March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
+77
Artechmetals
snowlover78
Lnda23
cooladi
Dtone
WeatherBob
mancave25
snemiroff
Dunnzoo
dad4twoboys
jldio
Radz
Sparky Sparticles
lisalamb
petep10
heehaw453
toople
jake732
Snow88
Joe Snow
2004blackwrx
SENJsnowman
devsman
oldtimer
freezerburn
docstox12
brownie
HeresL
Math23x7
mwilli5783
SkiSeadooJoe
hurrysundown23
frank 638
emokid51783
Vinnydula
mikeypizano
Aiosamoney21
richb521
GreyBeard
Carter bk
sroc4
bluebythec
dkodgis
Angela0621
deadrabbit79
bobjohnsonforthehall
larryrock72
skinsfan1177
Smittyaj623
rb924119
nujerzeedevil
shawnerak
bloc1357
gigs68
jjlane25
Grselig
nutleyblizzard
essexcountypete
mmanisca
dsix85
crippo84
RJB8525
jimv45
algae888
Scullybutcher
Quietace
adamfitz1969
aiannone
amugs
billg315
Taffy
jmanley32
weatherwatchermom
CPcantmeasuresnow
SoulSingMG
Sanchize06
Frank_Wx
81 posters
Page 1 of 40
Page 1 of 40 • 1, 2, 3 ... 20 ... 40
March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
There is still great uncertainty with the exact track of the surface low pressure that will develop off the coast. At this point we're within 24 hours of the event and models are still in disagreement. Take a look at the GFS vs. NAM at the 500mb level for a second.
GFS

NAM

The trough is neutral and heights are closer to the coast on the GFS compared to the NAM. This is why the low on the NAM deepens but ends up tracking more east than northeast. This SLIGHT variance is the difference between 12"+ of snow or 6"+ of snow for many areas. The 00z NAM last night was a solid hit for the area (looked like other models) but reverted back to this more east solution early this morning at its 06z run. At this point, the NAM is not just inconsistent but also on its own. The EURO, RGEM, SREFS and others are more in line with the GFS and the GEFS (GEFS more bullish than the GFS OP which also says something).
The EURO OP and the GFS OP are actually fairly close. I actually think after today's 12z runs we will see agreement between these 2 models in terms of track of the SLP, then we can use meso-scale models to determine where the CCB sets up and where the best snowfall rates will be. I think an area-wide Mothrazilla is a lock with a Godzilla being VERY close to happening. We will see at 12z today which way models lean. Do they stay near the coast and deliver a Godzilla, or do they get pulled slightly east to give everyone a Mothrazilla while also removing sleet and rain from the equation for coastal areas. We'll find out very soon.
I will have a final call snow map later today.
GFS

NAM

The trough is neutral and heights are closer to the coast on the GFS compared to the NAM. This is why the low on the NAM deepens but ends up tracking more east than northeast. This SLIGHT variance is the difference between 12"+ of snow or 6"+ of snow for many areas. The 00z NAM last night was a solid hit for the area (looked like other models) but reverted back to this more east solution early this morning at its 06z run. At this point, the NAM is not just inconsistent but also on its own. The EURO, RGEM, SREFS and others are more in line with the GFS and the GEFS (GEFS more bullish than the GFS OP which also says something).
The EURO OP and the GFS OP are actually fairly close. I actually think after today's 12z runs we will see agreement between these 2 models in terms of track of the SLP, then we can use meso-scale models to determine where the CCB sets up and where the best snowfall rates will be. I think an area-wide Mothrazilla is a lock with a Godzilla being VERY close to happening. We will see at 12z today which way models lean. Do they stay near the coast and deliver a Godzilla, or do they get pulled slightly east to give everyone a Mothrazilla while also removing sleet and rain from the equation for coastal areas. We'll find out very soon.
I will have a final call snow map later today.
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
Rain getting into SNJ. Let's see how far north this gets today. A layer of snow or sleet before the main event moves in on Wednesday would help with accumulations. But I have a feeling most of what falls today will be rain. But we will see...


_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
Trough is positively tilted now but once it crosses the Mississippi fully it will begin its turn to negative. Look at all the convection near the Gulf




_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
Going to be interesting just how far north this precip gets with the 1st wave and how heavy it gets. Temperatures only around 32 in CNJ and with dew points in the teens, could be quite the sleet/freezing rain event this afternoon
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1041
Reputation : 21
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Union Beach, NJ
Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
If the tick east is real - and I have a feeling it might be because of the "push" of the confluence to the north - then there will be a sharp cut-off for areas like NEPA, NW NJ, and N of NYC.

