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March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

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Post by docstox12 Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:11 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
jimv45 wrote:Dry air winning out up here! be lucky to get a dusting, but hey got the last 3 so good luck for our southern peeps enjoy.

20 miles south of you light to moderate snow now Jim but it took a long time to get to that yet it's still ahead of schedule of any model runs I saw yesterday.

Expect little give much will be our motto for the day. The further north you go the tougher it will be to get enough qpf. It's a shame to as I sit at 27.5 degrees. If we could squeeze out .5 I think we can get 6-8. Not sure if we will though, especially up as far as you.

CP, I think jimv and hyde are in trouble with the way this storm is developing.We are right at the very northern fringe of accumulating snow.Like you say, 6 to 8 will be great.Many of these models showed this.Maybe we will luck out with a nice band later.Was light to moderate snow, now nothing again.Ground got coated good though.

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Post by Sparky Sparticles Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:11 pm

Been snowing steadily all morning, yet we have less than 2" out there. The streets have been plowed 5 times already - it's an election year - even though once would have been enough. People are already out there shoveling and they're not even breaking a sweat. NWS is still saying 15 inches, though, so who knows how this is going to finish up by morning.

BTW, what is "freezing fog"? That's part of the current weather conditions on the NWS page for our area: "31º Snow Freezing Fog"

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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:13 pm

aiannone wrote:HRRR keeps getting worse.....
March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 37 Captur84

Lol. I am trying to communicate this. EAST NORTH EAST. Everything is progressive and the two pieces that were to make our storm a Godzilla slipped too far apart. It's elongated. Just look at obs.
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Post by docstox12 Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:14 pm

aiannone wrote:HRRR keeps getting worse.....
March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 37 Captur84

Wow, moving due East!
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Post by Guest Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:14 pm

dad4twoboys wrote:I found this ruler around Exit 44 Westbound L.I.E.  lol!


March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 37 Broken10

Great stuff

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Post by RJB8525 Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:15 pm

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 37 54763010
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Post by Sanchize06 Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:15 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
aiannone wrote:HRRR keeps getting worse.....
March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 37 Captur84

Lol. I am trying to communicate this. EAST NORTH EAST. Everything is progressive and the two pieces that were to make our storm a Godzilla slipped too far apart. It's elongated. Just look at obs.

Yep. You can't ignore real time observations like you can with models lol

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Post by Dtone Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:15 pm

frank 638 wrote:Snow has stopped this sucks

Basically a light mist/flurries now.
Parts of Manhattan actually has an inch or so. Despite what radar shows seems like steady precip doesnt make it much north of 125 St. At least for now.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:16 pm

Still snowing 2 inches.Temp went up to 33
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Post by oldtimer Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:18 pm

Joe S Yes it has started up again last 15-20 min Radar showing I should be in at least Moderate Yea its picked up good in last few

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Post by RJB8525 Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:18 pm

HRRR vs Godzilla

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 37 Kingko10
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Post by rb924119 Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:18 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:Going back to bed :-(

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 37 68f5d410

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 37 E45d5f10

He's just trying to verify his already busted forecast of 3-6" lol as WeatherBob et Al. have been saying, you have to watch the mid-levels, and they aren't here yet. considering the heaviest banding is already located OVER MARYLAND, DELAWARE, AND SE PA, I THINK HIS STATEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST BANDING OVER THE WATER IS DISPROVEN, just like Steve D lmao

So frustrating to wake up to a third potential bust in a month. This one hurts the most. You can see on the OBS everything sliding ENE. Quickly. Nothing in the Atlantic to stop it.

