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January 16th-17th Snow Event

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Post by jimv45 Tue Jan 16, 2018 5:51 pm

dkodgis its not going to get bad until later, Got to wait for the coastal!  You are in a good spot unless things change.

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Post by billg315 Tue Jan 16, 2018 6:42 pm

35* here. I’m less worried about mixing issues (which seem to be more in play for my area now, although only at the outset) than I am about the ragged looking radar and the fact that I have to rely on this thing juicing up before it exits stage right - an outcome I rarely see with clipper systems. I’m guessing 1-2” here is the best I’ll do with this.
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Post by amugs Tue Jan 16, 2018 6:58 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:31.3° here now, figuring on getting a few inches

Zoo we are good for 3-4" tick this puppy east and we can eek out maybe 4.5/5 at max.
Allendale looking at 4-5" where I work

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:02 pm

@billg315 wrote:35* here. I’m less worried about mixing issues (which seem to be more in play for my area now, although only at the outset) than I am about the ragged looking radar and the fact that I have to rely on this thing juicing up before it exits stage right - an outcome I rarely see with clipper systems. I’m guessing 1-2” here is the best I’ll do with this.

Even up here where they're predicting 5-8 inches, I'll believe it when I see it.
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Post by docstox12 Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:02 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@billg315 wrote:35* here. I’m less worried about mixing issues (which seem to be more in play for my area now, although only at the outset) than I am about the ragged looking radar and the fact that I have to rely on this thing juicing up before it exits stage right - an outcome I rarely see with clipper systems. I’m guessing 1-2” here is the best I’ll do with this.

Even up here where they're predicting 5-8 inches, I'll believe it when I see it.

Well I see a few wisps of precip in the ocean on the radar so I assume the coastal is forming.Not feeling the love so far.And the timing of this by the NWS is just awful.From starting at 1 pm to still nothing.



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Post by jimv45 Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:17 pm

Yea doc its been snowing all day here although light roads are getting bad..After midnight is when the heavier stuff is suppose to kick in will see.

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Post by amugs Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:19 pm

It is suppose to get going around midnight through the am and be out of here by about 9-10ish. The coastal is what bring us teh precip not the arctic front.

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Post by Guest Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:26 pm

Just spoke to my pops up in north central Ulster County. Over 2” on the ground and coming down pretty good he says. 24 degrees up there. Reports of over 3” already in southern Ulster

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Post by aiannone Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:27 pm

Down to 30.9 here now. Interesting
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Post by Guest Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:29 pm

Looking at radar over eastern PA by Allentown, 1-2” per hour band of snow moving in a beeline towards the Hudson valley. Ever so slowly creeping east as well. Doc and CP should be in it by 9-9:30

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Post by Guest Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:30 pm

@aiannone wrote:Down to 30.9 here now. Interesting

Just a shade under 32 here. Wind has a northerly component to it no?

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Post by aiannone Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:33 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
@aiannone wrote:Down to 30.9 here now. Interesting

Just a shade under 32 here.  Wind has a northerly component to it no?
 NE to nearly calm. East end and immediate south shore looks to be having an effect from the SE flow. Temps are around 37-39 there.

And as I am typing we are down to 30.5 now. Pretty similar temps here to the areas under WSWs. Now, the question will be whether the temps quickly rebound as the low gets going and approaches.
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Post by algae888 Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:43 pm

@aiannone wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
@aiannone wrote:Down to 30.9 here now. Interesting

Just a shade under 32 here.  Wind has a northerly component to it no?
 NE to nearly calm. East end and immediate south shore looks to be having an effect from the SE flow. Temps are around 37-39 there.

And as I am typing we are down to 30.5 now. Pretty similar temps here to the areas under WSWs. Now, the question will be whether the temps quickly rebound as the low gets going and approaches.
I am also 30* dp 25* winds calm. how is this warm nose getting here? I am hearing it's a very shallow layer. big question is precip rates. if it comes down hard I believe it will snow imby. not impressed with radar atm. maybe rb was right. we shall see.
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Post by aiannone Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:56 pm

Looking at mid and upper levels
925mb (which warmed from hour 4 to hour 2, but then from hour 2 to present it has not warmed anymore. As you can see plenty cold:
January 16th-17th Snow Event - Page 7 Captur34

850mb Also plenty cold:
January 16th-17th Snow Event - Page 7 Captur35

And then the last component is the sfc, which in many areas are below forecast.

I guess we will see if there is more warming as the coastal low gets going, but as of now the coastal low has formed and significant warming would need to occur before the mid and upper levels are not supportive
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Post by Guest Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:04 pm

This is your storm Alex. Bring us a miracle.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:08 pm

I realize I'm under a WSW but this storm is starting to bore me.

I'm expecting an under performer, but hoping I'm wrong of course.
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Post by aiannone Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:08 pm

syosnow94 wrote:This is your storm Alex.  Bring us a miracle.  

I am not making any promises lol, but I am definitely seeing that it's worth watching. Only thing that is concerning is that the south shore is already at 38-39
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Post by aiannone Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:18 pm

0z NAM
January 16th-17th Snow Event - Page 7 Captur36
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:36 pm

@aiannone wrote:0z NAM
January 16th-17th Snow Event - Page 7 Captur36
there ya go, just when ya thought the B town was getting ziltch they into it moderate, and NYC is out along wqith many areas to west that had been forecasted to have snow now see zero.
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Post by Guest Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:38 pm

Shit that would be a non-event for the entire forum. Hopefully doesn’t verify..

Maybe the kid rb was right all along

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:38 pm

@aiannone wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:This is your storm Alex.  Bring us a miracle.  

I am not making any promises lol, but I am definitely seeing that it's worth watching. Only thing that is concerning is that the south shore is already at 38-39
If its not gonna snow in NYC and southern WC how do you expect it to snow in Long Island? We just gotta give it up I think, this wasn't a big one for anyone anyways.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:40 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Shit that would be a non-event for the entire forum.  Hopefully doesn’t verify..

Maybe the kid rb was right all along
He was I just did not want to be the other nay sayer lol, but now that it appears quite clear I am okay with saying it is looking more likely we bow to rb : )
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Post by billg315 Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:52 pm

I don’t think rb was alone in that. I’ve never been enthused about this event. I’ve heard several other posters with similar skepticism. While I hope (hoped?) for 1-3, I will be the least surprised person if I wake up tomorrow with a coating to an inch.
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Post by hyde345 Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:53 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:I realize I'm under a WSW but this storm is starting to bore me.

I'm expecting an under performer, but hoping I'm wrong of course.

It's snowing moderately here with 2 inches OTG. Just shoveled driveway so don't have to do it all tomorrow with no wind to worry about.
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Post by aiannone Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:54 pm

Just watched a live video from Joe Cioffi. He mentioned watching the wind barbs closely on the coast. the warm air will be in a very shallow layer driven by sfc winds. IF winds stay more N to NE, then the coast will see falling temps near freezing. If we switch to E to SE winds we will see warming temps. I am noticing that fluctuation at my house right now as the wind direction fluctuates ever so slightly.
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