Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

[mwilli5783]

last time i remember a 25 or more snowstorm was in the 60's when we had drifts so high you can climb up to the top and slide down till u hit the pavement......in bklyn

[docstox12]

What would be a sweet deoderant is just one 28-32 inch snow storm sometime soon. Or if Doc bought low, sold high, and needed a business expense deduction so he buys the beer

Done deal Damian.You bring the snow Ill bring the beer,LOL

[Snow88]

It's so frustrating just looking at the Nam and seeing the confluence squash this storm.

[amugs]

This would have been a secs to.mecs if the damage TPV did not squash and shred the he'll out of this. Dam, Jim Witt had the storm just was not far enough North.

[amugs]

GEFS showing a pattern that boasts from next Friday the 19th through the following week we are in a cross polar flow with temp's cold to very cold by the looks.

[amugs]

nd one in 4 days to this altitude 
 
YET ANOTHER POWERFUL ERUPTION AT MANAM VOLCANO — ASH FIRED 50,000 FEET A.S.L.
JANUARY 11, 2019 CAP ALLON
A new high-altitude eruption took place at Papua New Guinea’s Manam volcano at 04:25 UTC on Jan 11. The Aviation Colour Code remains red.
According to the Darwin VAAC, the eruption produced a column of ash rising up to 15.2 km (50,000 feet) above sea level. The volcanic ash was observed on satellite imagery and confirmed by ground reports.
 

 
There was a 2day coronal hole in souther tier of the sun and NASA said it would increase seismic activity on earth Jan 12 and 13th.
Guess when it's happened? Jan 12th bingo.

These eruptions about 6 VEI3 levels in the last month WILL have affects on our weather n different areas of the wold but not small areas but larger areas. Dont be ignorant to the fact of low sar, coronal hole's and seismic activity on this large rock floating through space.
The domino affects will be pretty large on the grand scale of this planet.

[Carvin]

Lee goldberg just mentioned possible coastal storm next weekend

[rb924119]

The 00z EURO run just made 95% of us on this forum very, very happy. As a hint, many of you coastal reach your seasonal snowfall after this ten-day stretch I’ll let your minds envision the possibilities......

[rb924119]

It’s a run worthy of the “M” word.......

[rb924119]

Based on preliminary and very high-level analysis, I fully believe that the EURO Ensemble and Control are overplaying the warmth for the threat of interest and will correct east some with respect to their thermal profiles. I also believe that the GFS and GEM Ensemble mean MSLP tracks are a bit better and more in line with where I think this will go, but I do have some adjustments for them as well. Even though this is only preliminary, I feel like I have a pretty good idea of where I like the eventual storm track and attendant axis of heaviest snowfall to occur, but I do not want to present these thoughts without having a chance to really sit down and look at things. I expect to have that time on Sunday, or at the latest, Monday, as those are my days off this week. That said, I continue to stand by my sentiments from a week ago that I really like this period (~17th-20th) for our first significant winter storm threat

[jmanley32]

12z EURO. I REST MY CASE

00z euro FML lol holy carp but no no I won't be sucked into these week put fantasy blizzards. I will give you rb you were right on today so if your right about next sat and euro verifies or even half that...to those that didn't see it You know it must be a lot if I'm.saying half lol. Then I will not doubt you again.

[jmanley32]

Based on preliminary and very high-level analysis, I fully believe that the EURO Ensemble and Control are overplaying the warmth for the threat of interest and will correct east some with respect to their thermal profiles. I also believe that the GFS and GEM Ensemble mean MSLP tracks are a bit better and more in line with where I think this will go, but I do have some adjustments for them as well. Even though this is only preliminary, I feel like I have a pretty good idea of where I like the eventual storm track and attendant axis of heaviest snowfall to occur, but I do not want to present these thoughts without having a chance to really sit down and look at things. I expect to have that time on Sunday, or at the latest, Monday, as those are my days off this week. That said, I continue to stand by my sentiments from a week ago that I really like this period (~17th-20th) for our first significant winter storm threat

didn't look to warm to me! 15 to 40 inches of snow NYC seeing nearly 2 feet next sat how is that warm? If its this cold could dpuble those numbers. I'm go be very upset with you if this is squashed again to the south lol

