Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

amugs wrote:WSW are up from Fla to Maine except for NJ and NY, can't make this up.

If the positive trends continue on the 12Z's, and that's a big if with this storm, I would think at least LI, NYC and the jersey shore areas have one by the 4pm updates.

the movement this morning has me thinking there's actually a good chance 12z does shift west or ne. Don't u want snow cp let's reel it in.

Most WSW -> BW due to winds....probably tonight.

jmanley32 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

amugs wrote:WSW are up from Fla to Maine except for NJ and NY, can't make this up.

If the positive trends continue on the 12Z's, and that's a big if with this storm, I would think at least LI, NYC and the jersey shore areas have one by the 4pm updates.

the movement this morning has me thinking there's actually a good chance 12z does shift west or ne. Don't u want snow cp let's reel it in.

ABSOLUTELY JMAN!!!!!!

I don't think I'm in a good spot in the HV but who knows with this storm, but being south and east may benefit you on this one. LI and Jersey coast may be the spot.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

amugs wrote:WSW are up from Fla to Maine except for NJ and NY, can't make this up.

If the positive trends continue on the 12Z's, and that's a big if with this storm, I would think at least LI, NYC and the jersey shore areas have one by the 4pm updates.

the movement this morning has me thinking there's actually a good chance 12z does shift west or ne. Don't u want snow cp let's reel it in.

ABSOLUTELY JMAN!!!!!!

I don't think I'm in a good spot in the HV but who knows with this storm, but being south and east may benefit you on this one. LI and Jersey coast may be the spot.

Great news for us here CP! The NWS has upped us from "less than an inch" to "about an inch" .WOOOHOOOO,LOL!

Does anyone know if there was new sampling data that the NAM used this morning as opposed to the data used by the models last night?

I feel unless a miracle happens I will probably be too far west to see anything...

Quietace wrote:Most WSW -> BW due to winds....probably tonight.

yeah as I understand their consolidation it's was to b warning no more b watches which makes sense it's only the wind and duration.

docstox12 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

amugs wrote:WSW are up from Fla to Maine except for NJ and NY, can't make this up.

If the positive trends continue on the 12Z's, and that's a big if with this storm, I would think at least LI, NYC and the jersey shore areas have one by the 4pm updates.

the movement this morning has me thinking there's actually a good chance 12z does shift west or ne. Don't u want snow cp let's reel it in.

ABSOLUTELY JMAN!!!!!!

I don't think I'm in a good spot in the HV but who knows with this storm, but being south and east may benefit you on this one. LI and Jersey coast may be the spot.

Great news for us here CP! The NWS has upped us from "less than an inch" to "about an inch" .WOOOHOOOO,LOL!

Doc I don’t know what the hell is going on at the NWS. If you go to their hazards page the only portion of our forecast area that is included in their probability of 8”+ and 12”+ IS THE HUDSON VALLEY. But on their forecast they have you guys as getting the least? Very confusing. What happened to rb’s video?

lglickman1 wrote:Does anyone know if there was new sampling data that the NAM used this morning as opposed to the data used by the models last night?

maybe a but but 12z is going to be big as I think full sampling will be ingested in the models.

Hey a 75 mile shift west would be great the rpm model used by channel 11 has the most with 8 for city and 17 on the east end of islanD AND SAID CITY CAN ALSO SEE HIGHER THAN A FOOT

docstox12 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

amugs wrote:WSW are up from Fla to Maine except for NJ and NY, can't make this up.

If the positive trends continue on the 12Z's, and that's a big if with this storm, I would think at least LI, NYC and the jersey shore areas have one by the 4pm updates.

the movement this morning has me thinking there's actually a good chance 12z does shift west or ne. Don't u want snow cp let's reel it in.

ABSOLUTELY JMAN!!!!!!

I don't think I'm in a good spot in the HV but who knows with this storm, but being south and east may benefit you on this one. LI and Jersey coast may be the spot.

Great news for us here CP! The NWS has upped us from "less than an inch" to "about an inch" .WOOOHOOOO,LOL!

Doc I'm trying to mentally prepare myself for the frustration this one will probably bring us. At this stage I'm in it for the Central Park totals and to see what happens to our friends to the S and E. This may be our pay back for last years March Blizzard.

Ridiculous back and forth on this one though. If it really does become a 960MB low somewhere near our latitiude I think all bets are off, a storm that deep will do what it wants not what some model projects. Just one laymans opinion with no science to back it because I still can't decipher the maps and I don't even try. That's what our experts are here for.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

docstox12 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

amugs wrote:WSW are up from Fla to Maine except for NJ and NY, can't make this up.

If the positive trends continue on the 12Z's, and that's a big if with this storm, I would think at least LI, NYC and the jersey shore areas have one by the 4pm updates.

the movement this morning has me thinking there's actually a good chance 12z does shift west or ne. Don't u want snow cp let's reel it in.

ABSOLUTELY JMAN!!!!!!

I don't think I'm in a good spot in the HV but who knows with this storm, but being south and east may benefit you on this one. LI and Jersey coast may be the spot.

Great news for us here CP! The NWS has upped us from "less than an inch" to "about an inch" .WOOOHOOOO,LOL!

     

Doc I'm trying to mentally prepare myself for the frustration this one will probably bring us. At this stage I'm in it for the Central Park totals and to see what happens to our friends to the S and E. This may be our pay back for last years March Blizzard.

Ridiculous back and forth on this one though. If it really does become a 960MB low somewhere near our latitiude I think all bets are off, a storm that deep will do what it wants not what some model projects. Just one laymans opinion with no science to back it because I still can't decipher the maps and I don't even try. That's what our experts are here for.

CP, as you well know my learned statistician friend, reversion to the mean is sacrosanct and it may well be our payback for the March Blizzard.However, to your point being a layman, I can't help comparing this event to the Boxing Day Blizzard where the NWS had us in the 1 to 3 inch range a few days out with total mayhem at the NWS resulting in the now defunct red blizzard markings all over our area.At this stage, we are still alive in the ballgame.If it works out for us, I'll be with you all the way that day reporting the happy event!

Can anyone give us a rundown of what the short range hi-res models (which are now in range inside of 48 hours) are showing please. NAM, RGEM, RPM,SREFS ETC;

syosnow94 wrote:Can anyone give us a rundown of what the short range hi-res models (which are now in range inside of 48 hours) are showing please.  NAM, RGEM, RPM,SREFS ETC;

So far the srefs are a Tad dryer. .75 le line into the city. NAMM looks good so far negative tilt trough at hour 36

So far NAM is north of 6z at hr 39, a little weaker

Now a little south as it jumps ENE a bit at hr 45. Better precip into the area though

Looks slightly west of 6z. Overall, it's a good run. Long Island gets hit good, just need a little more west and it's a good run for most

What do you mean by good? Godzilla?

lglickman1 wrote:What do you mean by good? Godzilla?

Very close. This run is 8-12" for Jersey Shore and LI with ratios

NAM and its 3km counterpart will cont. to improve.

Hi res nam was amaxing

aiannone wrote:

Hey my fellow Islander. How do you like the NAM? Any other short range models on board too

Talk about a cut off my god!!
Also ratios are 15-20:1