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MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

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Post by sroc4 Tue Feb 27, 2018 10:21 pm

@WeatherBob wrote:To say that the upper level lows will cut-off exactly where it is shown on this run, is pretty much a guess by the models at this point.  A little perturbation in the mean flow or movement of the system coupled with the upper dynamics can change the actual cut off placements by at least 30 or 40 miles in the next 48 hours.  More watching to come with this storm

Agreed. Where this occurs holds the key

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Post by amugs Tue Feb 27, 2018 10:23 pm

HI RES colder LP tad more South

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 9 NAM-HIRES_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f58
MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 9 NAM-HIRES_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f59
MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 9 NAM-HIRES_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f60

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Post by billg315 Tue Feb 27, 2018 10:23 pm

Another thing to keep in mind is this storm does have the potential to create a world of haves and have nots on this board. It is entirely possible some of us get zip from this while others have several inches (or more) to dig out from. There could be quite a mix of happy and unhappy people on here Friday. Lol.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Feb 27, 2018 10:29 pm

@billg315 wrote:Another thing to keep in mind is this storm does have the potential to create a world of haves and have nots on this board. It is entirely possible some of us get zip from this while others have several inches (or more) to dig out from. There could be quite a mix of happy and unhappy people on here Friday. Lol.

I would say the odds are more likely that happens then doesn't.
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Post by Math23x7 Tue Feb 27, 2018 10:29 pm

Good luck getting snow on the coast with these temperatures on the 0Z 3-km NAM...

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Post by rb924119 Tue Feb 27, 2018 10:29 pm

I just hope this isn't start of the northwest trend we've seen with many systems this season lol that would suck aha

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Post by Math23x7 Tue Feb 27, 2018 10:30 pm

@rb924119 wrote:I just hope this isn't start of the northwest trend we've seen with many systems this season lol that would suck aha

Given the trend, I would expect that.

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Post by SoulSingMG Tue Feb 27, 2018 10:37 pm

00z NAM makes me a little sad but it's one run. Basically New England gets the brunt of storm, upstate gets the snows and our area is showery and breezy lol
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Feb 27, 2018 10:40 pm

@Math23x7 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:I just hope this isn't start of the northwest trend we've seen with many systems this season lol that would suck aha

Given the trend, I would expect that.

Why would we expect that? We haven't had blocking or a negative NAO all season. Shouldn't the different setup yield different results? At least that's what I'm hoping.
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Post by rb924119 Tue Feb 27, 2018 10:47 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@Math23x7 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:I just hope this isn't start of the northwest trend we've seen with many systems this season lol that would suck aha

Given the trend, I would expect that.

Why would we expect that? We haven't had blocking or a negative NAO all season. Shouldn't the different setup yield different results? At least that's what I'm hoping.

I think you both have equally valid arguments, and this would be a fantastic thought experiment - do different conditions necessarily yield different results? Hmmmmmmmmmmm......

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Post by Math23x7 Tue Feb 27, 2018 10:48 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@Math23x7 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:I just hope this isn't start of the northwest trend we've seen with many systems this season lol that would suck aha

Given the trend, I would expect that.

Why would we expect that? We haven't had blocking or a negative NAO all season. Shouldn't the different setup yield different results? At least that's what I'm hoping.

Boxing Day 2010 we had the blocking. The trend the two to three days leading up to it was to bring the storm west. Even 36 hours out, it had the jackpot over eastern LI, while it actually happened over eastern NJ.

January 23, 2016 we had the blocking. The trend the days leading up to it was also north. A couple of days prior, models projected it to be pretty close to a February 5th-6th, 2010 redux where DC-Philly were buried and NYC got diddily squat.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Feb 27, 2018 10:55 pm

@Math23x7 wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@Math23x7 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:I just hope this isn't start of the northwest trend we've seen with many systems this season lol that would suck aha

Given the trend, I would expect that.

Why would we expect that? We haven't had blocking or a negative NAO all season. Shouldn't the different setup yield different results? At least that's what I'm hoping.

Boxing Day 2010 we had the blocking.  The trend the two to three days leading up to it was to bring the storm west.  Even 36 hours out, it had the jackpot over eastern LI, while it actually happened over eastern NJ.

January 23, 2016 we had the blocking.  The trend the days leading up to it was also north.  A couple of days prior, models projected it to be pretty close to a February 5th-6th, 2010 redux where DC-Philly were buried and NYC got diddily squat.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 27, 2018 11:00 pm

gfs pretty close to nam on surface actually goes well inland....not throw in towel but not good nam and gfs agree to an extent. basically no snow for anyone.
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Post by jimv45 Tue Feb 27, 2018 11:02 pm

Cp I think we will see something up here the question is how much with not a whole lot of cold air to work with going to be interesting to see this play out.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Feb 27, 2018 11:05 pm

@jimv45 wrote:Cp I think we will see something up here the question is how much with not a whole lot of cold air to work with going to be interesting to see this play out.

Probably but how much is the big question, it's a wide range right now, I think we should know a lot more by tomorrow night.
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Post by WeatherBob Tue Feb 27, 2018 11:19 pm

I am just curious, anyone have a gfs snow map?
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 27, 2018 11:29 pm

@WeatherBob wrote:I am just curious, anyone have a gfs snow map?
there is one but not much on it here ya go.....

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 9 Gfs_as11
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 27, 2018 11:33 pm

and just for another downer before I go to bed the CMC...This looks like it may be a rain and high wind (but due to placement the high winds do not even capture the area as they did on runs yesterday into 12z today. event, we will see but tonights runs not great, hope SR FTW and 00z NAM is a throw out hopefully.

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Post by WeatherBob Tue Feb 27, 2018 11:36 pm

Well that GFS snow map looks good for Goderich Canada. Home to the worlds largest operational salt mine!
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Post by jimv45 Tue Feb 27, 2018 11:39 pm

Well after some of these runs tonight my high Hope's have come down, will see what tomorrow brings.

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Post by rb924119 Tue Feb 27, 2018 11:42 pm

Am I disheartened? Yes. Do I also know better to recognize the fact that when you see differences on the order of magnitude we saw today/tonight so far that these solutions are far from locked? Yes. Moral of the story......WE TRACK!!!!

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Post by WeatherBob Tue Feb 27, 2018 11:51 pm

That a boy RB, like John Belushi in Animal House when he rallied the troops with his speech!
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Feb 28, 2018 12:05 am

Agreed. Not so great tonight but IMO we have another 24 hours before depression sets in. If we see the same or worse solutions tomorrow night well then Houston we have a problem.
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Post by Math23x7 Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:02 am

0Z EURO really cuts down on the snow from the prior run. Being that this will be the second to last post of this page, I don't think people will notice when they get up.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 28, 2018 5:27 am

06z runs were still north Little to no snow in the area.
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