March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential

WeatherBob wrote:Uptown not out with forecast discussion and it 4:30 pm.  Very ominous!!!!!

Was thinking same thing. There are probably disagreements among forecasters since its the coast. I bet they are collaborating with other offices.

NWS Mount Holly Discussion:

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Highlights...High impact winter storm along and northwest of
I-95 Tue Night into Wed. Another storm system late this weekend
into early next week.

Overview/Model Preferences...We leaned toward the model solutions
that are further west nearer to the coast. The NAM/GFS have been
consistently in this camp, the 12Z ECMWF has trended much further to
the west today, and the CMC continues trending west as well. For
precip, the NAM looked too wet. We expect generally 3/4" to 1.5
inches of liquid, with the highest amounts near the Jersey Shore.
This will translate into snow further northwest, especially over
and to the west of I-95.

Hazards...Confidence is increasing in a high impact snowfall event
in the I-95 corridor and points northwest, with the highest snowfall
amounts occuring Wed afternoon and evening, particularly around the
Wed Evening rush hour. Snowfall rates may approach 2 inches per
hour, particularly northwest of Philadelphia in the Lehigh Valley
and Southern Poconos. Snowfall amounts ranging from 6 inches to over
1 foot are possible here. The snowfall will have a higher liquid
content closer to the I-95 corridor and points southeast, although
the wind will not be as big of a factor compared to the last event.
Nonethless, additional tree damage and power outages are possible,
which would impact recovery efforts. The Winter Storm has been
expanded southeast from Cecil County MD and New Castle Delaware into
the I-95 corridor and points northwest. Forecast amounts in the I-95
corridor are highly uncertain, so this area was also included in the
watch.

jmanley32 wrote:Anyone have the discussion for upton no not taking this lightly but NYC sees similar impscts and nw

Uptown has me on LI for a Winter Storm Watch like they did this morning, but they cut down on expected amounts by 1-3” island wide. . My WSW is for 4-7”

Wow Bill, Mt Holly already talking about next one lol

RJB8525 wrote:Wow Bill, Mt Holly already talking about next one lol

LOL! I know. That caught my eye too. They say nothing else about it. They just throw it in there ominously, like, "Oh by the way another hit coming Sunday, just so you know."

3k NAM HOLY NAM- that pink/purple is 3-4" snow fall rates maybe 5"

What is everyone thinking for the coast around Eatontown?

Angela0621 wrote:What is everyone thinking for the coast around Eatontown?  

As of right now, subject to change I think you start with light rain just after midnight Tuesday into Wednesday. It may waffle between snow and rain between about 6 a.m. and noon, but then I think you go back to all snow in the afternoon and it snows into Wednesday evening. The start as rain and mixing early will keep totals down, but the back end snow may get you a few inches.

amugs wrote:3k NAM HOLY NAM- that pink/purple is 3-4" snow fall rates maybe 5"

What an hour?? I thought that was ice mixing in

18z rgem looks like 18z nam

weatherwatchermom wrote:

amugs wrote:3k NAM HOLY NAM- that pink/purple is 3-4" snow fall rates maybe 5"

What an hour??  I thought that was ice mixing in

Haha, I did a double take on that initially too. But, nope, that's the heaviest snow echoes. lol. look at the top of the snow chart on the right.

50mm of snow

amugs wrote:Who wants some Candy??

Hey mugs, since you'll have a snow day, I'm counting on your measurements! I don't think I can trust my boys to do it for me!

18z GFS pushes the rain line pretty far north mid morning, but immediately crashes it back south and east by midday.

Frank_Wx wrote:50mm of snow

That's incredible 15 to 20 in for New York City on the rgem

18z GFS is real tight to the coast. Not a good look for most of Long Island or the South Jersey shore. But keeps it mostly snow everywhere west of the NJ Turnpike.

algae888 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:50mm of snow

That's incredible 15 to 20 in for New York City on the rgem

Al 3km too looks like we may really cash in this time!

Is it clear at this point if the immediate coast will have mixing issues? Or still up in the air?

adamfitz1969 wrote:

oh sesy Mama Mia!! Bullseye!! Soul we in business if that verifies. See I said Sr models were go pump out big totals let's hope this holds.

NWS Upton siding with warmer solutions for now.

12z NAM and GFS, which
close off the upper low earlier, have nudged the track of the
surface low closer to the coast from the 00z run. The 12z GGEM and
ECMWF meanwhile close the upper low later, resulting in a farther
offshore track and colder thermal profile. With an overall NW trend
of the storm track, leaning towards the NAM/GFS camp and thermal
profiles.

With the storm tracking so close to us along with surface E-ENE
winds, whether it be boundary layer temps or temps aloft, what
starts out as snow therefore mixes rain over coastal areas mainly
Weds aftn/evening. Parts of LI and SE likely even see a total
changeover to rain for some of the time. PCPN would start late
Tuesday night, with the heaviest PCPN probably occurring the
afternoon to early evening hours. PCPN should end everywhere by
daybreak on Thursday.

lglickman1 wrote:Is it clear at this point if the immediate coast will have mixing issues?  Or still up in the air?

It is the battle ground. If GFS and 12z are corect with LP track then coast will mix. If the Euro/CMC/Ukie are correct coast may mix little but not much

adamfitz1969 wrote:

Jesus 40 to 50 mm qpf I'm in bullseye

This is how serious it still is in parts of PA and probably into NY. This is from my mom she received from a friend who received that as an email from the State. We live in Pike Cty. Lol