Pain in the Butt March 7th Godzilla: Observations

When will this thing start to look more organized on radar

Do the models have an agreement on Jersey Shore getting 8+? Why would Mt. Holly say 0.hahaha I trust our pros. Just looks very wet on the radar for me.

syosnow94 wrote:So Guy, we are looking at snow beginning to come down from let’s say 12 until 9 pm or so?  1-2” per hour avg. is this a safe forecast?

11am-7pm is a good bet. It could extend into the evening hours across LI. We have to look and see where the best banding sets up. The risk of dry slotting exists for JS, NYC, and LI still. Remember, we have to track the 500/700mb lows.

jmanley32 wrote:Was spitting some flakes earlier now nothing, I tell you it rained pretty hard, lots big pouddles this concenrs me on if and how it will stick.  Its going to take a long time to overtake all the saturated roads and ground.

Frank does your scroll SNY include my area? Something I have heard us considered south of SNY, patiently waiting to see something happen.  What happened with the snownthat was supposed to fall over night, it seems most were rain.

The overrunning was overdone by short range models. In March, we need dynamics for it to snow. Light precip is not going to cut it. It will fall as rain. Secondary low is just getting formed and our mid-level centers are nowhere close to us yet. We have awhile.

aiannone wrote:FWIW TWC now has 8-12” for the south shore of LI. 12-18” for all the rest of LI, NYC and NNJ

on the app i just see "a foot or more is expected" lol

Smittyaj623 wrote:Do the models have an agreement on Jersey Shore getting 8+? Why would Mt. Holly say 0.hahaha I trust our pros. Just looks very wet on the radar for me.

Personally I think your in a REALlLY tough spot. I don’t think youbsee 8+. Maybe 1-3”

Sroc- what do you think for Manorville?

12z NAM. Most of these accumulations are between 1-4pm

Just some rain

RJB8525 wrote:

glad to hear..Mt Holly is going all in for Sussex lol

DANGGGGGG.

33 in Flemington. Snow picked up a bit in intensity. From low moderate to high moderate if that makes sense. About an inch or a bit more on the ground so far. Paved surfaces clear but if this rate goes on for much longer I can see there being coverage on the roads soon.

aiannone wrote:FWIW TWC now has 8-12” for the south shore of LI. 12-18” for all the rest of LI, NYC and NNJ

But In Suffolk they are saying the "R" word I am thinking 6"-10" here in Stony Brook. Thoughts?

Good to see the NNJ boys will see 18"+

The secondary that popped is significantly offshore already no? This is a good sign

Can we stop talking about dry slotting on LI. Until it is actuallly happening. I want to stay positive.

White rain currently with these snowfall rates here, need those 2"+ rates to start accumulating...

Scullybutcher wrote:Can we stop talking about dry slotting on LI. Until it is actuallly happening. I want to stay positive.

I’m a fellow long islander too. But I gotta be honest. Looking at the radar down out of Dover Delaware it looks like the returns are moving up through most of Jersey into the Hudson valley. Very little over the ocean moving this way. Hopefully it fills is

Syo-once the low takes place Long Island will start to fill in. Watch the returns blossom over the next hour or so.

Snow rain snow rain snowrain.......

Coating on the roads. Continuing high-moderate snow.

Turned to heavy snow now.

40 with rain and a good breeze down here....forecast range is 0-12" of snow......hummmm

My fav!! Rain/Snow radar

First heavier band beginning. Just went from flurries to moderate snow in the blink of an eye. 33*

Sexy

Frank_Wx wrote:My fav!! Rain/Snow radar

Ugh I feel your sarcasm. There is nothing I hate more.

Heavier snow now in Hopatcong, 30 degrees and about 3 inches total so far. Sticking to everything.