.thumb.gif.c1ea1f8c701d2775d3d242c98ed5f41e.gif)

.thumb.gif.c1ea1f8c701d2775d3d242c98ed5f41e.gif)
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
.thumb.gif.a30f66de2c527a0185f8ebc5ce3e50fa.gif)
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
This is insane, all due respect. No reliable guidance supports these agressive numbers. NWS struggling this season for sure. Not sure what's up. We'll see if their 4pm has drastic cuts if this east trend continues (as they usually change snow maps minute to minute lol)


SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2850
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY
Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
Frank_Wx wrote:If the tick east is real - and I have a feeling it might be because of the "push" of the confluence to the north - then there will be a sharp cut-off for areas like NEPA, NW NJ, and N of NYC.
That seems to be pretty consistent on most models since last night. Once the storm gets to about the Maryland PA border latitude it hits a wall and goes mostly due east, then ENE. The TZ bridge seems to be the N/S border from there to 30 miles north where there will be a sharp cutoff somewhere in that 30 mile range.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
- Posts : 7077
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 103
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2850
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY
Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
SoulSingMG wrote:This is insane, all due respect. No reliable guidance supports these agressive numbers. NWS struggling this season for sure. Not sure what's up. We'll see if their 4pm has drastic cuts if this east trend continues (as they usually change snow maps minute to minute lol)
Totally agree Soul. I think 8-12” area wide from eastern NJ east. 4-8 NYC on West and North
Guest- Guest
Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
SoulSingMG wrote:This is insane, all due respect. No reliable guidance supports these agressive numbers. NWS struggling this season for sure. Not sure what's up. We'll see if their 4pm has drastic cuts if this east trend continues (as they usually change snow maps minute to minute lol)
They are forecasting an area-wide Godzilla.
That is still on the table but I am thinking area-wide Mothrazilla with isolated towns receiving 12"+ depending where the CCB or heavier snow rates form. Big 12z runs today. If models tuck the low into the coast like EURO showed yesterday then that will result in Godzilla snowfall amounts. We need H5 to close off fast which allows heights to amplify along the east coast.
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
EXTREME?? Bullish, imo. (Thx @weatherwilly for map)


SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2850
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY
Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
06z NAVGEM is a huge storm. Wow. Right to the BM






_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
SoulSingMG wrote:EXTREME?? Bullish, imo. (Thx @weatherwilly for map)
wow
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 3545
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 59
Location : Hazlet Township
Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
I wanna see the short range HRRR like models now inside of 24 hours. They do better in close like this.
Guest- Guest
Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
ARW's looks fantastic


_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
wow 24 for me! What model is that?Frank_Wx wrote:If the tick east is real - and I have a feeling it might be because of the "push" of the confluence to the north - then there will be a sharp cut-off for areas like NEPA, NW NJ, and N of NYC.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 19897
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
jmanley32 wrote:wow 24 for me! What model is that?Frank_Wx wrote:If the tick east is real - and I have a feeling it might be because of the "push" of the confluence to the north - then there will be a sharp cut-off for areas like NEPA, NW NJ, and N of NYC.
DEEP THUNDER
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2850
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY
Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
31 degrees, feels like 23. Winds NE at 8mph. Dewpoint 12.
Taffy- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 530
Reputation : 19
Join date : 2013-10-06
Location : Hopkinton, MA
Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
I'm not sure I get all the talk of eastward trends? From what I've seen, ONE model (the NAM) jumped east last night. That happens to be the model that was waaaay WEST at 0z yesterday evening. Not sure I would trust the model that had 20" of snow in NW NJ last at 0Z and then suddenly flurries at 6z run, when other models are staying more consistent. All the other models are status quo more or less. As for cutoffs, if we're talking about PA and far NW NJ, there's always been a good chance of a sharp cutoff there (look at my snow map yesterday, which was done before any east shift in the NAM).
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 4176
Reputation : 184
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 49
Location : Flemington, NJ
Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
jmanley32 wrote:wow 24 for me! What model is that?Frank_Wx wrote:If the tick east is real - and I have a feeling it might be because of the "push" of the confluence to the north - then there will be a sharp cut-off for areas like NEPA, NW NJ, and N of NYC.
This is the GEM LAM which is in MM for qpf
24 MM = .98 inches of Liquid (QPF)
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 14710
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 53
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
The top image is Deep Thunder and the bottom one is GEM-LAM
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
NWS snow map

WPC much more conservative
.png.67a934b11abd7f4b1476f4af53e44d0c.png)
ARW which have not wavered with this storm

From a couple for pro mets - 6Z NAM was a burp adn needs to be tossed for it SLP depiction. That should ease some of the panic in here

WPC much more conservative
.png.67a934b11abd7f4b1476f4af53e44d0c.png)
ARW which have not wavered with this storm

From a couple for pro mets - 6Z NAM was a burp adn needs to be tossed for it SLP depiction. That should ease some of the panic in here
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 14710
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 53
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Page 1 of 40 • 1, 2, 3 ... 20 ... 40
Page 1 of 40
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
|
|