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Long Range Thread 17.0

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Post by Radz on Fri Jan 11, 2019 7:27 am

It is hard not too get your hopes up when you look at the Euro weeklies and ensembles for the up coming 3-4 weeks, I hope for once this remains the case as we get into Mid and short range... Redux of last March? cold air entrenched with no less than 6 threats... keeping my fingers crossed...
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Fri Jan 11, 2019 7:35 am

@Radz wrote:It is hard not too get your hopes up when you look at the Euro weeklies and ensembles for the up coming 3-4 weeks, I hope for once this remains the case as we get into Mid and short range... Redux of last March? cold air entrenched with no less than 6 threats... keeping my fingers crossed...

No complaints from me about the 50+ inches of snow last March and beginning of April but this year if we are lucky enough to get into a similar patter again it would be nice to start the last week of January instead of the first week of March.

WTS, I'm not expecting it to happen. This winter should have taught us one thing so far, fool me once Euro weeklies shame on you, fool me two, three, four, five times, shame on us.

15.4 degrees which happens to be the exact normal low for the date. Dry, cold and boring.
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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jan 11, 2019 8:01 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:If there is a storm looking at those euro ensembles there will be a coastal cutoff a sharp on as usual. I'm keeping my expectations at dry and cold to rain. If I see a big snowstorm then I will be pleasantly surprised.

The latest GFS shows a major rainstorm for around the 20th I think the polar vortex is our problem right now
of course it does. We have had more flood watches in 2018 than ever before why not do it this year too. Just warm up already I hate this cold dry air. What a waste today.
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Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Jan 11, 2019 8:07 am

Significant pattern reversal on the ensembles beginning around the 20th into February. It looks like we will have a solid 3-4 week stretch of sustained cold with ample storm opportunities. It will be interesting to see if winter lasts beyond mid-February into March, but let's not worry about that now.

EPS show the anomalous -EPO ridge up in the western Arctic forcing the PV southward. This is a set-up that should disallow cutters and promote storms sliding to our south then up the coast. Lets see how it plays out!

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 39 Ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_10

Just for fun check out the GEFS all the way out to the 26th. The cold is locked in over the east.

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 39 Gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_61


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Post by skinsfan1177 on Fri Jan 11, 2019 8:15 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Significant pattern reversal on the ensembles beginning around the 20th into February. It looks like we will have a solid 3-4 week stretch of sustained cold with ample storm opportunities. It will be interesting to see if winter lasts beyond mid-February into March, but let's not worry about that now.

EPS show the anomalous -EPO ridge up in the western Arctic forcing the PV southward. This is a set-up that should disallow cutters and promote storms sliding to our south then up the coast. Lets see how it plays out!

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 39 Ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_10

Just for fun check out the GEFS all the way out to the 26th. The cold is locked in over the east.

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 39 Gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_61


I hope your right Frank I just can't buy the LR with what's happened as of late. Love the Analysis
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Post by HectorO on Fri Jan 11, 2019 9:14 am

If it doesn't last past mid February, this would be one of the fastest winter exits I can remember. I can't remember the 11/12 winter... I know that winter was awful too.
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Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Jan 11, 2019 9:48 am

@HectorO wrote:If it doesn't last past mid February, this would be one of the fastest winter exits I can remember. I can't remember the 11/12 winter... I know that winter was awful too.

Me too. Can't remember such a short duration winter.

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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:20 pm

Frank love your optimism despite all the letdowns but I just can't buy into any of this pattern change that has been called for since begin season. Great analysis as usual but I'm.expecting this continued issue. I hope your right.
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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:23 pm

I love me some good winter storms but if not a early spring will be fine with me. I hunt garage sales for things to resell I actually do really well. and go into withdrawal during the winter lol
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Post by amugs on Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:31 pm

Looks like a 45/60, 30, 45/60 ish cycle is occurring overall to me - I know optimistic to a fault BUT if you look at the pattern we had a flip about mid October that ran until about mid December and now we have a flip that happen about Jan 10th synoptically speaking - take out the snow equation here please and if you cant see past this then DON"T READ the rest and go into another state of mind.
Our MJO pahes were in the colder phases during that stretch for that time of teh 60 day period. We had a trough at 500MB in the NE and high latitude blocking. The we relaxed as the PAC JET extension from the + EAMT fed this beast into a more zonal period of E to W flow. This also allowed the convection in the IO to take hold in the 4-6 phases as the wave was progged to die off after 3 it kept going doing to this IO and Asian pattern.
All teh meanwhile we had a SSW that has a warm period before it splits as most past SSW have occurred - last year for example Mid Jan through Early March we had a AN phase with the subsequent splitting of this beast then we had 45 days of winter in met spring basically.
Has this been frustrating absolutely and quite frankly a shitty winter so far - some argue that winter is to be judged from Dec. 21st to March 21st and other the Me winter time frame.
But we have a split flow setting up which means the STJ will cut under and the pac flow gets shunted N which helps pumps the EPO and PNA atmospheric set ups
from Doc on 33& rain bd map
Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 39 Sketched_5c38ca4da18bd