[rb924119]

Based on preliminary and very high-level analysis, I fully believe that the EURO Ensemble and Control are overplaying the warmth for the threat of interest and will correct east some with respect to their thermal profiles. I also believe that the GFS and GEM Ensemble mean MSLP tracks are a bit better and more in line with where I think this will go, but I do have some adjustments for them as well. Even though this is only preliminary, I feel like I have a pretty good idea of where I like the eventual storm track and attendant axis of heaviest snowfall to occur, but I do not want to present these thoughts without having a chance to really sit down and look at things. I expect to have that time on Sunday, or at the latest, Monday, as those are my days off this week. That said, I continue to stand by my sentiments from a week ago that I really like this period (~17th-20th) for our first significant winter storm threat

didn't look to warm to me! 15 to 40 inches of snow NYC seeing nearly 2 feet next sat how is that warm? If its this cold could dpuble those numbers. I'm go be very upset with you if this is squashed again to the south lol

Notice how I never mentioned the Operational as being too warm only the Control and the Ensemble I think are too warm lol

[jmanley32]

Based on preliminary and very high-level analysis, I fully believe that the EURO Ensemble and Control are overplaying the warmth for the threat of interest and will correct east some with respect to their thermal profiles. I also believe that the GFS and GEM Ensemble mean MSLP tracks are a bit better and more in line with where I think this will go, but I do have some adjustments for them as well. Even though this is only preliminary, I feel like I have a pretty good idea of where I like the eventual storm track and attendant axis of heaviest snowfall to occur, but I do not want to present these thoughts without having a chance to really sit down and look at things. I expect to have that time on Sunday, or at the latest, Monday, as those are my days off this week. That said, I continue to stand by my sentiments from a week ago that I really like this period (~17th-20th) for our first significant winter storm threat

didn't look to warm to me! 15 to 40 inches of snow NYC seeing nearly 2 feet next sat how is that warm? If its this cold could dpuble those numbers. I'm go be very upset with you if this is squashed again to the south lol

Notice how I never mentioned the Operational as being too warm only the Control and the Ensemble I think are too warm lol

ahh gotcha well here's to hoping all I want is 1 blockbuster. I know many like lots of small storms but I like the extreme ones. Lets hope this one can be reeled in. At least its not 384 hrs though 240 is a lot too and euro has given us a billion inches this year that far out so far lol

[nutleyblizzard]

With the 6z GFS showing a strong coastal low, all ops and ensembles are screaming big ticket event for next weekend. With that being said, we need to temper expectations for now. There are a few things that could screw this up. The MJO has been unpredictable; we need it stay in phase 8 or COD would be be fine. The other issue is the fast Pacific flow which could hinder the ridge out west if the timing is off. Lastly if the the low gets too wrapped up and drives it into the coast we rain or dry slot. Bottomline, we need to give this a few days to see where we stand.

[rb924119]

OH. MY. GOD. 06z GEFS TOOK A NUKE TO US. WOW.

[SENJsnowman]

jman, I remember the tough break you caught in both blizzards last year. And that absolute travel horror for your family in November's storm. You're due for a real winner here...I'm pulling for ya!

As for me, I was gonna do a Godfather III, "every time I get out, they suck me back in" bit, but who am I kidding. I'm never out. I'm still staring at rb's and nutley's mornign updates like Lisa Simpson smiling during a 9 minute long national anthem.

[heehaw453]

Based on preliminary and very high-level analysis, I fully believe that the EURO Ensemble and Control are overplaying the warmth for the threat of interest and will correct east some with respect to their thermal profiles. I also believe that the GFS and GEM Ensemble mean MSLP tracks are a bit better and more in line with where I think this will go, but I do have some adjustments for them as well. Even though this is only preliminary, I feel like I have a pretty good idea of where I like the eventual storm track and attendant axis of heaviest snowfall to occur, but I do not want to present these thoughts without having a chance to really sit down and look at things. I expect to have that time on Sunday, or at the latest, Monday, as those are my days off this week. That said, I continue to stand by my sentiments from a week ago that I really like this period (~17th-20th) for our first significant winter storm threat

RB do you think in January this thermal anomaly would cause mixing issues as shown on the EPS?

