Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:04 pm

This was the EURO snow map the ONE DAY before the January 2016 blizzard. Busted...big time.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:05 pm

EURO is not what it used to be. Very curious to see what EPS show.

by **billg315** Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:05 pm

Ahh here we go. This is the point where the people on the edge of the threatened cut-off zone start to treat and speak about the storm as a bust, while those still getting 8-15" of snow can't understand why there are people getting upset. lol.
If we're talking about sharp cutoffs to the N&W I think that is real and the Euro and NAM are sniffing that out to varying degrees. But that doesn't mean the Euro's placement of that cutoff is 100 percent accurate. Especially when other models have it well north and west of there. Still a lot of wobbling with that to go on between now and late tomorrow morning when this kicks into high gear.

by Guest Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:06 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:The GFS H5 is just as south (maybe even more east) than the EURO but it still has good snow extending north.

Is this an uh oh moment?

I thought globale were pretty useless inside this range

by **billg315** Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:07 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:EURO is not what it used to be. Very curious to see what EPS show.

Thank you. I mean I wouldn't write it off, it has value to look at. But it seems like forever since it was "King Euro." Three years maybe. It seems like nobody has given it much weight in the last year or so, or as much as it used to get.

by Carter bk Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:10 pm

Nyc and points east has no worries

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:10 pm

Oh boy...EPS might be worse than the OP. This is the worst hobby ever.

That said, I am confident in my map and remain hopeful the meso-models have the best handle on this storm at the moment due to the dynamics involved.

by **sroc4** Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:10 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:The GFS H5 is just as south (maybe even more east) than the EURO but it still has good snow extending north.

Is this an uh oh moment?

I thought globale were pretty useless inside this range

GFS and pretty much all other models have bands of vorticity on the NW flank of the closed H5 low; whereas the Euro did not..see image in my last post. I'm not sure I trust the euro that that is as far as the precip gets based on this info. Its a deepening ULL as it passes S of LI so the deform bands form around the cyclonic curvature. For some reason the euro simply cuts off the vorticity along this curvature. I'm not buying it yet, but if the ULL cwinds up even further S&W then what is modeled then def N&W needs to worry.

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 9 Bbb11

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 9 Bbb11

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:11 pm

Now I want to see the individual members. Maybe there are eastern outliers skewing this mean.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:12 pm

It's actually kind of a good thing.

It was getting to the point with this storm where if you ended up getting 6-8 inches out of it you felt like you were robbed at gunpoint.

by **sroc4** Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:12 pm

sroc4 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:The GFS H5 is just as south (maybe even more east) than the EURO but it still has good snow extending north.

Is this an uh oh moment?

I thought globale were pretty useless inside this range

GFS and pretty much all other models have bands of vorticity on the NW flank of the closed H5 low; whereas the Euro did not..see image in my last post. I'm not sure I trust the euro that that is as far as the precip gets based on this info. Its a deepening ULL as it passes S of LI so the deform bands form around the cyclonic curvature. For some reason the euro simply cuts off the vorticity along this curvature. I'm not buying it yet, but if the ULL cwinds up even further S&W then what is modeled then def N&W needs to worry.

by **nutleyblizzard** Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:12 pm

billg315 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:EURO is not what it used to be. Very curious to see what EPS show.

Thank you. I mean I wouldn't write it off, it has value to look at. But it seems like forever since it was "King Euro." Three years maybe. It seems like nobody has given it much weight in the last year or so, or as much as it used to get.

It would be a heck of a win by the EURO if its correct and all the other models are wrong considering how bad its been this year. My thinking is its just an off run but who knows? Since the storm is now under 24 hours away, it won't be long when we find out.

by **GreyBeard** Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:17 pm

Just took a look at the radar and it is showing precip. all the way up thru long island already but nothing is hitting the ground yet. When does that start happening? I'm at 35° here in eastern Nassau county, but it feels colder. My wunderground weather app says snow showers 'til 8:15.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:22 pm

At this point I will put more focus into real time observations and not the models.

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 9 500mb_sf

Heights along the EC are beginning to rise as the trough begins to sharpen in response to the phasing of upper energy across the upper Midwest.

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 9 Namconus_z500_vort_us_8

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 9 Namconus_z500_vort_us_8

12z NAM valid 19z at the 552 DDM height contour south of Cape May, NJ. In the observation above it looks like it's north of Cape May, NJ. Could mean the trough is trying to tilt neutral-negativity sooner.

Keep in mind all these models are adjusting to what is actually happening. When the EURO was running it noticed the higher heights along the EC right away compared to its 00z run last night. They will keep adjusting all day.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:24 pm

GreyBeard wrote:Just took a look at the radar and it is showing precip. all the way up thru long island already but nothing is hitting the ground yet. When does that start happening? I'm at 35° here in eastern Nassau county, but it feels colder. My wunderground weather app says snow showers 'til 8:15.

Not saturated enough. NNJ/NYC likely will not see precip today.

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 9 2mq6rtv

by richb521 Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:25 pm

Wasn’t it said that the further north wave 1 makes it, the higher the chance wave 2 moves northward the same distance or even further north due to its strength? Does that still apply here?

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:27 pm

SREFS hold serve. Big hit for all

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:28 pm

Also, there is a big split with the EPS members. They are either tucked to the coast or way east. Isotherm mentioned the eastern outliers might be chasing convection leading to CFI, convective feedback issues.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:29 pm

I HAVE NEVER SEEN THIS BEFORE. THERE IS CFI ON THE EPS. TOSS THE ENTIRE EURO SUITE.

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 9 Vrd81z

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:30 pm

HRRRRRRRRR coming into range

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 9 Hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_18

by **aiannone** Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:31 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:I HAVE NEVER SEEN THIS BEFORE. THERE IS CFI ON THE EPS. TOSS THE ENTIRE EURO SUITE.

Well that would explain things a bit lol

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:32 pm

Mt Holly increased amounts

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 9 StormTotalSnowWeb1

by **dsix85** Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:34 pm

Frank. What does CFI on EPS mean?

by **mmanisca** Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:37 pm

NWS New York Very Bullish.. I dont know..

Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Putnam-
Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-
Southern Nassau-
334 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM
EDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 11 to
15 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut
and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From 6 AM Wednesday to 6 AM EDT Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult to
impossible, especially during the evening commute. Snow will
develop during the morning and become heavy by afternoon. Expect
significant reductions in visibility at times. A combination of
the heavy snow and wind gusts up to 35 mph could bring down
tree limbs and power lines, creating power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

by Aiosamoney21 Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:37 pm

dsix85 wrote:Frank. What does CFI on EPS mean?

i believe it means convective feedback issues

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:37 pm

I feel like I've been reborn.

by **bloc1357** Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:37 pm

Upton increased totals too!

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
334 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

CTZ008-011-012-NYZ078-080-210400-
/O.EXT.KOKX.WS.W.0008.180321T1000Z-180322T1000Z/
Northern New London-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-
Northwestern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-
334 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM
EDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 11 to
15 inches are expected.

* WHERE...In Connecticut, Northern New London, Southern
Middlesex and Southern New London Counties. In New York,
Northwestern Suffolk and Southwestern Suffolk Counties.

* WHEN...From 6 AM Wednesday to 6 AM EDT Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult to
impossible, especially during the evening commute. Snow will
develop during the morning and become heavy by afternoon. Expect
significant reductions in visibility at times. A combination of
the heavy snow and wind gusts up to 40 mph could bring down
tree limbs and power lines, creating power outages.

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