, 2017 1:04 pm

Only expecting an inch here on CLI, but I hope i get a surprise
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Post by amugs Fri Dec 15, 2017 1:10 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Light snow now being reported in suburbs of Philly

Models are confused with convection as the super weenie onanoterh board has sadi along

This is so much further by about 50-75 more miles than models had

DEC 15 Coastal - Page 3 Inxr1kphla_h

DEC 15 Coastal - Page 3 5a34098de381f_RAD_MOS_STATE_PA_L2NCR_ANI(2).thumb.gif.5ffdc9f00e0cc24a897b4b52b8519fd4

CPA was to see ugatz!!

From USAwx board - this is the calculated axis of teh heavier dbz bands from teh latest Jet Streak rb? Armond? Bob? Buehler?

DEC 15 Coastal - Page 3 IMG_0668.thumb.PNG.7c21a1e92d220443d8ec5b3879af2c7c


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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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DEC 15 Coastal - Page 3 Empty Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by amugs Fri Dec 15, 2017 1:13 pm

Snowing here - ahead of schedule!!

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by SENJsnowman Fri Dec 15, 2017 1:16 pm

@amugs wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:Light snow now being reported in suburbs of Philly

Models are confused with convection as the super weenie onanoterh board has sadi along

This is so much further by about 50-75 more miles than models had



Snowing very lightly here at the shore already. But I mean VERY lightly. lol But still much earlier than called for.

Mugs, is this strictly a nowcast situation in your opinion?

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Post by rb924119 Fri Dec 15, 2017 1:16 pm

LP center well northwest of modeling.....coming NNE over the Delmarva per latest surface observations.

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Post by bloc1357 Fri Dec 15, 2017 1:18 pm

Ever so lightly starting to snow here on South Shore of Long Island....Intermittent flurries

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Post by amugs Fri Dec 15, 2017 1:18 pm

@SENJsnowman wrote:
@amugs wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:Light snow now being reported in suburbs of Philly

Models are confused with convection as the super weenie onanoterh board has sadi along

This is so much further by about 50-75 more miles than models had



Snowing very lightly here at the shore already. But I mean VERY lightly. lol But still much earlier than called for.

Mugs, is this strictly a nowcast situation in your opinion?
Yup models totally confused by the convection meso low aspect not the first nor last time this will happen!

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by aiannone Fri Dec 15, 2017 1:19 pm

Flurries here on the north shore of LI. Temp dropping. Down 1.5 degrees from evap cooling in 10 min
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DEC 15 Coastal - Page 3 Empty Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by rb924119 Fri Dec 15, 2017 1:26 pm

@rb924119 wrote:LP center well northwest of modeling.....coming NNE over the Delmarva per latest surface observations.

DEC 15 Coastal - Page 3 Slide111

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DEC 15 Coastal - Page 3 Empty Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by SENJsnowman Fri Dec 15, 2017 1:33 pm

Is that bad for the shore? It don't sound good. Sounds like its gonna push all the hard stuff N and W of us...

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