Dude, are you even looking at anything besides what that bumble is saying??? Mid-level lows are still over West Virginia, and are significantly further NORTHWEST of any modeling. Every single one of your models has the expanse of the precipitation shield undermodeled so far, aside from the HV. My dad in NEPA has three inches, which according to models shouldn't be, and yet he is now getting 1"+ per hour rates. Combine that with the further northwest placement of the mid-levels AT THE LATITUDE OF THE DELMARVA AND YOU HAVE A CLASSIC LOOK FOR A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL SURROUNDING I-95. You just gotta be patient and let things happen. Good god. I have no dog in this fight and have no forecast to try to argue for; mine has already verified in that we have the storm to begin with, and I'm currently looking out my window at a veiled sun. But for God's sake trust the evolution and have some patience. As this system rotates through THIS EVENING you will get yours. It's not moving east to west, but the other way around. I gotta step away, as much as I love to see the obs, because all of the negative talk and blind panic all over the Weather community is ridiculous at this point. Enjoy the storm, folks!!! I'll check in a bit later!!! Smile

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Post by oldtimer Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:22 pm

RB Thanks That really helps an old man lol

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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:22 pm

rb924119 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:Going back to bed :-(

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 37 68f5d410

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 37 E45d5f10

He's just trying to verify his already busted forecast of 3-6" lol as WeatherBob et Al. have been saying, you have to watch the mid-levels, and they aren't here yet. considering the heaviest banding is already located OVER MARYLAND, DELAWARE, AND SE PA, I THINK HIS STATEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST BANDING OVER THE WATER IS DISPROVEN, just like Steve D lmao

So frustrating to wake up to a third potential bust in a month. This one hurts the most. You can see on the OBS everything sliding ENE. Quickly. Nothing in the Atlantic to stop it.

Dude, are you even looking at anything besides what that bumble is saying??? Mid-level lows are still over West Virginia, and are significantly further NORTHWEST of any modeling. Every single one of your models has the expanse of the precipitation shield undermodeled so far, aside from the HV. My dad in NEPA has three inches, which according to models shouldn't be, and yet he is now getting 1"+ per hour rates. Combine that with the further northwest placement of the mid-levels AT THE LATITUDE OF THE DELMARVA AND YOU HAVE A CLASSIC LOOK FOR A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL SURROUNDING I-95. You just gotta be patient and let things happen. Good god. I have no dog in this fight and have no forecast to try to argue for; mine has already verified in that we have the storm to begin with, and I'm currently looking out my window at a veiled sun. But for God's sake trust the evolution and have some patience. As this system rotates through THIS EVENING you will get yours. It's not moving east to west, but the other way around. I gotta step away, as much as I love to see the obs, because all of the negative talk and blind panic all over the Weather community is ridiculous at this point. Enjoy the storm, folks!!! I'll check in a bit later!!! Smile

I think Rb just yelled at me. Kinda liked it. ;-)

We'll seeeeee, I suppose. But the concerns I am mentioning are not only "bumble's" — the HRRR for example, is deadly. I think that's why there's panic.
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Post by algae888 Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:25 pm

Just about 2" on the grass and coldet surfaces slushy coating on the sidewalk and driveway. Street just wet snowing light to moderately 31 degrees
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Post by Grselig Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:25 pm

rb924119 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:Going back to bed :-(

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 37 68f5d410

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 37 E45d5f10

He's just trying to verify his already busted forecast of 3-6" lol as WeatherBob et Al. have been saying, you have to watch the mid-levels, and they aren't here yet. considering the heaviest banding is already located OVER MARYLAND, DELAWARE, AND SE PA, I THINK HIS STATEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST BANDING OVER THE WATER IS DISPROVEN, just like Steve D lmao

So frustrating to wake up to a third potential bust in a month. This one hurts the most. You can see on the OBS everything sliding ENE. Quickly. Nothing in the Atlantic to stop it.

