2018 Hurricane Season

Interesting read from a MET referencing Sandy & Florence. Would love to hear thoughts from our trusted WX folks on here on what he wrote...

http://www.guyonclimate.com/2018/09/06/extreme-temperature-diary-september-6-2018-topic-ridging-implications-for-the-future-sandy-and-florence/

Funny al no comment on frank saying long island is obliterated though. I be we said it would happen so bash on someone else cuz I think you all know that even though I get excited I am informed enough to know that its possible it won't happen but please if u feel u need to knock my comments and not others that are similar that's not right. Hrs does something crazy drops way South then back up coast hahaha. These models are nuts. 12z gfs Looks like it's headed for the area we will see. Don't wanna upset al so ill just say some scenarios look super bad. Some. And I thing casino gambling has far worse odds which I do gamble so go figure.

Euro coming in hot. Gordon's remnants vitally important to pumping the ridge off the coast to trap Florence beneath it and force west.

OH MAN this is not good and dont give me the compact bs - this would flood the NJ coastline up the yin yang with a stout HP to the north.

MOTHER OF MARY - SHE STALLS OFF DELMARVA!!

She heads out misses the area directly. But a turn out is not definite imo.

amugs wrote:MOTHER OF MARY - SHE STALLS OFF DELMARVA!!

batter beaches yes but no real wind or rain impacts if she stays there. I also agree mugs she will expand greatly.

SoulSingMG wrote:Interesting read from a MET referencing Sandy & Florence. Would love to hear thoughts from our trusted WX folks on here on what he wrote...

http://www.guyonclimate.com/2018/09/06/extreme-temperature-diary-september-6-2018-topic-ridging-implications-for-the-future-sandy-and-florence/

Generally I enjoy any links you or anyone else posts, as they help to educate me regarding the extreme weather that so fascinates me. Must say, however, that this particular one may have actually made me dumber. Which is not easy.

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:MOTHER OF MARY - SHE STALLS OFF DELMARVA!!

batter beaches yes but no real wind or rain impacts if she stays there. I also agree mugs she will expand greatly.

JMAN,
No real impacts - where IMBY?? This is big time hcane we are talking about here that will in this scenario speaking cause major flooding - look at the pattern not just the storm - a stout HP over head gives you an easterly flow with a massive plunger in the ocean piling up water hours before it comes into the area = bad sitch. Then it stalls to our south off Ocean City - you dont think a CAT 2 at that latitude will cause damage possibly major to the coastal sections along NJ up to LI??

18z Hurricane models

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:Interesting read from a MET referencing Sandy & Florence. Would love to hear thoughts from our trusted WX folks on here on what he wrote...

http://www.guyonclimate.com/2018/09/06/extreme-temperature-diary-september-6-2018-topic-ridging-implications-for-the-future-sandy-and-florence/

Generally I enjoy any links you or anyone else posts, as they help to educate me regarding the extreme weather that so fascinates me. Must say, however, that this particular one may have actually made me dumber. Which is not easy.

Lol! I just spit out my water. Welp, I dunno. All these anomalous events. And clearly the planet IS getting hotter. But I digress as this is now borderline banter.

Let's see if Florence is another breaker of the mold!

Sanchize06 wrote:18z Hurricane models

Umm, that cluster of beelines headed toward NJ makes me gulp. Can someone explain the hurricane model reliability vs. the globals?

SoulSingMG wrote:Interesting read from a MET referencing Sandy & Florence. Would love to hear thoughts from our trusted WX folks on here on what he wrote...

http://www.guyonclimate.com/2018/09/06/extreme-temperature-diary-september-6-2018-topic-ridging-implications-for-the-future-sandy-and-florence/

Im not going to get into this in this thread, but I will say this is written with the apparent knowledge of a middle school student. There is so much wrong with the information I dont know where to begin. That is all.

Maybe a new thread for Florence by one of the admins/Advanced forecasters?

SoulSingMG wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:18z Hurricane models

Umm, that cluster of beelines headed toward NJ makes me gulp. Can someone explain the hurricane model reliability vs. the globals?

