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Long Range Thread 17.0

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Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by amugs Thu Sep 20, 2018 10:04 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
frank 638 wrote:Frank do you think Oct will turn out to be like last year or will it be below normal for temps wise

My definition of "normal" is -0.5 to +0.5

Below normal is less than -0.5
Above normal is greater than +0.5

I think October will finish above normal. Even though it looks to start out cool the days we get warm could be very warm. Not sure if the air will be cold enough to off-set those warm days just yet.

This can change though. If the MJO does get active and the Stratosphere continues to warm...early high latitude blocking may develop which would ensure a below normal October. I'm not seeing that quite yet, however.

ANd why can it get warm? look at the SST off the coast - very much AN and this will help propagate warmth when the EPO, AO, PNA drivers aren't there in one respect - it allows the WAR to flex its muscle and expand west.
Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 2 Cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1

BUT I love that AN pool of water in the Gulf of ALaska and the Aleutians - that may do wonders for a N WPO and EPO couplet as well as help the PNA feedback - can we get that over the top of the arctic? Remains to be seen but tropical forcing (ENSO - Weak Nino) AAM and GWO along with the QBO and low solar are also mechanisms we need to be aware of.

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Post by dkodgis Fri Sep 21, 2018 7:47 am

I think I lost my post from before so here goes again. My limited understanding is the Modoki El Nino is a more centered, warmer section of the Pacific and we may get a snowier and colder winter-at least I think this was the setup in those two winters 2013,2014 that Bastardi said would be very cold. Also, if there is high pressure off of Alaska, this encourages the Jetstream to dip and in comes the arctic air. I remember asking Frank about why Red Sox Suck had so much snow that one year and he said there was blocking above Greenland-which I think may be in place this winter. Add Mugs' comments on the solar minimum and get ya popcorn. Al this may thaw CP before long.

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Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by sroc4 Sun Sep 23, 2018 9:25 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Piggy-backing off my posts above the models continue to show what would be a blast of fall-like temps into the area late September into early October. The -EPO/+PNA forces a trough over the east.

GEFS September 29th:

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 2 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_39




The EPS are in agreement

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 2 Ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11

It will be interesting to see how long the trough will hold over the east. I think the period between September 28th (+/- 2 days) and October 4th (+/- 2 days) will feature below normal temps. How long it lasts remains to be seen. Most likely, this time of year, it is transient.

Here is the EPS and GEFS for the Sept 29th time frame(same map Frank posted from a few days ago).  As you can see the 500mb evolution is to temper the troughing expectations into the EC as we get in closer with the warmth still pushing back.  As you can see the -EPO is a key player in driving some exceptionally cold air into central Canada, but the PNA region is neg; not positive, and the WAR is fighting back.  Result is a trough that swings through the region cooling us off but the warmth returns behind it.  

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 2 Ecmwf-10
Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 2 Gfs-en10


I would have to agree with Frank here in saying that these cool shots and troughing into the Easten third of the country are coming; however, IMO for now they will most likely be transient, but could be frequent.  On the heals of the cool shots, like Mugsy posted above regarding the SSTA off the EC, the western Atlantic ridge (WAR) will still flex; therefore, I do believe the warmth will likely balance out the cool such that when we look at the temp anomalies over the next 2-4week stretch in hindsight they will likely be around N to maybe slight above normal.  

In the tropical thread I had mentioned that there was an MJO pulse coming out into phases 8-1 with some decent amplitude.  As you can see below that is still the case.  

