NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

2018 Hurricane Season

+26
Vinnydula
Math23x7
bobjohnsonforthehall
larryrock72
oldtimer
Grselig
billg315
Joe Snow
nutleyblizzard
Radz
Frank_Wx
jwalsh
Sanchize06
Dunnzoo
weatherwatchermom
rb924119
algae888
frank 638
skinsfan1177
amugs
GreyBeard
SoulSingMG
Quietace
Snow88
sroc4
jmanley32
30 posters

Page 9 of 18 Previous  1 ... 6 ... 8, 9, 10 ... 13 ... 18  Next

Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 9 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by SoulSingMG Thu Sep 06, 2018 2:22 pm

Interesting read from a MET referencing Sandy & Florence. Would love to hear thoughts from our trusted WX folks on here on what he wrote...

http://www.guyonclimate.com/2018/09/06/extreme-temperature-diary-september-6-2018-topic-ridging-implications-for-the-future-sandy-and-florence/

SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2849
Join date : 2013-12-11

Back to top Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 9 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 06, 2018 2:35 pm

Funny al no comment on frank saying long island is obliterated though. I be we said it would happen so bash on someone else cuz I think you all know that even though I get excited I am informed enough to know that its possible it won't happen but please if u feel u need to knock my comments and not others that are similar that's not right. Hrs does something crazy drops way South then back up coast hahaha. These models are nuts. 12z gfs Looks like it's headed for the area we will see. Don't wanna upset al so ill just say some scenarios look super bad. Some. And I thing casino gambling has far worse odds which I do gamble so go figure.

jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 19243
Join date : 2013-12-12

Back to top Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 9 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by sroc4 Thu Sep 06, 2018 2:39 pm

Euro coming in hot. Gordon's remnants vitally important to pumping the ridge off the coast to trap Florence beneath it and force west.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 0.25"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 7650
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 9 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by amugs Thu Sep 06, 2018 2:45 pm

OH MAN this is not good and dont give me the compact bs - this would flood the NJ coastline up the yin yang with a stout HP to the north.

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 9 Ecmwf_z500_mslp_eus_9

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 14181
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 53
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 9 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by amugs Thu Sep 06, 2018 2:52 pm

MOTHER OF MARY - SHE STALLS OFF DELMARVA!!

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 9 Image.thumb.png.d05565b1667cc0952adf65a5381a6736

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 14181
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 53
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 9 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 06, 2018 2:56 pm

She heads out misses the area directly. But a turn out is not definite imo.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 19243
Reputation : 107
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 41
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 9 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 06, 2018 2:59 pm

amugs wrote:MOTHER OF MARY - SHE STALLS OFF DELMARVA!!

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 9 Image.thumb.png.d05565b1667cc0952adf65a5381a6736
batter beaches yes but no real wind or rain impacts if she stays there. I also agree mugs she will expand greatly.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 19243
Reputation : 107
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 41
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 9 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by bobjohnsonforthehall Thu Sep 06, 2018 3:04 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:Interesting read from a MET referencing Sandy & Florence. Would love to hear thoughts from our trusted WX folks on here on what he wrote...

http://www.guyonclimate.com/2018/09/06/extreme-temperature-diary-september-6-2018-topic-ridging-implications-for-the-future-sandy-and-florence/

Generally I enjoy any links you or anyone else posts, as they help to educate me regarding the extreme weather that so fascinates me. Must say, however, that this particular one may have actually made me dumber. Which is not easy.
bobjohnsonforthehall
bobjohnsonforthehall

Posts : 311
Reputation : 19
Join date : 2016-10-02
Location : Flemington NJ

Back to top Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 9 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by amugs Thu Sep 06, 2018 3:09 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:MOTHER OF MARY - SHE STALLS OFF DELMARVA!!

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 9 Image.thumb.png.d05565b1667cc0952adf65a5381a6736
batter beaches yes but no real wind or rain impacts if she stays there. I also agree mugs she will expand greatly.