Yeah, it's a very similar path that the GFS takes. The hurricane models take it west in the short term, but none of them really have that south movement and loss of latitude suggested by the CMC and to some extent the EURO

SoulSingMG wrote:

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:Interesting read from a MET referencing Sandy & Florence. Would love to hear thoughts from our trusted WX folks on here on what he wrote...

http://www.guyonclimate.com/2018/09/06/extreme-temperature-diary-september-6-2018-topic-ridging-implications-for-the-future-sandy-and-florence/

Generally I enjoy any links you or anyone else posts, as they help to educate me regarding the extreme weather that so fascinates me. Must say, however, that this particular one may have actually made me dumber. Which is not easy.

Lol! I just spit out my water. Welp, I dunno. All these anomalous events. And clearly the planet IS getting hotter. But I digress as this is now borderline banter.

Let's see if Florence is another breaker of the mold!

Indeed, it is very interesting at this juncture. But with this much time left, it seems that inevitably something comes in to gum up the works that no one was expecting. In the post-mortem people are always able to explain what happened and why. It's trying to see it before it happens that is the problem.

I highly recommend you read www.wattsupwiththat.com. Good info. Banter now over.

sroc4 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:Interesting read from a MET referencing Sandy & Florence. Would love to hear thoughts from our trusted WX folks on here on what he wrote...

http://www.guyonclimate.com/2018/09/06/extreme-temperature-diary-september-6-2018-topic-ridging-implications-for-the-future-sandy-and-florence/

Im not going to get into this in this thread, but I will say this is written with the apparent knowledge of a middle school student.  There is so much wrong with the information I dont know where to begin.  That is all.  

Would you say the strength of the ridge being depicted by models around the time Florence is near would be considered "out of the ordinary"?

Mugs I meant to any areas not along the coast. Like I would not see any real impacts nor would anywhere not on immediate coast but a tiny jog towards coast more would be bad for everyone. Gfs was bad for everyone.

Sanchize06 wrote:18z Hurricane models

those are scarily similar at this far out and def those o retaking a b line here yikes. But as some feel odds are not really there so something will prolly get in her way. We will see no more hype or wows from me.

skinsfan1177 wrote:

keep going she makes landfall on long island. In gfs scenario everyone even away from coast has bad impacts.

12z EPS ain't cute if you want any sleep the next week or so...

I'm happy to be back. Missed you guys!

Oh boy EPS  with a cluster of westward members. 
Lots if time still with many players on this field again that are in the PAC. Lots of downstream effects at play here.

SoulSingMG wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:Interesting read from a MET referencing Sandy & Florence. Would love to hear thoughts from our trusted WX folks on here on what he wrote...

http://www.guyonclimate.com/2018/09/06/extreme-temperature-diary-september-6-2018-topic-ridging-implications-for-the-future-sandy-and-florence/

Im not going to get into this in this thread, but I will say this is written with the apparent knowledge of a middle school student.  There is so much wrong with the information I dont know where to begin.  That is all.  

Would you say the strength of the ridge being depicted by models around the time Florence is near would be considered "out of the ordinary"?

Anomalously strong sure as its being modeled, but out of the ordinary? What do we really mena by this statement. I mean we have a very warm water anomaly(although not unprecedented warm), off the EC in a position to support a strong ridge. You also have a tropical storm simultaneously merging with a frontal boundary cutting to our west releasing latent heat that is aiding in pumping the ridge back up not unlike we would see if we had a strong GLC in the winter. IF this system where to make its way all the way to the coast it wouldn't an unprecedented track.

Here are 1903, 1933, and 1936. BTW all before the industrial revolution and this "stuff" about global warming

SoulSingMG wrote:12z EPS ain't cute if you want any sleep the next week or so...  

that's crazy and a pretty good consensus this far our. Still doesn't have intensity right but better than last few. When can they send a recon? We need that badly. Can they send one from Bermuda? But after that she's go have be pretty close to the USA to go out which is concerning.

Vagabond hurricane lol