March 2nd Nor'easter Update

Light snow, grassy surfaces all covered 34 degrees.

41° here has been steady rain. Waiting for the changeover at some point

All 6z guidance has come in colder including the rgem which now bring some snow into the city the latest hrrr also does the same thing. Winds have turn to the north-northeast temperatures are falling the rain snow line is quickly moving south I'm at 37 degrees with a dew point of 34 it's snowing not too far to my North. I think we're going to be in for a pleasant surprise today

TheAresian wrote:Sure, the process is cool, but have you ever laughed until you cried checking out all of the different websites and their predictions for snowfall totals? Paid professionals from all over the internet have studied the maps and they've come to the conclusion that I'll get somewhere between 2" and a foot of snow. For me, the knowledge and courage of the guys on this message board to put themselves out there for their predictions is something I wouldn't trade for all of pro sites' best and brightest.

I agree 100% Aresian.Our crew here have been steadfast in their predictions while the "big shots" at NWS have tap danced the last few days with their forecast.Even Rayno said yesterday NYC could have no snow or 6 inches,LOL.Yeah, Bernie, THAT narrows things down!

NWS latest disco says with the westward position now of the low, the Hudson River will be the boundary for the heavy snow.They are saying up to a foot in higher elevations in Orange County.Radar shows a lot of snow N and W.

algae888 wrote:All 6z guidance has come in colder including the rgem which now bring some snow into the city the latest hrrr also does the same thing.  Winds have turn to the north-northeast temperatures are falling the rain snow line is quickly moving south I'm at 37 degrees with a dew point of 34 it's snowing not too far to my North. I think we're going to be in for a pleasant surprise today

Al, snow should be there very soon.I think you are going to do well where you are.

36 degrees and rain is changing to, I guess it would be hail? It’s not freezing rain as it is coming down in ice pellets...
NWS now calling for up to 11 inches here in West Milford!
Going to be a crazy day!

Sounds very uneventful outside I at least expected to hear wind on my windows. It's silent. Not liking this. O6z nam has zero snow for me most of NJ and long island. Rb what happened there? It back tracked a lot.

docstox12 wrote:

algae888 wrote:All 6z guidance has come in colder including the rgem which now bring some snow into the city the latest hrrr also does the same thing.  Winds have turn to the north-northeast temperatures are falling the rain snow line is quickly moving south I'm at 37 degrees with a dew point of 34 it's snowing not too far to my North. I think we're going to be in for a pleasant surprise today

Al, snow should be there very soon.I think you are going to do well where you are.

if true then I will likely see the same we are basically neighbors. Al I hope your right. Where's the wind I thought it was supposed to ramp up at least a little by now.

HeresL wrote:36 degrees and rain is changing to, I guess it would be hail? It’s not freezing rain as it is coming down in ice pellets...
NWS now calling for up to 11 inches here in West Milford!
Going to be a crazy day!

Sleet. You'll snow in an hour or less (give or take) from now

jmanley32 wrote:Sounds very uneventful outside I at least expected to hear wind on my windows. It's silent. Not liking this. O6z nam has zero snow for me most of NJ and long island. Rb what happened there? It back tracked a lot.

Jman, if you wanted things to happen any faster, you'd want them yesterday lmfao we are already SIX HOURS AHEAD OF WHAT THE MODELING SAID IT SHOULD BE. It's coming, you just have to be patient. Trust me. You'll reach warning-criteria snowfall from this, you just have to be patient. The winds will start after the transition to snow as the low-level jet begins to really crank. Again, patience lol love ya, buddy!

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Sounds very uneventful outside I at least expected to hear wind on my windows. It's silent. Not liking this. O6z nam has zero snow for me most of NJ and long island. Rb what happened there? It back tracked a lot.