JMAN,
No real impacts - where IMBY?? This is big time hcane we are talking about here that will in this scenario speaking cause major flooding - look at the pattern not just the storm - a stout HP over head gives you an easterly flow with a massive plunger in the ocean piling up water hours before it comes into the area = bad sitch. Then it stalls to our south off Ocean City - you dont think a CAT 2 at that latitude will cause damage possibly major to the coastal sections along NJ up to LI??

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 14181
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 53
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 9 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by Sanchize06 Thu Sep 06, 2018 3:11 pm

18z Hurricane models

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 9 06L_tracks_18z

Sanchize06
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1041
Reputation : 21
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Union Beach, NJ

Back to top Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 9 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by SoulSingMG Thu Sep 06, 2018 3:13 pm

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:Interesting read from a MET referencing Sandy & Florence. Would love to hear thoughts from our trusted WX folks on here on what he wrote...

http://www.guyonclimate.com/2018/09/06/extreme-temperature-diary-september-6-2018-topic-ridging-implications-for-the-future-sandy-and-florence/

Generally I enjoy any links you or anyone else posts, as they help to educate me regarding the extreme weather that so fascinates me. Must say, however, that this particular one may have actually made me dumber. Which is not easy.

Lol! I just spit out my water. Welp, I dunno. All these anomalous events. And clearly the planet IS getting hotter. But I digress as this is now borderline banter.

Let's see if Florence is another breaker of the mold!
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2849
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY

Back to top Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 9 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by SoulSingMG Thu Sep 06, 2018 3:15 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:18z Hurricane models

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 9 06L_tracks_18z

Umm, that cluster of beelines headed toward NJ makes me gulp. Can someone explain the hurricane model reliability vs. the globals?
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2849
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY

Back to top Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 9 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by sroc4 Thu Sep 06, 2018 3:16 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:Interesting read from a MET referencing Sandy & Florence. Would love to hear thoughts from our trusted WX folks on here on what he wrote...

http://www.guyonclimate.com/2018/09/06/extreme-temperature-diary-september-6-2018-topic-ridging-implications-for-the-future-sandy-and-florence/

Im not going to get into this in this thread, but I will say this is written with the apparent knowledge of a middle school student. There is so much wrong with the information I dont know where to begin. That is all.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 0.25"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 7650
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 9 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by Math23x7 Thu Sep 06, 2018 3:17 pm

Maybe a new thread for Florence by one of the admins/Advanced forecasters?

Math23x7
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 2349
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-08

Back to top Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 9 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by Sanchize06 Thu Sep 06, 2018 3:20 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:18z Hurricane models

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 9 06L_tracks_18z

Umm, that cluster of beelines headed toward NJ makes me gulp. Can someone explain the hurricane model reliability vs. the globals?

Yeah, it's a very similar path that the GFS takes. The hurricane models take it west in the short term, but none of them really have that south movement and loss of latitude suggested by the CMC and to some extent the EURO

Sanchize06
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1041
Reputation : 21
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Union Beach, NJ

Back to top Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 9 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by bobjohnsonforthehall Thu Sep 06, 2018 3:21 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:Interesting read from a MET referencing Sandy & Florence. Would love to hear thoughts from our trusted WX folks on here on what he wrote...

http://www.guyonclimate.com/2018/09/06/extreme-temperature-diary-september-6-2018-topic-ridging-implications-for-the-future-sandy-and-florence/

Generally I enjoy any links you or anyone else posts, as they help to educate me regarding the extreme weather that so fascinates me. Must say, however, that this particular one may have actually made me dumber. Which is not easy.

Lol! I just spit out my water. Welp, I dunno. All these anomalous events. And clearly the planet IS getting hotter. But I digress as this is now borderline banter.

Let's see if Florence is another breaker of the mold!

Indeed, it is very interesting at this juncture. But with this much time left, it seems that inevitably something comes in to gum up the works that no one was expecting. In the post-mortem people are always able to explain what happened and why. It's trying to see it before it happens that is the problem.