Dude, are you even looking at anything besides what that bumble is saying??? Mid-level lows are still over West Virginia, and are significantly further NORTHWEST of any modeling. Every single one of your models has the expanse of the precipitation shield undermodeled so far, aside from the HV. My dad in NEPA has three inches, which according to models shouldn't be, and yet he is now getting 1"+ per hour rates. Combine that with the further northwest placement of the mid-levels AT THE LATITUDE OF THE DELMARVA AND YOU HAVE A CLASSIC LOOK FOR A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL SURROUNDING I-95. You just gotta be patient and let things happen. Good god. I have no dog in this fight and have no forecast to try to argue for; mine has already verified in that we have the storm to begin with, and I'm currently looking out my window at a veiled sun. But for God's sake trust the evolution and have some patience. As this system rotates through THIS EVENING you will get yours. It's not moving east to west, but the other way around. I gotta step away, as much as I love to see the obs, because all of the negative talk and blind panic all over the Weather community is ridiculous at this point. Enjoy the storm, folks!!! I'll check in a bit later!!! Smile


You were forecasting this storm after last week's left noreaster. He was minimizing it. Nice going!!
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:26 pm

Brooklyn already has 4" of snow...

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Post by Guest Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:26 pm

I’m so confused right now. Are we busting potentially which would be a huuuuuuge coup for the EURO. Or are we still good?

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:27 pm

dad4twoboys wrote:I found this ruler around Exit 44 Westbound L.I.E.  lol!


March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 37 Broken10

Well whatever happens so far this is the post of the day.
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Post by sroc4 Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:27 pm

rb924119 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:Going back to bed :-(

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 37 68f5d410

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 37 E45d5f10

He's just trying to verify his already busted forecast of 3-6" lol as WeatherBob et Al. have been saying, you have to watch the mid-levels, and they aren't here yet. considering the heaviest banding is already located OVER MARYLAND, DELAWARE, AND SE PA, I THINK HIS STATEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST BANDING OVER THE WATER IS DISPROVEN, just like Steve D lmao

Thank you rb!!!  Folks listen...maybe even screen shot this post and post it for them to see.  Both of these guys are missing something here.  The 500mb and 700mb lows are still well inland.  

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 37 500mb_sf
March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 37 700mb_sf

This was ALWAYS a two wave system the second of which was never going to get going until afternoon Wed.  There are two surface low pressure centers as a result of this.  With two centers you will have competition for where the surface winds want to go in between them.  As a result yo get divergence in between these two centers rather than convergence and frontogenesis and you will not get consistent convection or banding..hence the fragmented bands.  This is going to change as we go through the afternoon and evening hours.  

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 37 Pmsl11


The h5 energy that wave one and generated the subsequent SLP, is being sheared by the confluence and the surface low conts to sit off the coast.  However; it is going to cont to weaken throughout the day.  Why??? Because....  The 500mb low is going to deepen as it slides off the coast...first E then head NE as it passes south of LI   It is then and only then that we will see the new primary take over and be tugged back west some towards the strengthening ULL.    Exactly how far south the H5 ULL passes willl determine if what they say is correct.  So while they may be right in the end, they will be wrong in their reasoning.  We have to wait and see A) what track does the H5 ULL take, and B) how strong does it get.  These guys are Cranky and Stubborn the 8th and 9th dwarfs.


Last edited by sroc4 on Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:30 pm; edited 1 time in total

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:29 pm

syosnow94 wrote:I’m so confused right now. Are we busting potentially which would be a huuuuuuge coup for the EURO.  Or are we still good?

How are the winds by you Syos?
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Post by sroc4 Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:30 pm

syosnow94 wrote:I’m so confused right now. Are we busting potentially which would be a huuuuuuge coup for the EURO.  Or are we still good?

Read my latest post above....while we may bust, we are no where near busting yet

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
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Post by aiannone Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:31 pm

sroc4 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:Going back to bed :-(

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 37 68f5d410

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 37 E45d5f10

He's just trying to verify his already busted forecast of 3-6" lol as WeatherBob et Al. have been saying, you have to watch the mid-levels, and they aren't here yet. considering the heaviest banding is already located OVER MARYLAND, DELAWARE, AND SE PA, I THINK HIS STATEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST BANDING OVER THE WATER IS DISPROVEN, just like Steve D lmao

Thank you rb!!!  Folks listen...maybe even screen shot this post and post it for them to see.  Both of these guys are missing something here.  The 500mb and 700mb lows are still well inland.  