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 2 ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small
Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 2 Diagram_40days_forecast_GEFSBC_member

Some of you might hear phase 8-1 and think heck these are usually great phases for cold into the east.  In November though March you would be correct; however, at different times of year the phases of the MJO behave differently due to seasonal variations.  Below are the temperature composites for the MJO phases that correlate with different times of the year.  There are 4 images below.  .  First is August/Sept/Oct (ASO), then SON, then OND, and finally NDJ.  Follow the evolution for phases 8-1.  Notice 8-1 are actually warm phases of the MJO in the east until the OND composite when you see the transition to cool for 8 warm for 1.  As you head into the heart of winter 8-1 become cool phases throughout.  Obv we are still in Sept but close to Oct.  So if you avg out the ASO, SON composite we still see that in general we should see overall AN temp anomalies in our neck of the woods when the MJO is in phases 8-1, esp when there is amplitude like the forecast suggests.  

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 2 Aso10
Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 2 Son10
Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 2 Ond10
Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 2 Ndj10

Ill leave you with one last image.  Below is the current global SST anomalies.  In general where you see the large areas of warmer anomalies is where you would expect lower pressures due to rising warmer air.  The current configuration suggests that if this were to hold into the winter any MJO pulses would likely feedback on themselves in the more favorable phases for cold and snow for the East.  

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 2 Sst_co11


This is in stark contrast to last year.  For me pay particular attention north of Australia surrounding the Phillipenes.  This area is associated with phases 3-6 (warm phases in winter).  This was a fear of mine last year and we did in fact develop such a feedback loop that resulted in several exceptionally strong pulses through these warm phases and a long stretch of very warm temp anomalies in our neck of the woods from mid Jan through most of Feb.   Here was your SSTA configuration last winter and the MJO(notice the strength through all of Jan:

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 2 Global10
Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 2 Ecmf_f10


As we sit right now, IF the ENSO region conts to evolve as expected, either weak Modoki el Nino or warm Neutral, and the Indian ocean SSTA configuration doesn't do anything drastically different and the N Atlantic does not drastically alter its SSTA, then IMHO we are in really great (not good) position for the winter season.


Last edited by sroc4 on Mon Sep 24, 2018 8:36 am; edited 3 times in total

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by dkodgis Sun Sep 23, 2018 9:40 am

Between the circle and oval there is a rectangle-in the last image you left us with and not the images from last year-and I see the blue above that rectangle. Is that the Modoki showing up? I hear Modoki and I associate the word “centered”.
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Post by sroc4 Sun Sep 23, 2018 9:50 am

dkodgis wrote:Between the circle and oval there is a rectangle-in the last image you left us with and not the images from last year-and I see the blue above that rectangle. Is that the Modoki showing up? I hear Modoki and I associate the word “centered”.

I added some labels to the image your referring. See the image below then refer back to our current SSA above.

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/enmodoki_home_s.html.en

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 2 Modoki10

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by rb924119 Sun Sep 23, 2018 10:17 am

Great post, Scott!! I was looking into things on my break at work last night, and I think that I might have caught a glimpse of some more substantial pattern change precursors that would set us up for a Week 3 of October to Week 1 of November (give or take a couple days) transitional period into a pattern that might resemble our time-mean winter pattern (wink wink). However, that was based on only about 20 minutes of analysis and I intend to follow up with further details, be they good or bad. I'll let our more knowledgeable posters/leaders gnaw on what I might be getting at for now, as I have to go to my second job, and finish out the home stretch of my 30-hour day aha

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Post by rb924119 Sun Sep 23, 2018 10:18 am

As a hint, Scott has already started revealing one piece of the magnificent puzzle, but there are others......

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Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by amugs Sun Sep 23, 2018 10:22 pm

