Pain in the Butt March 7th Godzilla: Observations

Frank_Wx wrote:My fav!! Rain/Snow radar

Ugh I feel your sarcasm. There is nothing I hate more.

Heavier snow now in Hopatcong, 30 degrees and about 3 inches total so far. Sticking to everything.

Frank_Wx wrote:My fav!! Rain/Snow radar

Accurate

Follow the tail of the storm down to Florida, that's where I am! .03" rain, 68°

Frank_Wx wrote:Sexy

Hey Frank, is that the coastal low forming off the delmarva? Does that give an indication of a track, e or w?

Heavy snow

Just issued Mt Holly update:
INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES BY LATER THIS MORNING AND ESPECIALLYTHIS AFTERNOON
BANDS OF VERY HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF NEARLY 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY LATER THIS MORNING AND ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL QUICKLY TURN ANY WET PAVEMENT INTO SLUSH AND THEN SNOW COVERED, RESULTING IN VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL ON ALL UNPLOWED ROADS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED AT TIMES TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY. THIS IS WHEN TREE LIMBS MAY BREAK OR SOME TREES ARE UPROOTED, ESPECIALLY WHERE TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR 32 DEGREES. THE RESULT WOULD BE ADDITIONAL POWER OUTAGES.

AS SNOWFALL RATES INCREASE TO 1 INCH OR MORE PER HOUR, ACCUMULATION ON ROADS WILL QUICKLY BECOME MUCH MORE EFFICIENT AND THIS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ROAD CREWS TO KEEP UP. TRAVEL IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

Issuing Office: Philadelphia
Source: National Weather Service
Issued: Wed, Mar 7, 9:35 AM EST

dsix85 wrote:Sroc- what do you think for Manorville?

You and I are in a tough spot. Your like 3-5 miles south of me. Eastern suffolk is really a toss up in my mind. But the latest observations, yes syo I think the current position of the secondary surface Low is EF east of all guidance from yesterday, tell me that we may be in for some surprises, as it looks like the heaviest banding over LI comes in mid to late afternoon when sun angle begins to go down rapidly. We may be in for some serious surprises but Im just not 100% confindent in calling a lock at all.

Without steady precip temps keep slowly rising. Cloudy, occasional flurries 37* upper 30s make me nervous.

500mb phasing in the works



Secondary low on the rise (2 hour pressure fall differential)



Look for 850mb low to track ENE

Frank_Wx wrote:Sexy

No way that thing is going to hug the coast.

SENJsnowman wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Sexy

Hey Frank, is that the coastal low forming off the delmarva? Does that give an indication of a track, e or w?

North till about Noon then ENE

Latest HRRR gives me an inch at best, my temp is 35* now, its over for me... 12-18+ down to an inch at best...

Light rain with an occasional sleet pellet right now. Temp 35

Thanks Sroc- I concur we are in the battle zone for maybe 1-3 or a burst that puts us over 6+. Time will tell.. Dependent on timing and location of those heavier snow bands.

Franks radar is accurate. I’m a rain snow mix going back and forth. LP 100 miles east of Delmarva tracking to near cape cod this afternoon should be real good

mikeypizano wrote:Latest HRRR gives me an inch at best, my temp is 35* now, its over for me... 12-18+ down to an inch at best...

i wouldn't give up until your NWS gives a reason

aiannone wrote:Light rain with an occasional sleet pellet right now. Temp 35

I concur except I’m at 36.7*

Light rain occasionally mixed with snow getting very light out why does it look like the sun wants to try to come out and what time is this storm really supposed to be cranking

RJB8525 wrote:

mikeypizano wrote:Latest HRRR gives me an inch at best, my temp is 35* now, its over for me... 12-18+ down to an inch at best...

i wouldn't give up until your NWS gives a reason

Frank has failed me in my time of need... Anyone have a tide pod?

Smittyaj623 wrote:Is this rain going to stop and drop snow to Bayville, it’s 38*

TWC website now has us accumulating 3-5"!

TWC app says 8-12"!!!!    Not buying that for a second, I expect that to be changed any minute actually.

But hang in there, all the signs are positive for a major turnaround after lunch!

Update, TWC website now says 1-3" again.

Bayville, 40*, light rain.

mikeypizano wrote:

RJB8525 wrote:

mikeypizano wrote:Latest HRRR gives me an inch at best, my temp is 35* now, its over for me... 12-18+ down to an inch at best...

i wouldn't give up until your NWS gives a reason

Frank has failed me in my time of need... Anyone have a tide pod?

Let the storm play out. No doubt there is an east shift in track, but some of the banding may still get into your area

mikeypizano wrote:Latest HRRR gives me an inch at best, my temp is 35* now, its over for me... 12-18+ down to an inch at best...

And ironically on the eastern fringe of this board I went from an inch at best to 10-12"

Sroc we might end up getting the goods!

Looks like the sun wants to come out lol

Frank_Wx wrote:

mikeypizano wrote:

RJB8525 wrote:

mikeypizano wrote:Latest HRRR gives me an inch at best, my temp is 35* now, its over for me... 12-18+ down to an inch at best...

i wouldn't give up until your NWS gives a reason

Frank has failed me in my time of need... Anyone have a tide pod?

Let the storm play out. No doubt there is an east shift in track, but some of the banding may still get into your area

I will trust the HRRR, and I was on the edge to begin with so I was already in a bad place... Any shift east was a death sentence...

First time I can use this phrase for this storm-- HEAVY snow now in Hopatcong. Accumulating quickly.