Split here with surface reflections:
Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 39 Gfs_uv250_npac_23
Look at this a week from now - wow - look at ho wthe black lines off the west coast are pinting in the N direction and some the other half bending down S
Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 39 Gfs_uv250_npac_31

Interesting of twitter:
Snowfall climatologically speaking for Newark NJ
Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 39 1083721641044205568

So in essence the pattern has evolved from where we were and is going to evolve into a more stormy cold pattern once we get other drivers established such as the EPO.

Just my .02 here.

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Post by crippo84 on Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:40 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Frank love your optimism despite all the letdowns but I just can't buy into any of this pattern change that has been called for since begin season. Great analysis as usual but I'm.expecting this continued issue. I hope your right.

We've heard this 100+ times by a number of folk.  We get it - nobody has to buy in. Not gonna lie reading comments like this all the time starts to get annoying to those that want to listen, learn, and hope for the best but don't post as often. Let our forecasters continue to do what they do in keeping us informed.

Even if it's a shortened period similar to March of last year, we would be working with a better sun angle and (hopefully) better, more productive temperature profiles. I enjoyed the late return of winter in March last year, but they were always very wet, low ratio snowfall events.  The cold, higher-ratio snowstorms are so much more fun.
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Post by Grselig on Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:04 pm

@crippo84 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Frank love your optimism despite all the letdowns but I just can't buy into any of this pattern change that has been called for since begin season. Great analysis as usual but I'm.expecting this continued issue. I hope your right.

We've heard this 100+ times by a number of folk.  We get it - nobody has to buy in. Not gonna lie reading comments like this all the time starts to get annoying to those that want to listen, learn, and hope for the best but don't post as often. Let our forecasters continue to do what they do in keeping us informed.

Even if it's a shortened period similar to March of last year, we would be working with a better sun angle and (hopefully) better, more productive temperature profiles. I enjoyed the late return of winter in March last year, but they were always very wet, low ratio snowfall events.  The cold, higher-ratio snowstorms are so much more fun.

Crippo. I 100% agree with you.  Level headed and very reasonable.  Wise words.  But when dealing with weather for many of us its emotion.  Big highs and big lows.  We get twitchy.    Its not real life, but its fun.  I would always trade off a few slushy storms for a nice dry massive accumulation.  This is a great site and they don't model hug.  
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Post by rb924119 on Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:09 pm

12z EURO. I REST MY CASE Very Happy

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Post by amugs on Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:25 pm

@crippo84 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Frank love your optimism despite all the letdowns but I just can't buy into any of this pattern change that has been called for since begin season. Great analysis as usual but I'm.expecting this continued issue. I hope your right.

We've heard this 100+ times by a number of folk.  We get it - nobody has to buy in. Not gonna lie reading comments like this all the time starts to get annoying to those that want to listen, learn, and hope for the best but don't post as often. Let our forecasters continue to do what they do in keeping us informed.

Even if it's a shortened period similar to March of last year, we would be working with a better sun angle and (hopefully) better, more productive temperature profiles. I enjoyed the late return of winter in March last year, but they were always very wet, low ratio snowfall events.  The cold, higher-ratio snowstorms are so much more fun.

First line says it.
WE have worked and did our researched and interpreted as best we can with the computer data we get our hands on and listen to other pros in teh field and more knowledgeable folks and guess what it still is wrong sometimes. I have to say the evolution of this pattern now due to what is going on in ASIA is going to pay forward a nice stretch of winter here. Can it change yes but as of now and the past three days of runs the evolution there is pointing towards a much better stretch of winter here. Also the High latitude affects should kick in as well as we see height rising over the entire polar region - so they are minus 28* instead of minus 38 - ooh wow they are roasting up there sorry that drives me nuts when people interpret these charts as such yeah yuo go sit outside in hat "roast" weather for 10 minutes adn tell me if it roasting - anyway this will help us below. The set up by the TPV _ tropospheric polar vortex from teh split has basically set up in the Hudson Bay region as we have been harping on since late December and early Jan. This will allow lobes of arctic air to drain into our area and when teh NAO rebounds as it is doing as I write it will lock in this cold and press the thermal gradient to a favorable position as it is showing now. Cold we get a suppressed storm or two - yes but dont go crying like a 3 year old losing his woobie over it and shrug it off and move on.
There are no guarantees with snow but all we can ask for at this juncture is the evolution of teh pattern which it is doing.