Scott to add one area on your map you left out, bye most excellent post, the warm analogs water in the Gulf of Alaska  and AluetIan Islands Westward region, that means a N WPO and EPO. This will help feedback and inject the cold Siberia train through and into our area as in  203-14 and 2014-15 winters 
This will also help over the tip raise the heights to help form blocking in the AO and NAO regions. 
Just my observations at this time.
Canada is off the charts for snow this September in Alberta province and Hudson Bay is very anamoulously cold, that should freeze by November. The cold and snow in Greenland is extreme as well. This is important to help promote cold as we move forward.he,k even western US mountain regions seeing snows, not rare but a good indication. 
Remember that low solar, sunspots, equals low radiance which also means much more cloudiness. This will.promote more precipitation and cooler temps. There is a chart that shows this over the tropical equator region and N of 40N. I have to find this online and share, but it is very iteresti g to see the correlation.
Also, geomagnetic events will continue to be active like EQ and Volcanoe activities. Well just yesterday I read an arricle.on how 4 Supervcanoes - Iceland, Italy, Peru and south pacific were gurgling some the venting type of gurgling images showing magma starting to build. Could be 100 years before anyone of these blow but interesting to see nonetheless in this cyclenof our planet and sAR system.

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Post by dkodgis Sun Sep 23, 2018 10:43 pm

Out of curiosity, what does Joe Bastardi say about this wintet. I was really impressed with his call on those two cold winters five years ago. If he is on board, I am moving to FL!
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Post by amugs Mon Sep 24, 2018 12:05 pm

dkodgis wrote:Out of curiosity, what does Joe Bastardi say about this wintet. I was really impressed with his call on those two cold winters five years ago. If he is on board, I am moving to FL!
He is saying temp are going to be 1 to 3 BN and Snowfall 133% AN. Start packing LOL!!

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Post by Grselig Mon Sep 24, 2018 3:57 pm

amugs wrote:
dkodgis wrote:Out of curiosity, what does Joe Bastardi say about this wintet. I was really impressed with his call on those two cold winters five years ago. If he is on board, I am moving to FL!
He is saying temp are going to be 1 to 3 BN and Snowfall 133% AN. Start packing LOL!!

LIKE
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Post by dkodgis Mon Sep 24, 2018 4:30 pm

I’m packing just in case. But I like it too
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Post by amugs Mon Sep 24, 2018 7:07 pm

Here are his maps your very welcome!! Laughing

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 2 Decemb10
Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 2 Winter10

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by Quietace Mon Sep 24, 2018 7:41 pm

amugs wrote:Here are his maps your very welcome!! Laughing

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 2 Decemb10
Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 2 Winter10
Tallahassee averages 0" of snowfall a year. If I do this difficult math out, 167% of normal is still 0. Parts of this make no sense.
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Post by sroc4 Tue Sep 25, 2018 7:42 am

Quietace wrote:
amugs wrote:Here are his maps your very welcome!! Laughing

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 2 Decemb10
Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 2 Winter10
Tallahassee averages 0" of snowfall a year. If I do this difficult math out, 167% of normal is still 0. Parts of this make no sense.

Sounds like you may be reading into this a little too deep.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by dkodgis Tue Sep 25, 2018 9:18 am

On my phone, I thought the JB maps posted by Mugs showed a 1 to 3 degree departure from the average temp. Looking at it on full screen, I see it is predicted actual temp. OK I may stay around for those temps. Why pay high property and school taxes in NY if not for the change of seasons.
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Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by Quietace Tue Sep 25, 2018 12:02 pm

sroc4 wrote:
Quietace wrote:
amugs wrote:Here are his maps your very welcome!! Laughing

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 2 Decemb10
Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 2 Winter10
Tallahassee averages 0" of snowfall a year. If I do this difficult math out, 167% of normal is still 0. Parts of this make no sense.

Sounds like you may be reading into this a little too deep.
Well, If if I take a look at this again, it still says that this is a map forecasting the percent of normal snowfall from first to last flake for this winter. So if I once again do the mental math, well it still adds up...
So no, I do not think I am reading into this too deep, in fact, I am taking this quite literally. I am not disagreeing many forcings are going to be very favorable this winter for the east coast if you enjoy cold and snow; but rather the faulty communication in this map.
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Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by sroc4 Tue Sep 25, 2018 12:30 pm

Quietace wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
Quietace wrote:
amugs wrote:Here are his maps your very welcome!! Laughing

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 2 Decemb10
Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 2 Winter10
Tallahassee averages 0" of snowfall a year. If I do this difficult math out, 167% of normal is still 0. Parts of this make no sense.

