October 2018 Observations & Discussions

It looks to me the center circulation ended up further off the coast because it missed the phase with northern energy. The GFS was pretty consistent of a missing phase while the NAM and EURO kept showing a much more impactful storm.

If this were winter - many people may have expexted 12+" of snow only to see 3 to 6 inches. But the coast, especially Jersey Shore seem to be getting hit well.

Still very windy Northeast winds 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph wait live rain occasionally moderate rain lots leaves are on the ground

As usual I'm in the nope zone as I'm go call it. Barely raining and never saw any wind yet I'm only 5 miles from hudson river and 10 from the spund.

[quote="jmanley32"]As usual I'm in the nope zone as I'm go call it. Barely raining and never saw any wind yet I'm only 5 miles from hudson river and 10 from the spund.[/quote. That's crazy and we are not to far from each other even over here we did not get that much rain to me this is more of a wind storm . I was driving around my area nothing crazy just a couple tree branches down nothing major and Long Island Sound the waves are hitting the Seawall coming over the street no flooding yet nothing to major

Poured here on LI overnight. Winds were ridiculous from 6 till about an hour ago. Many gusts waaaaaay over 50mph. Power out in a lot of my neighborhood and many branches down.

I’m sitting in a Convenience store parking lot waiting to cross the bridge to my shore town. My friend phoned me from our house to tell me the island is flooded and I probably can’t get to the house right now (she thinks the water may be in her car parked outside). Not surprised as the water in the marshes along the Parkway was right up to the roadway. If I can get good pics I’ll post.

She was right, can’t get to my house. But did get some pics of the streets near my house.

Here’s our street (now a canal?)

billg315 wrote:Here’s our street (now a canal?)

oh boy hope there is not damage to your property and her car!

Union Beach the next town over from me is Flooded...we have 1.5 inches of rain so far..but like I mentioned the wind is no comparison to last Sunday..last Sunday we had wakes in the creek...

weatherwatchermom wrote:

billg315 wrote:Here’s our street (now a canal?)

oh boy hope there is not damage to your property and her car!

It made it up to the garage door, but not inside thankfully. She’s worried about her car, but waiting for water to recede before checking.

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:00z 3km is coming in wind very intense rains and wind. so is hrrr, imo we all go to hww but i could be wrong if the thinking by nws is they wont mix down as shown, but if u compare the precip map and gust map the higher gusts are under very heavy areas of rain so they may very well mix down, we will see.

Look at your soundings, Jman, and they will guide you to the likelihood of wind impacts I’m at work, so I can’t assist much more that that at the moment lol

yeah I never really figured out how to read those things. Btw what kind of job is running at 1:40 in the morning what do u do?

I work for a ship routing company doing data entry and quality control, and it’s a 24/7 operation because we route ships all over the world. Unfortunately, the largest shipping lanes are also in the western Pacific, so our nighttime is the middle of their day aha

https://twitter.com/B_Carp01/status/1055913114405871616

https://twitter.com/LensReality/status/1056193079894511624

Quiet here. We did have some wind but not much. .75 inches of rain total. 41 at 8 pm. As far as I can tell, we escaped anything bad.

It was a impressive storm just not here. I have to look at the whole picture. Over long island winds gusted as high as 66mph. Way higher than predicted. Coastal flooding was moderate to high. Even in ct and my home town had flooding damage. For the like 12th time our dock front restaurant was destroyed. I'm pretty sure he said his last rebuild was going to be it. I think that was sandy. Sad I had many fond memory drinking and eating there. Winds very close to me got over 50mph so I guess all in all it was spot on except maybe rain totals. They seemed pretty low. I live in between two steep hills I think this plays a factor in lack of winds. Its almost like a small valley. Lower snow totals and more rain than snow I'm not sure why I always seem to be in the nope none for you zone. I'm just selfish I want to get hit hard for once lol

On another note I'm seeing hints of another nor Easter on models first full week of Nov. Can we squeeze any snow out this time? I need so.e kind of excitement my weather deprivation is ever increasing lol

Read this article of the storm hitting NJ and not IMBY that everyone loves to do to judge a storm

http://nj1015.com/nj-noreaster-recap-top-3-flood-event-for-parts-of-jersey-shore/

Hopefully the next Nor'easter will not be that bad as yesterday because of the wind. I spent almost two hours cleaning up the leaves around my property between blowing mulching and making a pile of the leaves every time I was finished I had more leaves come onto my property.

amugs wrote:Read this article of the storm hitting NJ and not IMBY that everyone loves to do to judge a storm

http://nj1015.com/nj-noreaster-recap-top-3-flood-event-for-parts-of-jersey-shore/

tx mugs ...

Looks like a quiet and milder week. Some rain late Thursday into Friday. Even some tomorrow morning. A lot of the analogs for the winter have a pretty mild November actually. It may not get cold again until Thanksgiving time. And by cold I mean below normal...

1.02" was my total for the storm yesterday, lost a decent size branch, but otherwise no issues in my neck of the woods. Looking forward to some 60's this week, it has been so damp, maybe we can dry out a little.

Flloding map from NorEaster

Frank_Wx wrote:Looks like a quiet and milder week. Some rain late Thursday into Friday. Even some tomorrow morning. A lot of the analogs for the winter have a pretty mild November actually. It may not get cold again until Thanksgiving time. And by cold I mean below normal...

If this comes to fruition then it would be much earlier than Turkey day.
From 33&Rain wxboard

GEFS MJO Wave would coincide with this colder look




SOLAR UPDATE
Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 11 days
2018 total: 177 days (59%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)
Updated 29 Oct 2018

amugs wrote:Flloding map from NorEaster

I can attest to the flooding down by the hook...Union beach the town next to me was under water the other day.

I forgot to report but we had a pretty good line of thunderstorms run through my area about 5:30am this morning. Had a really nice lightning show that was right on top of us with winds picking up to about 50-60mph and pebble size hail. These types of storms don’t happen by me very often. Same line produced a tornado warning on Block Island