The issue is not a destructive high amplitude MJO wave at this time so don't be expecting the same old issue cause its not.

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Post by amugs on Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:27 pm

@rb924119 wrote:12z EURO. I REST MY CASE Very Happy

Delicious!!
From JH on the jet Retraction I posted about:
s discussed, there is strong support for a retraction of the Pac jet and perhaps split flow in Western NHEM near 1/18. This aligns well with developing ridge in British Columbia/-EPO (retracting +EAMT, renewed convection in the Indian Ocean). Change is clear as day on the GEFS:
Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 39 1083805880682975233

GEFS too
Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 39 DwpkhfTW0AAuKJG

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Post by docstox12 on Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:28 pm

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4232834-natural-gas-polar-vortex-split-weather-models-converging-cold-likely-push-prices-higher

I have made my living as a trader of various types of investments these past 17 years.Here is a Gentleman who combines long range forecasting to try and see what kind of trend a commodity, in this case natural gas, may develop for a trade.Natural gas can be traded long via UNG ETF or shorted by trading DGAZ ETF.
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Post by SENJsnowman on Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:30 pm

@docstox12 wrote:https://seekingalpha.com/article/4232834-natural-gas-polar-vortex-split-weather-models-converging-cold-likely-push-prices-higher

I have made my living as a trader of various types of investments these past 17 years.Here is a Gentleman who combines long range forecasting to try and see what kind of trend a commodity, in this case natural gas, may develop for a trade.Natural gas can be traded long via UNG ETF or shorted by trading DGAZ ETF.

Sounds like the 'smart money' in Vegas.

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Post by docstox12 on Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:31 pm

@SENJsnowman wrote:
@docstox12 wrote:https://seekingalpha.com/article/4232834-natural-gas-polar-vortex-split-weather-models-converging-cold-likely-push-prices-higher

I have made my living as a trader of various types of investments these past 17 years.Here is a Gentleman who combines long range forecasting to try and see what kind of trend a commodity, in this case natural gas, may develop for a trade.Natural gas can be traded long via UNG ETF or shorted by trading DGAZ ETF.

Sounds like the 'smart money' in Vegas.

LOL, I agree SENJ. I'm going with it for a trade.
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Post by skinsfan1177 on Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:49 pm

Did anyone see euro run a snow weenie dream
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Post by heehaw453 on Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:52 pm

yeah. Seems all about how the PV can keep the storm from cutting. As always delicate balance of nature. At least it's something to track.

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Post by rb924119 on Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:58 pm

Folks, take this as you will, but the last time I saw an individual storm signal on ALL THREE MAJOR GLOBAL ENSEMBLES AT THIS RANGE of the magnitude and consistency that we are currently seeing was Stella back in 2017. I’m not saying the same evolution will result, but I’m saying the signal itself is real. Where it ends up and how it evolves? Don’t know. I have a pretty good guess (as of right now) of what is most likely, which will be provided in due course, but keep that in mind. The 12z EPS today is pretty awesome.

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Post by amugs on Fri Jan 11, 2019 4:56 pm

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 39 Img_2020
This map shows the high latitude blocking galore lnthat red and otangy colors over Greenlan and arctic for this time frame, aka like March through April last year except throw Feb in there. IF it nails it a longer stretch of winter than some may expect.

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Post by dkodgis on Fri Jan 11, 2019 7:20 pm

What would be a sweet deoderant is just one 28-32 inch snow storm sometime soon. Or if Doc bought low, sold high, and needed a business expense deduction so he buys the beer
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Post by mwilli5783 on Fri Jan 11, 2019 7:55 pm

last time i remember a 25 or more snowstorm was in the 60's when we had drifts so high you can climb up to the top and slide down till u hit the pavement......in bklyn

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Post by docstox12 on Fri Jan 11, 2019 8:22 pm

@dkodgis wrote:What would be a sweet deoderant is just one 28-32 inch snow storm sometime soon. Or if Doc bought low, sold high, and needed a business expense deduction so he buys the beer

Done deal Damian.You bring the snow Ill bring the beer,LOL
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