Sounds like you may be reading into this a little too deep.
Well, If if I take a look at this again, it still says that this is a map forecasting the percent of normal snowfall from first to last flake for this winter. So if I once again do the mental math, well it still adds up...
So no, I do not think I am reading into this too deep, in fact, I am taking this quite literally. I am not disagreeing many forcings are going to be very favorable this winter for the east coast if you enjoy cold and snow; but rather the faulty communication in this map.  

So if you have a specific backyard that avgs 0.0 but you think this year that location might actually see 1/2-1” how do you propose you forecast that with this sort of lead time? Or let’s say the same location which avgs 0.0” per year and also never even sees snow but you think there is a chance that it snows but never sticks how do you propose you forecast that with this lead time.

Maybe your not but it appears from my vantage point you may be reading into a little too deep given the lead time.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by rb924119 Wed Sep 26, 2018 3:23 pm

Quietace wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
Quietace wrote:
amugs wrote:Here are his maps your very welcome!! Laughing

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 2 Decemb10
Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 2 Winter10
Tallahassee averages 0" of snowfall a year. If I do this difficult math out, 167% of normal is still 0. Parts of this make no sense.

Sounds like you may be reading into this a little too deep.
Well, If if I take a look at this again, it still says that this is a map forecasting the percent of normal snowfall from first to last flake for this winter. So if I once again do the mental math, well it still adds up...
So no, I do not think I am reading into this too deep, in fact, I am taking this quite literally. I am not disagreeing many forcings are going to be very favorable this winter for the east coast if you enjoy cold and snow; but rather the faulty communication in this map.  

Honestly, I think this is a petty discussion, BUT, to play Devil's Advocate here I offer the following:

If you think about this statistically, it's a valid forecast. Using Tallahassee, the statistical bell curve is centered on 0.0". Now, obviously, you can't have less than 0.0", so we are only looking at the positive side of the curve. No matter how steep the tail, there is still a statistical tail to snowfall events. As such, even though 100% of "normal" in this case is 0.0", he is stating that this season's annual snowfall will be 67% greater than "normal". Mathematically, no, you can't make that work you have clearly stated. However, statistically, it is sensical as he is also forecasting a 67% chance of receiving above-average snowfall. Now, if you account for a 67% shift to the right of the statistical bell curve, you are shifting the curve by exactly 1-sigma (fun fact), but as a result of this shift, you can now extract the expected snowfall amount by overlaying this new shifted bell curve over the original statistical bell curve, which willntherefore be a non-zero amount.

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Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by nutleyblizzard Wed Sep 26, 2018 3:38 pm

rb924119 wrote:
Quietace wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
Quietace wrote:
amugs wrote:Here are his maps your very welcome!! Laughing

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 2 Decemb10
Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 2 Winter10
Tallahassee averages 0" of snowfall a year. If I do this difficult math out, 167% of normal is still 0. Parts of this make no sense.

Sounds like you may be reading into this a little too deep.
Well, If if I take a look at this again, it still says that this is a map forecasting the percent of normal snowfall from first to last flake for this winter. So if I once again do the mental math, well it still adds up...
So no, I do not think I am reading into this too deep, in fact, I am taking this quite literally. I am not disagreeing many forcings are going to be very favorable this winter for the east coast if you enjoy cold and snow; but rather the faulty communication in this map.  

