Pain in the Butt March 7th Godzilla: Observations

38 now and pouring but i can see a few flakes mixing in. Anyone ever look up at the clouds in this situation and can see the snow a few hundred feet up? well I just did and can actually see all that white gold!

d

Yeahhhh I'm gonna go out and shovel the 4 inches that we've already gotten here in Hopatcong BEFORE that band comes in.

May or may not have had a shot of whiskey before grabbing the shovel. There's no judgement here right?

Heavy snow started here all of sudden north western corner of ocean county wow its coming down hard big fat flakes

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
1053 AM EST Wed Mar 7 2018

NYZ078-080-080000-
/O.UPG.KOKX.WW.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-180308T0900Z/
/O.EXA.KOKX.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-180308T0900Z/
Northwestern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-
1053 AM EST Wed Mar 7 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Rain, changing to Heavy snow mid to late this afternoon.
Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, are expected.
Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour possible during the
evening commute.

* WHERE...Northwestern Suffolk and Southwestern Suffolk Counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions,
including during the evening commute. Tree branches could fall
causing power outages. Be prepared for significant reductions
in visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency. Check local Department of
Transportation information services for the latest road
conditions.

jimv45 wrote:Yea Doc you are in a perfect spot for me being in a valley hurts the models put out 10 to 16 but i will most likely get half that. With this being March and temps not great people that are in lower elevations will have problems.

What your elevation Jim. I'm only at 600 feet Doc I think the same or near that. Are you near the river, because I've noticed in borderline storms are definitely affected by that and lack of elevation by the river hurts totals.

35 with 14mph wind. Heavy sleet falling. I'm ready, it can come now, before I have to take one more jab from my daughter! lol

DAYBLAZER wrote:Yeahhhh I'm gonna go out and shovel the 4 inches that we've already gotten here in Hopatcong BEFORE that band comes in.

May or may not have had a shot of whiskey before grabbing the shovel. There's no judgement here right?

No way. Drink on.

snowlover78 wrote:Heavy snow started here all of sudden north western corner of ocean county wow its coming down hard big fat flakes

Woah, nice CAD signature (Cold Air Damming)

At the moment we're at 37º with light rain with a few tiny flakes - the same as what I woke up to at 6am. About an hour ago it brightened up and I swear I saw some blue peeking out around those grey clouds.

But I know the worst is coming - my poor arthritic fingers are telling me so.

More snow than rain now in Cranford

Frank_Wx wrote:Madonne

Man this this is starting to shape up

SoulSingMG wrote:I just woke up, ran to the window, shoved the curtains apart and believe I suffered a heart attack. I've never scrolled faster thru the pages on here to make sure this beast didn't pull a fast one. Folks are gonna be shocked on their way home later.

ya no snow right? Just wet. School should not been canceled.

No one should be down on this storm (yet). But if you want to know what is next, click this link

https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t892p375-long-range-thread-16-0#131378

We have had snow all morning here. No changeover necessary. The new Upton totals put me in the 12-18 zone. Can that be right?

I don’t understand Long Island climatology at all so I’ll defer to Alex and sroc, but I’m prepared to acknowledge my map for there will probably bust - as in they’re going to do better than I thought. Happy for them though!

Hi-res RGEM

Nws, starting to see what we see I expect a WSW possible for Ocean County as well south

Light precip here falling as rain, then as it picks up at times it changes to mostly snow. Good sign for later when better forcing causes better precip rates. Game on!

Fededle22 wrote:We have had snow all morning here. No changeover necessary.  The new Upton totals put me in the 12-18 zone. Can that be right?

That seems high. Think I have you in 8-12

WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 15 to 20
inches are expected. Snowfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour
this afternoon into early evening.

Lapse rates...thundersnow anyone?

sroc4 wrote:

dsix85 wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

dsix85 wrote:Sroc- what do you think for Manorville?

You and I are in a tough spot.  Your like 3-5 miles south of me. Eastern suffolk is really a toss up in my mind.  But the latest observations, yes syo I think the current position of the secondary surface Low is EF east of all guidance from yesterday, tell me that we may be in for some surprises, as it looks like the heaviest banding over LI comes in mid to late afternoon when sun angle begins to go down rapidly.  We may be in for some serious surprises but Im just not 100% confindent in calling a lock at all.

are you close to Mattiuk?

About 20 miles west

About 15 for me.  Your actually only about 15-16 as well.  As the crow flys.  I just measured it on my radar scope app.  Semantics probably

just curious..can't pull up the member map..was trying to figure out where members are(we circumnavigated the Island a couple of years ago on our boat..Mattituk one of my favorite coves...)the member map would not open for me...you can move this to banter if you want...

starting to stick now to every surface here. moderate to heavy snow for past half hour now

We are currently 36* winds sustained at 16mph and .54 inches of rain...patiently waiting..well maybe not...sitting and staring out the window...lol

Man it is coming down hard in the extreame north western corner of ocean county wind Game is on

Huge flakes now and falling heavily.

I usually interpret large flakes as a precursor to mixing issues, but clearly that is not the case here. What causes the flakes to get so large at seemingly random times during a storm like this when I have all this cold air in place?

Frank_Wx wrote:

Fededle22 wrote:We have had snow all morning here. No changeover necessary.  The new Upton totals put me in the 12-18 zone. Can that be right?

That seems high. Think I have you in 8-12

they increased me to 12 to 18 also on fringe of 8 to 12 too but in the 12 to 18. Snowing for a while but big wet flakes in and out. No winds idd drone nearby said windy. Nothing sticking too wet and warm. I'm not sure what to think.