First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
Issued by National Weather Service Taunton MA
241 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

Western Passaic-Western Bergen-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-
241 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM
EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an
inch expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New
York.

* WHEN...From 1 PM Thursday to 4 AM EST Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The
hazardous conditions should impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

Since this is the first snowfall of the season, drivers will
need to exercise their winter driving skills. Plan on extra travel
time.

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

I wonder if the wwa will extend to the five boroughs

Just got a watch in Binghamton for 6"+ of snow and up to an inch of ice. Yikes

Here’s my best guess now:
Green: Mostly wet. May start as snow but will mix with sleet quickly then change to rain quickly by late afternoon.
Purple: 1-2” of snow before changing to sleet which won’t add much to the total; a changeover to all rain by evening.
Blue: 2-4”. Snow hangs in a little longer and prolonged sleet may add a layer of accumulation, before a later change to rain by midnight.
All areas could end as a brief burst of snow west to east as rain ends late Friday morning.

TheAresian wrote:Somebody somewhere is smoking something. Accuweather calling for me to get 3-6, NWS calling for 7 or 8 and the Weather Channel predicting 9-15.

Haha but at least NWS has a WSW out in your area. Weather channel has me getting 1-3 tomorrow afternoon and 5-8 tomorrow night and still nothing from NWS Albany.

They NWS has dropped their 7 or 8" of snow down to 6 and replaced it with .10" ice. Weather Channel dropped their total down to match yours. This storm is getting messy.

I wonder if winter weather advisory extended all the way down to the city

frank 638 wrote:I wonder if winter weather advisory extended all the way down to the city

https://www.weather.gov/okx/

Wonder if that wind advisory for nj will be expanded north I wouldn't see why winds wouldn't meet same criteria all way up coast. Wind spells trouble even with a little snow we still have many trees with leaves though some are done or near others are quite full.

Looking like a non issue accumulation wise in the vicinity of NYC and points south. Nice to talk about snow though. My map will bust high. Cut every prediction in half

DT has 2-4 inches for NYC and a lot more to the north and west

Upton now has 1-2 inches for NYC with nothing in eastern LI

Snow88 wrote:DT has 2-4 inches for NYC and a lot more to the north and west

Upton now has 1-2 inches for NYC with nothing in eastern LI

DT ?

I will say this..the air feels like snow is coming..its cold out there..currently 33 here in Hazlet with a real feel of 24..I wish were were not so close to the water..sister is gong to be in the jack pot area, I think in the hills of Nj.( fyi current water temp in the bay is 43* it dropped almost 10* in the last week)

Again like I said a few days ago, this is an article air mass of dense cold air that HP means business for this time of year and models trend colder and radar depicting this southern tier. Don't go against CAD peeps. The mid layers may warm up to the NJ/ NY border but it is ice issues of up to .10 to .20 of ice. There maybe a wrap around snow burst for a few hours Friday morning as the storm wraps up pulling away.
BTW Euro holds serve
Ukie, Euro, Rgem, Hrds, Gfs Paradise all in dame came , old Gfs doing what it does best. 
Euro for you, again don't take verbatim cut I'd say in half
Would help if I put the map up

Why is the Nam and euro showing a good amount of snow

Vinnydula wrote:Why is the Nam and euro showing a good amount of snow

Rgem and hdrps SR models as well.as HRRR picking up on the cold air entrenchment to a degree

I'm going to wear out my mouse going from one model run to the other. It feels like an early Xmas gift is coming.

Look like 5to8 for my area on each map. Guess we just ride this out

Not expecting more than a slushy inch on the coast. Anything more will be a bonus. Still nice to see snow falling for a few hours tomorrow bill take it in November

I feel bad for some of you guys. Check out the freezing rain total. Yuck.

That is some serious icing if it comes to fruition in Passaic and Susex counties as well northern Morrison cty

From NSFW pro met ccb sweeps trough dumping, NAMS, RGEM, HRDPS all hint at this

Ouch. I hate freezing rain. Wayne schools in Passaic County called an early dismissal

this is definitely a southern board. everything is quiet when the storm is north and west. im surprised the potential this early in year doesnt have everyone excited.

I am excited but I am a novice with limited knowledge about the mechanics. It is watch, listen, learn for me.

by 2004blackwrx
this is definitely a southern board. everything is quiet when the storm is north and west. im surprised the potential this early in year doesnt have everyone excited.

I agree, blackwrx! I’m up here in West Milford (NW Passaic County / NY State border) and we are Getting conflicting reports of 2-4 and 4-8 inches with some icing issues. I don’t know what to believe...

Same here in Monroe NY HV with the NWS forecast.Anywhere from 3 1/2 to 7 1/2 inches.LOL, talk about hedging.It will be nice to see snow on the ground this early in the season anyway!