Jman, if you wanted things to happen any faster, you'd want them yesterday lmfao we are already SIX HOURS AHEAD OF WHAT THE MODELING SAID IT SHOULD BE. It's coming, you just have to be patient. Trust me. You'll reach warning-criteria snowfall from this, you just have to be patient. The winds will start after the transition to snow as the low-level jet begins to really crank. Again, patience lol love ya, buddy!

just waking up haven't seen radar temps etc. Glad to hear it yippee. The issue is this is going to cause a problem at my school maybe? The morning kids leave at 11:30 and afternoon come in then. Then the afternoon leave at 2pm. They are special needs and have special school busses fitted with strap in seats and they do not play around driving in snow. If the change doesn't happen now I dunno what's go happen with bussing.

Boy rb it is ripping here even ground covered. Does it stay snow all day here? If it does will be very happy. One thing that I am worried about is losing power if we  get the wind.

Nice Jim way ahead schedule it's snowing down to buchsnan. That is not far from me. If things keep progressing this way it'll snow here no later than mid morning it's prolly go b earlier

jimv45 wrote:Boy rb it is ripping here even ground covered. Does it stay snow all day here? If it does will be very happy. One thing that I am worried about is losing power if we  get the wind.

I said this several pages back, but I think once you go to snow, you don't go back. You snow until precip shuts off. And that goes for everybody. Dynamics ARE NOT leading this cooling; cold advection is. That's huge because it means there will be no, or at least much less, time wasted cooling the column with heavy precip once the dynamics start becoming established. The grunt work of that will be largely taken care of by the advection, which means more more QPF will fall as snow than most modeling foresaw during the period of best dynamics. Ratios will also be higher as I have already seen ours bump up to probably 9 or 10:1 already. A lot busts coming today to those who think no snow for the coast, at least in my opinion.

All your at 37? Jeeze how is accuwx reporting 43 here only a short distance away.

It's bed time for me (if I can even fall asleep lol). Enjoy your snow everybody (and wind, Jman lol) and I'll check back later!!!!

3km nam is like 6 plus and wind gusts get as high as 65 mph around when I get out work at 3. But they start hit 50 mark around late morning wow. The snow is really go compound power outages.

rb924119 wrote:It's bed time for me (if I can even fall asleep lol). Enjoy your snow everybody (and wind, Jman lol) and I'll check back later!!!!

won't b able watch much until after work. Keeping an eye on these kids requires a hawk eye. If I look out the window and trouble has prolly already started lol. At 1230 or so I can get a short minute to check in.

Can't see yet but I hear the wind starting to howl up here.There had been .68 inches of rain in the bucket before the changeover to snow.

jmanley32 wrote:All your at 37? Jeeze how is accuwx reporting 43 here only a short distance away.

Why do you use a site like AccuWeather you know they are useless and they are probably reporting from LaGuardia anyway on the National Weather Service site White Plains is down to 36 already that's more indicative of our temperatures

10z hrrr now has a snowing down to the city by 7 a.m.  the new one is only only partially complete.  but has a couple of inches for the city by 8 a.m. still raining here

Just got an alert on my phone from News12 Westchester .....Rain expected to transition into 2 to 12 inches of snow. No THAT is some range!

algae888 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:All your at 37? Jeeze how is accuwx reporting 43 here only a short distance away.

Why do you use a site like AccuWeather you know they are useless and they are probably reporting from LaGuardia anyway on the National Weather Service site White Plains is down to 36 already that's more indicative of our temperatures

im ashamed lol, your right i need a new app, what do you use? Anyways this does look way ahead schedule, snow is knocking at northern WC door, I do not have time look past runs but what did it show in terms of rain by this time? Wasnt CP still raining and rb? They turned to snow a while ago.

Update on the latest hrrr it now has 4 in of snow by 10 a.m. down to the city what a flip from the last few runs

Winds are definitely starting to pick up on long island

deadrabbit79 wrote:Just got an alert on my phone from News12 Westchester .....Rain expected to transition into 2 to 12 inches of snow.  No THAT is some range!

read the story 2-4 southern wc, but they are always behind and conservative. also pretty useless IMO just about as bad as accuwx as al pointed out.

down to 31.1 already and the grass is getting covered starting to accumulate on the driveway

School closed for Ms. CP, thank God I never would have lived that one down.