Honestly, I think this is a petty discussion, BUT, to play Devil's Advocate here I offer the following:

If you think about this statistically, it's a valid forecast. Using Tallahassee, the statistical bell curve is centered on 0.0". Now, obviously, you can't have less than 0.0", so we are only looking at the positive side of the curve. No matter how steep the tail, there is still a statistical tail to snowfall events. As such, even though 100% of "normal" in this case is 0.0", he is stating that this season's annual snowfall will be 67% greater than "normal". Mathematically, no, you can't make that work you have clearly stated. However, statistically, it is sensical as he is also forecasting a 67% chance of receiving above-average snowfall. Now, if you account for a 67% shift to the right of the statistical bell curve, you are shifting the curve by exactly 1-sigma (fun fact), but as a result of this shift, you can now extract the expected snowfall amount by overlaying this new shifted bell curve over the original statistical bell curve, which willntherefore be a non-zero amount.
I tell you one thing with the way the Pacific is looking along with other factors seemingly in our favor, you can move that 167% into our neck of the woods. Looking forward to many late nights of model tracking.
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Post by dkodgis Wed Sep 26, 2018 3:55 pm

And snowblowing tje driveway, too
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Post by rb924119 Wed Sep 26, 2018 10:59 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Quietace wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
Quietace wrote:
amugs wrote:Here are his maps your very welcome!! Laughing

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 2 Decemb10
Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 2 Winter10
Tallahassee averages 0" of snowfall a year. If I do this difficult math out, 167% of normal is still 0. Parts of this make no sense.

Sounds like you may be reading into this a little too deep.
Well, If if I take a look at this again, it still says that this is a map forecasting the percent of normal snowfall from first to last flake for this winter. So if I once again do the mental math, well it still adds up...
So no, I do not think I am reading into this too deep, in fact, I am taking this quite literally. I am not disagreeing many forcings are going to be very favorable this winter for the east coast if you enjoy cold and snow; but rather the faulty communication in this map.  

Honestly, I think this is a petty discussion, BUT, to play Devil's Advocate here I offer the following:

If you think about this statistically, it's a valid forecast. Using Tallahassee, the statistical bell curve is centered on 0.0". Now, obviously, you can't have less than 0.0", so we are only looking at the positive side of the curve. No matter how steep the tail, there is still a statistical tail to snowfall events. As such, even though 100% of "normal" in this case is 0.0", he is stating that this season's annual snowfall will be 67% greater than "normal". Mathematically, no, you can't make that work you have clearly stated. However, statistically, it is sensical as he is also forecasting a 67% chance of receiving above-average snowfall. Now, if you account for a 67% shift to the right of the statistical bell curve, you are shifting the curve by exactly 1-sigma (fun fact), but as a result of this shift, you can now extract the expected snowfall amount by overlaying this new shifted bell curve over the original statistical bell curve, which willntherefore be a non-zero amount.
I tell you one thing with the way the Pacific is looking along with other factors seemingly in our favor, you can move that 167% into our neck of the woods. Looking forward to many late nights of model tracking.

Disagree (right now). Niño 1.2 is significantly warmer than either 3.4 or 4 right now, which, if remained the case through the winter, correlates to the eastern ridging fighting back. We want the Pacific to look like it did a couple weeks ago where it was clearly warmer in the central tropical Pacific. That said, there are caveats. For one, the entire Niño signal remains meager, so even if this configuration held it would not be overpowering. Two, it would tend to support MJO convection that remains essentially Phase-locked in phases that favor eastern U.S. troughing, which could help to combat the pure Niño signal (again, IF this all held verbatim to how it is now). However, the MJO would need amplitude, as the Niño signal is larger, and therefore carries more weight. There are, of course, other factors that I cannot discuss at present. In looking just at the factors discussed, though, this setup would likely be one of transience biased warm for our region (verbatim), in my opinion.