[billg315]

6z GFS does show the storm but as it has it primarily as a rain storm ending as a prolonged ice storm I’ll temper my expectations for now 8 days out. Two things that do point to the gfs correcting to a snow event:
1.) rb’s excitement; he’s been a very pessimistic rb this winter (rightfully so), so this is a positive sign. Haha!  
And 2.) Next Saturday and Sunday are the worst days this month for me to have a snowstorm . . . Which means it will happen I’m sure. Guess I’ll take one for the team. Lol.

[SENJsnowman]

6z GFS does show the storm but as it has it primarily as a rain storm ending as a prolonged ice storm I’ll temper my expectations for now 8 days out. Two things that do point to the gfs correcting to a snow event:
1.) rb’s excitement; he’s been a very pessimistic rb this winter (rightfully so), so this is a positive sign. Haha!  
And 2.) Next Saturday and Sunday are the worst days this month for me to have a snowstorm . . . Which means it will happen I’m sure. Guess I’ll take one for the team. Lol.

2 great points Billg. Add to that that in both 2015 and in 2016, the last week of Jan yielded huge godzilla+ patterns board-wide...

and the models are definitely starting to bark at next weekend...there I go again...

[amugs]

Lee goldberg just mentioned possible coastal storm next weekend

Great he is the KOD - whenever he and the TV mets opens their mouths the opposite happens. Jeff said that there is no arctic air in sight last week on Thursday and guess what - an arctic front came through - though it modified of course over the bare land it was still an arctic punch.

I am not analyzing an OP run for this until Wednesday, only ENS and Pattern Synoptic set up.

[mwilli5783]

i'm reading the latest on next weekend storm.i'm taking the same attitude as everybody..but if i see the word"madonne" in here..then ill get hyped up

[sroc4]

i'm reading the latest on next weekend storm.i'm taking the same attitude as everybody..but if i see the word"madonne" in here..then ill get hyped up

I need it said from Franks mouth

[rb924119]

i'm reading the latest on next weekend storm.i'm taking the same attitude as everybody..but if i see the word"madonne" in here..then ill get hyped up

I need it said from Franks mouth

Note my earlier comment regarding the 00z EURO.........I’mvtrying, Scott. Really, I am lmaooo

[rb924119]

Based on preliminary and very high-level analysis, I fully believe that the EURO Ensemble and Control are overplaying the warmth for the threat of interest and will correct east some with respect to their thermal profiles. I also believe that the GFS and GEM Ensemble mean MSLP tracks are a bit better and more in line with where I think this will go, but I do have some adjustments for them as well. Even though this is only preliminary, I feel like I have a pretty good idea of where I like the eventual storm track and attendant axis of heaviest snowfall to occur, but I do not want to present these thoughts without having a chance to really sit down and look at things. I expect to have that time on Sunday, or at the latest, Monday, as those are my days off this week. That said, I continue to stand by my sentiments from a week ago that I really like this period (~17th-20th) for our first significant winter storm threat

RB do you think in January this thermal anomaly would cause mixing issues as shown on the EPS?

I’m honestly not ready to comment here, yet. Once I can sit down and analyze more deeply, I will provide my thoughts on the entire setup and and evolution

[rb924119]

THATS IT, IM NOT JUST BOARDING THIS HYPE TRAIN, IM CONDUCTING IT. WHETHER WE CAPITALIZE OR NOT, THE RUNS WE ARE WITNESSING RIGHT NOW ARE EPIC!!!!

[jmanley32]

Someone posted a model not sure which shows as much as 60 plus inches snow depth in 225 hrs in places over pa and up to 3 ft in our area. Hard to not get a little jitter off that.

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