July 2018 Obs and Discussion
+23
Frank_Wx
Vinnydula
nutleyblizzard
jmanley32
SoulSingMG
1190ftalt
billg315
amugs
Grselig
sroc4
Radz
Quietace
gigs68
weatherwatchermom
brownie
GreyBeard
dkodgis
rb924119
Math23x7
skinsfan1177
Dtone
frank 638
Dunnzoo
27 posters
Page 3 of 7 • 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion
billg315 wrote:Great pics!

skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 4476
Join date : 2013-01-07
Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion
Frank's scroll says it all. Every day like the one before. This is what it must be like to live in Florida. But unlike here, at least the get some thunderstorms to break up the monotony. Supposed to get more humid over the weekend...yuck!
GreyBeard- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 667
Join date : 2014-02-12
Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion
Thunder, lightning and pouring rain in Stillwater NJ , just started 5 minutes ago !
1190ftalt- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 312
Reputation : 10
Join date : 2013-12-13
Location : Stillwater, NJ
Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion
Nice rainstorm overnight, much needed! .87" here. Looks like most of the rain is south of Rt 80 today
_________________
Janet
Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
- Posts : 4672
Reputation : 67
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 61
Location : Westwood, NJ
Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion
This upcoming weekend may be interesting.
Quietace- Meteorologist - Mod
- Posts : 3683
Reputation : 33
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 26
Location : Point Pleasant, NJ
Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion
Quietace wrote:This upcoming weekend may be interesting.
It certainly does. Looks like there will be some left over energy sitting off the SE coast following the passing of the front Tuesday that possibly spins up as a subtrop or trop system as we head into the weekend. An approaching long wave trough, neg tilted if your the euro, draws it in. The approaching trough and building W Atl ridge has the EC sandwiched in the middle tapping into a deep trop/sub trop moisture fetch regardless for the weekend into next week. Parts of the area could get quite a bit of rain.
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 7790
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion
I am not sure about formation potential, however, I would agree with you that the area will feature more of an enhanced moisture feed scenario with heavy downpours and widespread significant rains. I think you may have to watch surface winds as well (nothing damaging, but gusty onshore flow). Also, guidance is leaning towards an almost stationary pattern of some sort during days 6-10, which would also feature more precip for the area. I will have to take a closer look at this in the AM.sroc4 wrote:Quietace wrote:This upcoming weekend may be interesting.
It certainly does. Looks like there will be some left over energy sitting off the SE coast following the passing of the front Tuesday that possibly spins up as a subtrop or trop system as we head into the weekend. An approaching long wave trough, neg tilted if your the euro, draws it in. The approaching trough and building W Atl ridge has the EC sandwiched in the middle tapping into a deep trop/sub trop moisture fetch regardless for the weekend into next week. Parts of the area could get quite a bit of rain.
Quietace- Meteorologist - Mod
- Posts : 3683
Reputation : 33
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 26
Location : Point Pleasant, NJ
Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion
Also, Tstorm threat tomorrow looks promising.
Quietace- Meteorologist - Mod
- Posts : 3683
Reputation : 33
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 26
Location : Point Pleasant, NJ
Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion
Quietace wrote:I am not sure about formation potential, however, I would agree with you that the area will feature more of an enhanced moisture feed scenario with heavy downpours and widespread significant rains. I think you may have to watch surface winds as well (nothing damaging, but gusty onshore flow). Also, guidance is leaning towards an almost stationary pattern of some sort during days 6-10, which would also feature more precip for the area. I will have to take a closer look at this in the AM.sroc4 wrote:Quietace wrote:This upcoming weekend may be interesting.
It certainly does. Looks like there will be some left over energy sitting off the SE coast following the passing of the front Tuesday that possibly spins up as a subtrop or trop system as we head into the weekend. An approaching long wave trough, neg tilted if your the euro, draws it in. The approaching trough and building W Atl ridge has the EC sandwiched in the middle tapping into a deep trop/sub trop moisture fetch regardless for the weekend into next week. Parts of the area could get quite a bit of rain.
The likelihood of a true top cyclone is admittedly low, but if you believe the Euro you can see the little dollop of energy that gets left behind from Tuesdays departing trough and subsequent frontal boundary. The next trough tilts neg as it makes its way through the GL. Do not be surprised later in the week if the energy Im referring to gets a yellow shade and a low prob of development on the NHC site. There could be some rapid strengthening to LP just off the NC/SC/Ga coast. Either way it will have a deep trop/subtrop moisture fetch and like you said gusty if not gale type winds associated with trop down pours with a neg tilted trough.




_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 7790
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion
SPC uptick for Tuesday's storms...


SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2850
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY
Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion
wait we might get hit by a tropical system or just rain associated with tropical moisture?sroc4 wrote:Quietace wrote:This upcoming weekend may be interesting.
It certainly does. Looks like there will be some left over energy sitting off the SE coast following the passing of the front Tuesday that possibly spins up as a subtrop or trop system as we head into the weekend. An approaching long wave trough, neg tilted if your the euro, draws it in. The approaching trough and building W Atl ridge has the EC sandwiched in the middle tapping into a deep trop/sub trop moisture fetch regardless for the weekend into next week. Parts of the area could get quite a bit of rain.
Thunderstorm threat todaylooks promising too. That's a lot of rain in euro for late weekend. Does sat look ok? What kind of totals over the weekend might b expected? I guess I been out the loop.
Flash flood watch today skins. I hope holds off till we get the kids on their busses.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 19476
Reputation : 107
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 41
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion
jmanley32 wrote:wait we might get hit by a tropical system or just rain associated with tropical moisture?sroc4 wrote:Quietace wrote:This upcoming weekend may be interesting.
It certainly does. Looks like there will be some left over energy sitting off the SE coast following the passing of the front Tuesday that possibly spins up as a subtrop or trop system as we head into the weekend. An approaching long wave trough, neg tilted if your the euro, draws it in. The approaching trough and building W Atl ridge has the EC sandwiched in the middle tapping into a deep trop/sub trop moisture fetch regardless for the weekend into next week. Parts of the area could get quite a bit of rain.
Thunderstorm threat todaylooks promising too. That's a lot of rain in euro for late weekend. Does sat look ok? What kind of totals over the weekend might b expected? I guess I been out the loop.
Flash flood watch today skins. I hope holds off till we get the kids on their busses.
Most likely a system that is tapped into tropical moisture, but there is a slim chance of trop or subtropical development. I don't actually think there will be enough time for it to develop true trop characteristics before the approaching trough phases with it and keeps it "cold core" therefore by definition it isn't a trop. system. That said the moisture feeding into it will originate from the deep subtropics, GOM so will be moisture laden.
See below maps: surface, 500mb, 250mb. As you can see below by Friday, after the front that we will experience today passes, there is leftover energy sitting off the NC/SC coast at 500mb (yellow map). There is a weak surface low sitting along the coast as a result. Notice the 250mb. The arrows indicate decent outflow or upper air divergence which enhances rising air at the lower levels. as this entire feature drifts N/NE over water the water is warm enough, although not boiling by any means, to support enhancement of LP deepening. The enhanced lifting mechanisms will support thunderstorm development which could cause feedback and a warm core development. The question is how much can it deepen before it begins to interact with the approaching trough. Once that happens any warm core characteristics will quickly transitions to cold core as the trough phases with the system. Again the chances are slim for this to happen, because I don't believe there will be enough time and the SST are not quite warm enough for rapid intensification, but either way the phasing will bring very heavy rainfall and very strong gale force winds into the region for late weekend. Im almost certain of that. My initial call will be by Thursday or Friday we will see some color on the NHC site for "a small chance to develop into a trop system.



Last edited by sroc4 on Tue Jul 17, 2018 8:59 am; edited 1 time in total
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 7790
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion
Yep its there.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 19476
Reputation : 107
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 41
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion
Cool thanks...I just modified my post to include some discussion...see above
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 7790
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion
I'm all for a good non extreme rain and some wind storm. Beats this boring weather. What's the timeframe? Will sat into Sunday midday be okay?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 19476
Reputation : 107
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 41
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion
Hope it holds off till Sunday night. Too many weekends this past spring have been washed out already.jmanley32 wrote:I'm all for a good non extreme rain and some wind storm. Beats this boring weather. What's the timeframe? Will sat into Sunday midday be okay?
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1879
Reputation : 41
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 57
Location : Nutley, new jersey
Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion
Its been so dry here not sure bout over there.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 19476
Reputation : 107
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 41
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion

nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1879
Reputation : 41
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 57
Location : Nutley, new jersey
Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion

Storm in coming to Ft Lee, picture from 24 th floor looking west to Teterboro Airport ! See the rain line about 1 /2 mile !

1190ftalt- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 312
Reputation : 10
Join date : 2013-12-13
Location : Stillwater, NJ
Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion
Now strong winds and just a big lightning !

1190ftalt- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 312
Reputation : 10
Join date : 2013-12-13
Location : Stillwater, NJ
Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion
Radar is lighting up. I spy a 'training' situation setting up over NYC/Westchester...


SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2850
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY
Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion
Cmc has a 1003mb tropical storm hitting the area. Hrs has a lp as does euro of course cc always overdoes lp.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 19476
Reputation : 107
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 41
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion
Heavy wind-driven rain at lga all flights are grounded for now
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2650
Reputation : 37
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 39
Location : bronx ny
Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion
wasn't that bad certainly not like the ones in may.frank 638 wrote:Heavy wind-driven rain at lga all flights are grounded for now
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 19476
Reputation : 107
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 41
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion
Absolutely crazy here approaching 3 inches of rain flash flood warning and still coming down
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 4476
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 45
Location : Point Pleasant Boro
Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion
Three lines of storm so far looks like another is coming in
Vinnydula- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 778
Reputation : 8
Join date : 2013-12-12
Location : Dobbs ferry
Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion
Yeah, actually did not realize it was more than one line, just thought it was a very long back end. Yes theres another line NW of here but it will probably die out before reaching here, the temp has dropped significantly and instability is pretty low if any at all.
Speaking of the possible system this weekend 18z GFS has a fully close LP and it tries to develop before turning into the area, this should be interesting to watch if it happens.
Speaking of the possible system this weekend 18z GFS has a fully close LP and it tries to develop before turning into the area, this should be interesting to watch if it happens.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 19476
Reputation : 107
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 41
Location : Yonkers, NY
Page 3 of 7 • 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
|
|