March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map

Thanks Frank So most will fall during the daylight hours?

Math23x7 wrote:Don't really like the overnight trends.  If this continues, I could see only a couple of inches of snow for NYC.

You are of the Ben Franklin philosophy, prepare yourself for the worst outcome and hope for the best.

I'm just not sure you really believe half the negative things you post.

From another poster who knows his stuff - remember what I was saying about the H7 LP? HEre is what he talks about.
Mike you d othis with every big storm going back to Channel 7 wx board from 10-11 when I joined.
West Milford area, Morris, Sussex, Warren and Orange counties looking at copious amounts possibly on top of Friday storm IMO.

It’s been apparanent for days based on Synoptics / pattern and not modeology that this storm favors NYC N and W. The continued theme is a cutoff mid level center over the Midwest and eventually Ohio valley that will keep the surface LP closer to the coast. Regardless of this it will be associated with vigorous dynamics and exponentially high vv’s and lift. What that results in are some very high intensity precip rates in a short duration. All this said, NYC is in line to see significant snowfall. So stop panicking. Much less as you head s and e of NYC. Temperatures and eventual subsidence / dry slotting will hold down totals in these areas as the h7 low passes directly overhead. Nothing has really changed at all, so long as you understand the driving forces behind this setup, and not just look at surface outputs on models the past 3 days. Surface has adjusted to reflect appropriately mid and upper scale features that have been readily apparent.

GFS is going to play catch up once again!

Hi RES Models are locked in. Miller B storms are not that good S of NYC and East due to their formation timeline.

And for what its worth, the NWS reissued the warning at 6:13 A.M, after the overnight trends.  As SROC said, its nowcasting.  We have seen actual results differ from models, boom or bust, many times.  Not gonna stress till I need to stress.

I just like Mugs post!!

Heights are looking slightly higher along East Coast so far.

Trough definitely tilting negative sooner here so far. Bodes well for expanded precip shield, though I think not so well for coastal plainers. Gotta see.

rb924119 wrote:Heights are looking slightly higher along East Coast so far.

English please

12z NAM - overrunning coming in around 3-4am

Franks here, so I'll let him run this PBP and mom, see the my post immediately following the one you quoted. Should explain it

NAM is going to be better than 06z for all. Stronger system. Will pull in more colder air. Dynamics are incredible. Madonne...

Check out this UL jet

Storm strengthens a little quicker, could help keep some of the coast snow with heavy rates

[quote="rb924119"]Franks here, so I'll let him run this PBP and mom, see the my post immediately following the one you quoted. Should explain it [/quote saw that ..lol..I am incar hard to type...and edit..lol..husband maniac driver

700mb

weatherwatchermom wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Franks here, so I'll let him run this PBP and mom, see the my post immediately following the one you quoted. Should explain it [/quote saw that ..lol..I am incar hard to type...and edit..lol..husband maniac driver

Gotcha

Right now, this is colder for NYC/NNJ/LI but southern NJ and JS are raining unfortunately.

Frank_Wx wrote:Check out this UL jet

Definitely northwest, but that dual jet structure with the short, stubby lead max is gonna blow these QPF maps upppppppp. Regardless of its snow or rain, it is gonna be insane watching this run as a result of everything coming together for an atmospheric firehose on the eastern flank, and crushing CCB on the western flank.

Frank_Wx wrote:

That sucks

Moral of the story with this run:

1) Slightly east of 06z - which means the super tucked in solutions are likely incorrect

2) 700mb vort tracks along the coast, so there is a dry slow that enters JS, NNJ, NYC, and LI - this means rain/snow to nothing then back to snow

3) The surface low is still close to the coast - bringing rain to SNJ, JS, LI (NYC on the line!) but there seemed to be some CF on this run

The 500mb and 700mb low tracked over or just east of NJ. We need these lows to be further west. While the surface did improve in some aspects, I do not like what I see at the upper levels to be honest.

500mb



700mb

Frank, what kind of ratio will we have?

so these western solutions are gaining credibility?

lglickman wrote:so these western solutions are gaining credibility?

They've always had credibility I just think most don't want to hear or accept it. Things are still looking good if you're away from the immediate coast. Time will tell.

crippo84 wrote:

lglickman wrote:so these western solutions are gaining credibility?

They've always had credibility I just think most don't want to hear or accept it.  Things are still looking good if you're away from the immediate coast. Time will tell.

Look great for me