Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

by **sroc4** Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:42 pm

sroc4 wrote:
oldtimer wrote:Stoc. GFS east. Does mean more toward the coast??

No it means her track turns north before she makes a direct landfall. As per the GFS verbatim she then stalls east of Cape Hatteras and meanders before drifting back towards the coast

She then makes landfall near OBX and moves inland. It still does not affect our region at all.

Euro should be interesting

by **skinsfan1177** Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:46 pm

It appears to me she may have taken a more northwest track

by **skinsfan1177** Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:55 pm

by **sroc4** Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:00 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:It appears to me she may have taken a more northwest track

We will have to see. I def see on the last few frames of the sat loop the shift a little more NW from her prev almostr due west track. These strong systems can wobble, however, so we will see if she straitens out at all throughout the day. With her current strength and longitude it is only a matter of time however until she does officially begin her turn.

by **sroc4** Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:15 pm

So this was the update given at 12pm after recons initial pass through Florences eye

Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1200 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

...FLORENCE BECOMES A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Florence
has continued to rapidly stregthen and has maximum sustained winds
near 130 mph (195 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure based
on data from the aircraft is 946 mb (27.93 inches).

However; after the second pass through min pressure ha dropped to 943 and a surface wind around 120-125kts (138-144mph) was recorded. Wowzer!!! affraid

FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 14 Recon_10

FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 14 12510

by bobjohnsonforthehall Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:19 pm

This is so impressive. Time lapse of the eye.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=loop_of_the_day/goes-16/20180910000000&number_of_images_to_display=400&loop_speed_ms=25

by **sroc4** Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:22 pm

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:This is so impressive. Time lapse of the eye.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=loop_of_the_day/goes-16/20180910000000&number_of_images_to_display=400&loop_speed_ms=25

Unbelievably gorgeous!

by Guest Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:46 pm

Been following along past few days. Not posting cause I’m bummed out we look to be spared. Unless we get direct impacts (at the very least heavy rains) I’m not enthused. I’m hoping for a major shift in the cone north right at us but not too hopeful. Oh well. Was hoping for Sandy part 2. And yes I live on the coast so I know what I’m hoping for seems sick

by bobjohnsonforthehall Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:46 pm

Models don't seem to be starting out with the correct intensity. Seem to be loading at 980 or so when it is at 945. Also heard a dropsonde may have just recorded 143kts?? Is that possible at this point??

Until the models correctly show the beginning intensity I don't think that the northern plots (PBX to Delmarva) are necessarily out of the picture. Right now the consensus seems to be just north of Wilmington NC. I think that might be too far South but I may be way off base as well.

by **SoulSingMG** Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:51 pm

I do not believe we know how this will evolve. I have one eye open on the ridge development/strength/position and this beast of a Cane whom has defied all odds thus far. I just heard the “AEMN (GFS) spaghetti plot would be devestating flooding for our region” from her but have yet to see it/confirm. We’re in for some surprises.

by **rb924119** Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:51 pm

I actually agree with him for once!!

FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 14 Img_1611

by **Dunnzoo** Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:55 pm

rb924119 wrote:I actually agree with him for once!!

Not showing rb

by **sroc4** Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:57 pm

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:Models don't seem to be starting out with the correct intensity. Seem to be loading at 980 or so when it is at 945. Also heard a dropsonde may have just recorded 143kts?? Is that possible at this point??

Until the models correctly show the beginning intensity I don't think that the northern plots (PBX to Delmarva) are necessarily out of the picture. Right now the consensus seems to be just north of Wilmington NC. I think that might be too far South but I may be way off base as well.

Bob I agree with everything you just said. With her dropping her pressure so rapidly there is no way for modeling to keep up and initialize correctly.

For some perspective....at the 9am update estimated min pressure was at 969mb. At the 12pm update it was measured at 946mb(she is already a few mb lower than that as of 1pm). Thats a drop of at least 23mb of pressure in 3 HRS!!!! No way models will initialize correctly.

by **nutleyblizzard** Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:57 pm

Just read from another board of confirmed pressure down to 942mb. We may have a CAT 5 on our hands later this evening.

by **rb924119** Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:01 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:
rb924119 wrote:I actually agree with him for once!!

Not showing rb

. Odd, showing for me lol

Now?

FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 14 Img_1612

by **sroc4** Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:02 pm

It showed for me too Ray. Im using Google chrome as my browzer

by **Dunnzoo** Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:08 pm

Ok works on chrome!

by **sroc4** Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:17 pm

Euro track landfalls approx 50 miles N of 00z, but still off on overall intensity.

by **algae888** Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:22 pm

We are far from a final solution every model except the Euro shows her stalling off of coastal North Carolina and sitting there for days before moving Inland or Northward. The best possible scenario is that she continues to move Inland and weakens rapidly otherwise they'll be devastating flooding in the Carolina coast with tidal flooding and beach erosion. And by the way the Euro has her at 7 a.m. tomorrow 971 millibars which is way off the GFS seems to be the closest at about 950mb interesting stuff

by **rb924119** Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:40 pm

12z GEFS depict a highly concerning example of why we cannot let our guard down. Even up here. Significant flooding would be likely for our region, along with some wind damage, and significant beach impacts.

by **SoulSingMG** Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:09 pm

Also, FWIW.......

FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 14 51099c10

by **rb924119** Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:12 pm

Looks at 18z spaghettis.....GULP.

by **SoulSingMG** Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:14 pm

Meanwhile, the governor of SC just ordered mandatory evacuations for the ENTIRE coastline Shocked

by Guest Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:24 pm

rb924119 wrote:Looks at 18z spaghettis.....GULP.

RB what did the spaghettis show exactly?

by **SoulSingMG** Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:28 pm

Bernie is going with a landfall between Myrtle Beach, SC and Surf City, NC. Says he could see it come in more north but not further south than MB.

by **rb924119** Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:33 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Looks at 18z spaghettis.....GULP.
RB what did the spaghettis show exactly?

18z Spaghettis:

FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 14 Img_1613

12z GEFS:

FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 14 Img_1614

by Guest Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:40 pm

rb924119 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Looks at 18z spaghettis.....GULP.
RB what did the spaghettis show exactly?

18z Spaghettis:

12z GEFS:

Thanks. Based off those verbatim we would be looking at some decent rains next Sunday thru Monday but no serious impacts. BIG YAWN.

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