Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

SoulSingMG wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:The ensembles are much more consolidated and well east of area very few members give any big snow...

Not good.

nope and check out the nam what a wacko run.

My condolences to you and your wife Amugs.. Tough way to start the New Year. I pray God gives you all strength at this time.
 Never made midnight and woke up to a not so nice Euro. Seems like the storm just wants to stay east. Of course a little closer along with good ratios and strong winds it could look nice here in Suffolk County!!

Not exactly how I wanted to wake up seeing the models this way

Not really sure what everyone is so worried about. This is what happens when you live and die by every model run.

Good morning, could this just be models not being able to handle all the moving parts..when does the sampling actually begin...it that today or tom?...just asking

weatherwatchermom wrote:Good morning, could this just be models not being able to handle all the moving parts..when does the sampling actually begin...it that today or tom?...just asking

Both vorts will be on land as of 12z today.....though the sampling will be ehhhhhh(no raob stations near where it is located)...
http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html

FWIW, Mt Holly has decided to go bullish for the Jersey coast, calling for an 80% chance for snow on Wed night and an 80% chance for Heavy snow on Thursday.

I am still hoping for it to come west enough that I see snow!

good morning all and happy new year mugs my condolences to you and your family. what a complex and interesting set up. have you ever noticed how a clipper that gives us an inch of snow then moves north east and bombs out in coastal eastern Canada to sub 980 as it interacts with the polar vortex. well that is what's going to happen here. throw in the stj and the much warmer atlantic waters at our latitude and I think models will have a very difficult time figuring this one out. today's runs are big but not the end all. very interesting for me to watch how this all plays out.

Srefs looks great that's a tucked low.

Srefs looks like a BM track

skinsfan1177 wrote:Srefs looks great that's a tucked low.

Yeah, great run. Lets see if the NAM follows

Way i see it is that this, odds of this storm coming close enough to give us all a SECS is close to nil, BUT, just like the lottery, sometimes everything comes together to give someone a miracle payday... hoping that this is one of those miracles. It will be extremely painful to watch this storm deepen to such a strong system mere miles off the coast though...

Radz wrote:Way i see it is that this, odds of this storm coming close enough to give us all a SECS is close to nil, BUT, just like the lottery, sometimes everything comes together to give someone a miracle payday... hoping that this is one of those miracles. It will be extremely painful to watch this storm deepen to such a strong system mere miles off the coast though...

radz it's far from nil. actually there is a good chance of MECS. with so much convection with this system it is like asking a model to pin point a mcs (thunder storms in summer) four days out. heck they can't get that right 6 hours out. long ways to go with this one.

ok folks nam rolling. what a great way to start the new year tracking a major east coast storm with temps in the single digits.

skinsfan1177 wrote:Srefs looks like a BM track

There has been posts made by JB and other mets that the global models are incorrectly developing the low too far east initially. They mentioned that lows tend to develop near the baroclinic zone. It's starting to look apparent to me that the short range models are picking up on certain nuances of this complex setup that would bring the storm much closer to the coast that the global models fail to do. Until the short range models back off, I believe this is the case.

nutleyblizzard wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:Srefs looks like a BM track

There has been posts made by JB and other mets that the global models are incorrectly developing the low too far east initially. They mentioned that lows tend to develop near the baroclinic zone. It's starting to look apparent to me that the short range models are picking up on certain nuances of this complex setup that would bring the storm much closer to the coast that the global models fail to do. Until the short range models back off, I believe this is the case.

Agree the 3knam off the Georgia coast showed this that the west low was being more diminant

Skins, please educate me on this, the short range models are starting to come into range now correct? And since they allow for convection, they should be more accurate in terms of totals now right?

People writing this off are making a big mistake the northern vort doesn't really get sampled until late tonight and that's a key player. I like were we stand atm

MY GOD THE SREFS!!!!!!!

so far the nam is more amped with the two s/w in question. the one over the rockies and the moving southeast from west/central Canada thru hour 27. low should be stronger and west from previous runs

algae888 wrote:

Radz wrote:Way i see it is that this, odds of this storm coming close enough to give us all a SECS is close to nil, BUT, just like the lottery, sometimes everything comes together to give someone a miracle payday... hoping that this is one of those miracles. It will be extremely painful to watch this storm deepen to such a strong system mere miles off the coast though...

radz it's far from nil. actually there is a good chance of MECS. with so much convection with this system it is like asking a model to pin point a mcs (thunder storms in summer) four days out. heck they can't get that right 6 hours out. long ways to go with this one.

This is true, but I would feel much more confident if the initial low pops up much further west than currently modeled, rather not need such a northerly component to the track or a hook to draw it closer to the coast. Hope the SR models lead the way, and yes this truly is a dynamic setup for models to try and handle.

Hard west lean on the SREFs. HARD.

Lets see were the nam goes but the northern vort is faster this run.

Show sref

SREFS

NAM looking good through 51. More precip over land in GA is a good sign