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Post by nutleyblizzard Thu Sep 27, 2018 6:31 am

RB I would not put much credence with Nino 1.2 currently being warmer than 3.4. 1.2 has a known bias of being volatile with surface temps in a week to week basis. There is subsurface warmth in 3.4 that will influence that region in the coming days and weeks. Also there is no model guidance suggesting an eastern Nino developing this fall and winter. I do agree regardless of what happens this Nino will most likely be a weak one which will make other weather parameters come to the fore front. The warm blob in the northern Pacific will promote ridging out west which will ensure a trough in the east. Things look to line up in the Atlantic as well as we have a favorable QBO along with a solar minimum which both will help promote a -NAO and -AO. The only fly in the ointment is a stubborn western Atlantic ridge that remains persistently strong. All in all I'm very confident of an upcoming cold and snowy winter.
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Post by Quietace Thu Sep 27, 2018 8:19 am

rb924119 wrote:
Quietace wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
Quietace wrote:
amugs wrote:Here are his maps your very welcome!! Laughing

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 2 Decemb10
Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 2 Winter10
Tallahassee averages 0" of snowfall a year. If I do this difficult math out, 167% of normal is still 0. Parts of this make no sense.

Sounds like you may be reading into this a little too deep.
Well, If if I take a look at this again, it still says that this is a map forecasting the percent of normal snowfall from first to last flake for this winter. So if I once again do the mental math, well it still adds up...
So no, I do not think I am reading into this too deep, in fact, I am taking this quite literally. I am not disagreeing many forcings are going to be very favorable this winter for the east coast if you enjoy cold and snow; but rather the faulty communication in this map.  

Honestly, I think this is a petty discussion, BUT, to play Devil's Advocate here I offer the following:

If you think about this statistically, it's a valid forecast. Using Tallahassee, the statistical bell curve is centered on 0.0". Now, obviously, you can't have less than 0.0", so we are only looking at the positive side of the curve. No matter how steep the tail, there is still a statistical tail to snowfall events. As such, even though 100% of "normal" in this case is 0.0", he is stating that this season's annual snowfall will be 67% greater than "normal". Mathematically, no, you can't make that work you have clearly stated. However, statistically, it is sensical as he is also forecasting a 67% chance of receiving above-average snowfall. Now, if you account for a 67% shift to the right of the statistical bell curve, you are shifting the curve by exactly 1-sigma (fun fact), but as a result of this shift, you can now extract the expected snowfall amount by overlaying this new shifted bell curve over the original statistical bell curve, which willntherefore be a non-zero amount.
Thanks for the disco. While this is a "petty" disco on effective communication, I ran the numbers to prove you are in fact correct but doesn't take away from my original point. The final 1-sigma value is .3717 inches, the mean through the recorded history is .0738 inches. Thus, I am forecasted to receive a rather large sum of snowfall this winter.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Sep 27, 2018 8:40 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Piggy-backing off my posts above the models continue to show what would be a blast of fall-like temps into the area late September into early October. The -EPO/+PNA forces a trough over the east.

GEFS September 29th:

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 2 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_39

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 2 Gfs-ens_T2ma_namer_39

GEFS October 3rd

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 2 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_55

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 2 Gfs-ens_T2ma_namer_55

The EPS are in agreement

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 2 Ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11

It will be interesting to see how long the trough will hold over the east. I think the period between September 28th (+/- 2 days) and October 4th (+/- 2 days) will feature below normal temps. How long it lasts remains to be seen. Most likely, this time of year, it is transient.

Revisiting this post because there are clear signs at this lead time that the cold will not be as pronounced as originally thought.

As Scott mentioned there is a -PNA as opposed to the +PNA models were showing at that time. Here is the same time stamp for the 29th on today's GEFS:

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 2 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_11

The trough is clearly there in southern Canada but there is no mechanism to drop it south into our region. The warm SSTA's in the Atlantic this time of year will give the SE Ridge or WAR more power than any early-reason trough that tries to come this way.

The GEFS and EPS suggest we'll remain above normal temperatures through the first week of October.

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 2 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_21

Honestly not a whole lot happening weather-wise in the long range.

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Post by dkodgis Thu Sep 27, 2018 8:47 am

In general by what approx date is the first frost? I have a selfish reason. I want to get rid of crab grass.
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Post by Snow88 Thu Sep 27, 2018 9:49 am

Michael Ventrice is saying how the Euro will be running 4 times a day soon

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