I highly recommend you read www.wattsupwiththat.com. Good info. Banter now over.
bobjohnsonforthehall
bobjohnsonforthehall

Posts : 311
Reputation : 19
Join date : 2016-10-02
Location : Flemington NJ

Back to top Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 9 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by SoulSingMG Thu Sep 06, 2018 3:21 pm

sroc4 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:Interesting read from a MET referencing Sandy & Florence. Would love to hear thoughts from our trusted WX folks on here on what he wrote...

http://www.guyonclimate.com/2018/09/06/extreme-temperature-diary-september-6-2018-topic-ridging-implications-for-the-future-sandy-and-florence/

Im not going to get into this in this thread, but I will say this is written with the apparent knowledge of a middle school student.  There is so much wrong with the information I dont know where to begin.  That is all.  

Would you say the strength of the ridge being depicted by models around the time Florence is near would be considered "out of the ordinary"?
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2849
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY

Back to top Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 9 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 06, 2018 3:31 pm

Mugs I meant to any areas not along the coast. Like I would not see any real impacts nor would anywhere not on immediate coast but a tiny jog towards coast more would be bad for everyone. Gfs was bad for everyone.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 19243
Reputation : 107
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 41
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 9 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Sep 06, 2018 3:45 pm

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 9 Image_18
2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 9 Image_19
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4475
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 45
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 9 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 06, 2018 3:46 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:18z Hurricane models

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 9 06L_tracks_18z
those are scarily similar at this far out and def those o retaking a b line here yikes. But as some feel odds are not really there so something will prolly get in her way. We will see no more hype or wows from me.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 19243
Reputation : 107
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 41
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 9 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 06, 2018 3:47 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 9 Image_18
2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 9 Image_19
keep going she makes landfall on long island. In gfs scenario everyone even away from coast has bad impacts.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 19243
Reputation : 107
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 41
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 9 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by SoulSingMG Thu Sep 06, 2018 3:51 pm

12z EPS ain't cute if you want any sleep the next week or so... Shocked

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 9 1c511510
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2849
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY

Back to top Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 9 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by Vinnydula Thu Sep 06, 2018 3:55 pm

I'm happy to be back. Missed you guys!
Vinnydula
Vinnydula
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 777
Reputation : 8
Join date : 2013-12-12
Location : Dobbs ferry

Back to top Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 9 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by amugs Thu Sep 06, 2018 3:59 pm

Oh boy EPS  with a cluster of westward members. 
Lots if time still with many players on this field again that are in the PAC. Lots of downstream effects at play here.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 14181
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 53
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 9 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by sroc4 Thu Sep 06, 2018 4:39 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:Interesting read from a MET referencing Sandy & Florence. Would love to hear thoughts from our trusted WX folks on here on what he wrote...

http://www.guyonclimate.com/2018/09/06/extreme-temperature-diary-september-6-2018-topic-ridging-implications-for-the-future-sandy-and-florence/

Im not going to get into this in this thread, but I will say this is written with the apparent knowledge of a middle school student.  There is so much wrong with the information I dont know where to begin.  That is all.  

Would you say the strength of the ridge being depicted by models around the time Florence is near would be considered "out of the ordinary"?

Anomalously strong sure as its being modeled, but out of the ordinary? What do we really mena by this statement. I mean we have a very warm water anomaly(although not unprecedented warm), off the EC in a position to support a strong ridge. You also have a tropical storm simultaneously merging with a frontal boundary cutting to our west releasing latent heat that is aiding in pumping the ridge back up not unlike we would see if we had a strong GLC in the winter. IF this system where to make its way all the way to the coast it wouldn't an unprecedented track.

Here are 1903, 1933, and 1936. BTW all before the industrial revolution and this "stuff" about global warming

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 9 190310
2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 9 193310
2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 9 193610

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 0.25"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 7650
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 9 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 06, 2018 4:40 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:12z EPS ain't cute if you want any sleep the next week or so...  Shocked

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 9 1c511510
that's crazy and a pretty good consensus this far our. Still doesn't have intensity right but better than last few. When can they send a recon? We need that badly. Can they send one from Bermuda? But after that she's go have be pretty close to the USA to go out which is concerning.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 19243
Reputation : 107
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 41
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 9 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 06, 2018 4:42 pm

Vagabond hurricane lol
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 19243
Reputation : 107
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 41
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 9 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 9 of 18 Previous  1 ... 6 ... 8, 9, 10 ... 13 ... 18  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum