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First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

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Post by aiannone Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:11 pm

Just got a watch in Binghamton for 6"+ of snow and up to an inch of ice. Yikes
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Post by billg315 Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:13 pm

Here’s my best guess now:
Green: Mostly wet. May start as snow but will mix with sleet quickly then change to rain quickly by late afternoon.
Purple: 1-2” of snow before changing to sleet which won’t add much to the total; a changeover to all rain by evening.
Blue: 2-4”. Snow hangs in a little longer and prolonged sleet may add a layer of accumulation, before a later change to rain by midnight.
All areas could end as a brief burst of snow west to east as rain ends late Friday morning.
First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16 - Page 6 4abfad10
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Post by hyde345 Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:23 pm

@TheAresian wrote:Somebody somewhere is smoking something. Accuweather calling for me to get 3-6, NWS calling for 7 or 8 and the Weather Channel predicting 9-15.

Haha but at least NWS has a WSW out in your area. Weather channel has me getting 1-3 tomorrow afternoon and 5-8 tomorrow night and still nothing from NWS Albany.
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Post by Guest Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:54 pm

They NWS has dropped their 7 or 8" of snow down to 6 and replaced it with .10" ice. Weather Channel dropped their total down to match yours. This storm is getting messy.

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Post by frank 638 Wed Nov 14, 2018 4:05 pm

I wonder if winter weather advisory extended all the way down to the city

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Post by sroc4 Wed Nov 14, 2018 4:20 pm

@frank 638 wrote:I wonder if winter weather advisory extended all the way down to the city

https://www.weather.gov/okx/

First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16 - Page 6 Okx

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Nov 14, 2018 4:36 pm

Wonder if that wind advisory for nj will be expanded north I wouldn't see why winds wouldn't meet same criteria all way up coast. Wind spells trouble even with a little snow we still have many trees with leaves though some are done or near others are quite full.
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Post by Guest Wed Nov 14, 2018 5:41 pm

Looking like a non issue accumulation wise in the vicinity of NYC and points south. Nice to talk about snow though. My map will bust high. Cut every prediction in half

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Post by Snow88 Wed Nov 14, 2018 7:37 pm

DT has 2-4 inches for NYC and a lot more to the north and west

Upton now has 1-2 inches for NYC with nothing in eastern LI
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Post by Guest Wed Nov 14, 2018 8:13 pm

@Snow88 wrote:DT has 2-4 inches for NYC and a lot more to the north and west

Upton now has 1-2 inches for NYC with nothing in eastern LI

DT ?

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Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Nov 14, 2018 8:42 pm

I will say this..the air feels like snow is coming..its cold out there..currently 33 here in Hazlet with a real feel of 24..I wish were were not so close to the water..sister is gong to be in the jack pot area, I think in the hills of Nj.( fyi current water temp in the bay is 43* it dropped almost 10* in the last week)
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Post by amugs Wed Nov 14, 2018 8:44 pm

Again like I said a few days ago, this is an article air mass of dense cold air that HP means business for this time of year and models trend colder and radar depicting this southern tier. Don't go against CAD peeps. The mid layers may warm up to the NJ/ NY border but it is ice issues of up to .10 to .20 of ice. There maybe a wrap around snow burst for a few hours Friday morning as the storm wraps up pulling away.
BTW Euro holds serve
Ukie, Euro, Rgem, Hrds, Gfs Paradise all in dame came , old Gfs doing what it does best. 
Euro for you, again don't take verbatim cut I'd say in half
Would help if I put the map up
First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16 - Page 6 Img_2019


Last edited by amugs on Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:34 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by Vinnydula Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:22 pm

Why is the Nam and euro showing a good amount of snow
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Post by amugs Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:35 pm

@Vinnydula wrote:Why is the Nam and euro showing a good amount of snow
Rgem and hdrps SR models as well.as HRRR picking up on the cold air entrenchment to a degree

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Post by Guest Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:40 pm

I'm going to wear out my mouse going from one model run to the other. It feels like an early Xmas gift is coming.

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Post by Vinnydula Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:41 pm

Look like 5to8 for my area on each map. Guess we just ride this out
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Post by Guest Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:52 pm

Not expecting more than a slushy inch on the coast. Anything more will be a bonus. Still nice to see snow falling for a few hours tomorrow bill take it in November

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Post by Guest Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:57 pm

I feel bad for some of you guys. Check out the freezing rain total. Yuck.First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16 - Page 6 2018-110

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Post by amugs Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:20 pm

That is some serious icing if it comes to fruition in Passaic and Susex counties as well northern Morrison cty

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Post by amugs Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:25 pm

From NSFW pro met ccb sweeps trough dumping, NAMS, RGEM, HRDPS all hint at this

First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16 - Page 6 ?format=go&jsonp=vglnk_154225222344015&key=e1e7dc862af11f29652fc542d68928ac&libId=johzsuwi0102n0l7000MA7eyvkgc4&loc=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.33andrain.com%2Ftopic%2F1491-november-15-16th-first-real-frozen-for-many-uber-thread%2F%3Fpage%3D69&v=1&out=https%3A%2F%2Fs3.amazonaws.com%2F33andrain%2Fmonthly_2018_11%2F3333333.gif.acde99a792bf6a22068eac2134b09d27.gif&ref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.33andrain

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Grselig Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:30 pm

Ouch. I hate freezing rain. Wayne schools in Passaic County called an early dismissal
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Post by 2004blackwrx Wed Nov 14, 2018 11:48 pm

this is definitely a southern board. everything is quiet when the storm is north and west. im surprised the potential this early in year doesnt have everyone excited.

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Post by dkodgis Thu Nov 15, 2018 3:58 am

I am excited but I am a novice with limited knowledge about the mechanics. It is watch, listen, learn for me.
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Post by HeresL Thu Nov 15, 2018 5:31 am


by 2004blackwrx
this is definitely a southern board. everything is quiet when the storm is north and west. im surprised the potential this early in year doesnt have everyone excited.

I agree, blackwrx! I’m up here in West Milford (NW Passaic County / NY State border) and we are Getting conflicting reports of 2-4 and 4-8 inches with some icing issues. I don’t know what to believe...
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Post by docstox12 Thu Nov 15, 2018 5:34 am

Same here in Monroe NY HV with the NWS forecast.Anywhere from 3 1/2 to 7 1/2 inches.LOL, talk about hedging.It will be nice to see snow on the ground this early in the season anyway!
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