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 37 500mb_sf
March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 37 700mb_sf

This was ALWAYS a two wave system the second of which was never going to get going until afternoon Wed.  There are two surface low pressure centers as a result of this.  With two centers you will have competition for where the surface winds want to go in between them.  As a result of divergence in between these two centers you will not get consistent convection.  This is going to change as we go through the afternoon and evening hours.  

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 37 Pmsl11


The h5 energy that wave one and generated the subsequent SLP, is being sheared by the confluence and the surface low conts to sit off the coast.  However; it is going to cont to weaken throughout the day.  Why??? Because....  The 500mb low is going to deepen as it slides off the coast...first E then head NE as it passes south of LI   It is then and only then that we will see the new primary take over and be tugged back west some towards the strengthening ULL.    Exactly how far south the H5 ULL passes willl determine if what they say is correct.  So while they may be right in the end, they will be wrong in their reasoning.  We have to wait and see A) what track does the H5 ULL take, and B) how strong does it get.  These guys are Cranky and Stubborn the 8th and 9th dwarfs.  


I agree with your anaylsis, but can you guys comment on this part of their theory. They mentioned the initial low that is inland is stronger than modeled, which in combination with an elongated low off the coast, it's causing that elongated low to be shoved further east, and therefore their phase to occur further off the coast.

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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:32 pm

sroc4 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:Going back to bed :-(

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 37 68f5d410

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 37 E45d5f10

He's just trying to verify his already busted forecast of 3-6" lol as WeatherBob et Al. have been saying, you have to watch the mid-levels, and they aren't here yet. considering the heaviest banding is already located OVER MARYLAND, DELAWARE, AND SE PA, I THINK HIS STATEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST BANDING OVER THE WATER IS DISPROVEN, just like Steve D lmao

Thank you rb!!!  Folks listen...maybe even screen shot this post and post it for them to see.  Both of these guys are missing something here.  The 500mb and 700mb lows are still well inland.  

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 37 500mb_sf
March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 37 700mb_sf

This was ALWAYS a two wave system the second of which was never going to get going until afternoon Wed.  There are two surface low pressure centers as a result of this.  With two centers you will have competition for where the surface winds want to go in between them.  As a result of divergence in between these two centers you will not get consistent convection.  This is going to change as we go through the afternoon and evening hours.  

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 37 Pmsl11


The h5 energy that wave one and generated the subsequent SLP, is being sheared by the confluence and the surface low conts to sit off the coast.  However; it is going to cont to weaken throughout the day.  Why??? Because....  The 500mb low is going to deepen as it slides off the coast...first E then head NE as it passes south of LI   It is then and only then that we will see the new primary take over and be tugged back west some towards the strengthening ULL.    Exactly how far south the H5 ULL passes willl determine if what they say is correct.  So while they may be right in the end, they will be wrong in their reasoning.  We have to wait and see A) what track does the H5 ULL take, and B) how strong does it get.  These guys are Cranky and Stubborn the 8th and 9th dwarfs.  


Lol! I am laughing out loud. Thanks tho—this actually makes more sense to me. Could this mean the HRRR for example is "chasing" the wrong (1st) wave energy hence the eastern runs of late?
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Post by Joe Snow Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:33 pm

https://2img.net/h/s9.postimg.cc/ce0ixryrz/uulwide.gif


RE -POSTING WHEN THIS GETS GOING WE WILL BE GOOD
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March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 37 Empty Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by frank 638 Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:33 pm

what time is this storm going to happen i am getting tired of this light snow with coating on the ground

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March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 37 Empty Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:33 pm

Big flakes under this band in Cranford.

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 37 5ab28845d6ba0_3-21rdar7.gif.1bda1909dcd448dc418c5d3782cbe815

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