Re: DEC 15 Coastal

by **rb924119** Fri Dec 15, 2017 1:26 pm

rb924119 wrote:LP center well northwest of modeling.....coming NNE over the Delmarva per latest surface observations.

by **SENJsnowman** Fri Dec 15, 2017 1:33 pm

Is that bad for the shore? It don't sound good. Sounds like its gonna push all the hard stuff N and W of us...

by **rb924119** Fri Dec 15, 2017 1:36 pm

amugs wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Light snow now being reported in suburbs of Philly

Models are confused with convection as the super weenie onanoterh board has sadi along

This is so much further by about 50-75 more miles than models had

CPA was to see ugatz!!

From USAwx board - this is the calculated axis of teh heavier dbz bands from teh latest Jet Streak rb? Armond? Bob? Buehler?

Yes Mugs, I can offer my opinion of confirmation. Given the trough axis now going negative with some interaction between northern and southern streams, *AS WELL AS* the clear northward placement of 300hPa jet by about 75 miles would support not only the centerline of heavier accumulations approximately in that zone highlighted above, but also a wider swath of those totals. This would also explain the surface low pressure being located still over the Delmarva instead of already being offshore per modeling. This could be quite the surprise for many along the I-95 corridor.

by **Math23x7** Fri Dec 15, 2017 1:38 pm

In my new apartment on the Upper East Side. The snow has commenced here!

by **rb924119** Fri Dec 15, 2017 1:38 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:Is that bad for the shore? It don't sound good. Sounds like its gonna push all the hard stuff N and W of us...

Not necessarily, snowman, because being further east will also allow the mesoscale banding to be more mature as it rotates through your area, so while you should see a shorter duration, you should also see heavier rates as it pulls out.

by **nutleyblizzard** Fri Dec 15, 2017 1:42 pm

So RB in your opinion are we looking at warning criteria snows for the NJ-NYC metro area?

by **rb924119** Fri Dec 15, 2017 1:42 pm

Moderate banding begininning to develop just northwest and along I-95 aided by developing 850hPa frontogenesis. HERE WE GO FOLKS!!!

by **SENJsnowman** Fri Dec 15, 2017 1:44 pm

rb924119 wrote:
SENJsnowman wrote:Is that bad for the shore? It don't sound good. Sounds like its gonna push all the hard stuff N and W of us...

Not necessarily, snowman, because being further east will also allow the mesoscale banding to be more mature as it rotates through your area, so while you should see a shorter duration, you should also see heavier rates as it pulls out.

Got it thanks!

I just looked at the TWC future radar and could see exactly what you were talking about. The shore doesn't get enveloped until 4 pm, but when it does it's a darker shade of blue than what was hitting everyone else to nw. We are going to get drilled for 3 hours.

Ha ha! I'll take that for sure!!

by **rb924119** Fri Dec 15, 2017 1:47 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:So RB in your opinion are we looking at warning criteria snows for the NJ-NYC metro area?

I think any of those will be very isolated simply because of the speed of this system, but highest probability of those will probably be right along I-95. That said, I think high-end advisory criteria (4-5") will be fairly attainable. I was crunching some numbers earlier and it looks like snowfall ratios will average near 17:1. With the forcing in place, decent crystal growth in the DGZ should occur, so once it starts it should start stacking pretty quickly, and with projected LE QPF of about .25-.3", that fits. Not to mention that the ground is very cold, so melting on contact will not be an issue as it was with the first system.

by **oldtimer** Fri Dec 15, 2017 1:49 pm

Am I still in line for 1-3 in Central Suffolk or has it changed? Thanks

by **rb924119** Fri Dec 15, 2017 1:51 pm

oldtimer wrote:Am I still in line for 1-3 in Central Suffolk or has it changed? Thanks

Yup, maybe 2-4" or even 3-5" on the highest end given trends in recent banding features and their direction.

by **SoulSingMG** Fri Dec 15, 2017 1:54 pm

Move this baby N by about 50 miles...

DEC 15 Coastal - Page 4 9dd9d810

by **docstox12** Fri Dec 15, 2017 1:56 pm

First flakes noted at 1:54 PM.22 degrees.Radar looks pretty good, further west than I thought it would be.I'm on the northern fringe of this, will be happy to get 2 inches.

by **jmanley32** Fri Dec 15, 2017 2:10 pm

I'm in that swath mugs pisted 3 plus would be awesome even 2 to 3. Have get my daughter at 6 may not be too fun.

by **jmanley32** Fri Dec 15, 2017 2:12 pm

Flurries starting!

by **skinsfan1177** Fri Dec 15, 2017 2:13 pm

Just flurries here on coast I hope it picks up any input on current info for cnj coast

by **frank 638** Fri Dec 15, 2017 2:15 pm

Just started to snow very lightly at LaGuardia airport I hope we all get good snowfall Today what a great Dec so far

by track17 Fri Dec 15, 2017 2:17 pm

Skins picking up in Toms River it is coming your way

by **SENJsnowman** Fri Dec 15, 2017 2:18 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:Just flurries here on coast I hope it picks up any input on current info for cnj coast

Looks like it's starting to pick up here in Bayville skins. Plus it seems on the TWC radar that the band is expanding SE (right over us) as we speak.

by **aiannone** Fri Dec 15, 2017 2:21 pm

Steady light snow here on the island now

by **sroc4** Fri Dec 15, 2017 2:33 pm

You can see the 850mb frontogenesis develop and point in the direction of where the best forcing will likely be. Currently Light Snow falling North Shore of Suffolk County LI
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DEC 15 Coastal - Page 4 8fnt_sf

by **Scullybutcher** Fri Dec 15, 2017 2:52 pm

What time is this going to end

by **rb924119** Fri Dec 15, 2017 2:52 pm

This is interesting to me; didn't the models suggest that these bands would be much more N-S oriented versus W-E, like they are?

by **jmanley32** Fri Dec 15, 2017 2:53 pm

That's go be close call u f it gets close enough to NYC and just north. It's light snow now here.

by **SENJsnowman** Fri Dec 15, 2017 2:56 pm

Looks like I'm getting bigger flakes now and that the banding is expanding over the shore

by **skinsfan1177** Fri Dec 15, 2017 2:59 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:Looks like I'm getting bigger flakes now and that the banding is expanding over the shore

Yeah darker greens on radar

by **rb924119** Fri Dec 15, 2017 3:05 pm

Lots of moderate snow with visibilities around a half-mile now being reported in much of eastern PA now. NOW PEPE'S WARMING UP!!!!