First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Current soundings over Nassau Suffolk boarder have an above freezing nose at about 800-825mb.  But notice the dew point in green.  This should cool some, at least initially as the precip moves in and saturates the column.  Surface dew point is still in mid 20's.  

One important thing to keep in mind is even though areas to the sounth have seemd to over achieve, the HP positioning was parked over the Vt region.  However, it appears that it is begining its transition off the Ma coastline as we speak.  If you look at the sounding below you will see in the bottom R corner the winds have already shifted at the surface to almost due east, maybe ENE, and at 800-1000mb out of the south.  Now the site I look at to see actual observations still have winds a little more ENE to NE, but this likely wont last for much longer.  The precip has not made it in yet.  Again once that HP moves off the coast the conditions along coastal plain will rapidly transition warmer because SST are still 55-65*.  Again while early reports to the south are encouraging when the precip makes up to NYC lat we will have to monitor conditions.  Again dew points are still in good position to drop temps under heavier banding, but it has to happen soon.

Nothing yet in Flemington. Virga for about half an hour.

The bust-high potential is REAL for NYC metro/southern New England. It's gonna surprise a lot of people come the evening rush.

From Craig Allen - see wth have I been harping on with this the CAD SIG !! Its gonna win bigly this winter

.
Craig:

Getting a little concerned / nervous. I sure wish I had a chance to get acclimated with a few snow showers rather than hitting me up with an all out storm for the first one. Sheesh.

Scott I think when precipitation first starts there may be a mix or even plain rain along Coastal sections and even into the city but as the precipitation picks up in intensity it looks as if the column cools and the rain snow line drops 50 miles south of New York City. the latest hrrr shows that very nicely. can't post on my phone I don't think we have to worry about low-level warm air making it in to change over to rain I think we have to worry about the 700mb warm nose that seemef to bust down south let's hope that warm nose never makes it up here

This thing looks like its ramping up - any chance of thunder snow? These rates are going to be aggressive!!

algae888 wrote:Scott I think when precipitation first starts there may be a mix or even plain rain along Coastal sections and even into the city but as the precipitation picks  up in intensity it looks as if the column cools and the rain snow line drops 50 miles south of New York City. the latest hrrr shows that very nicely.  can't post on my phone I don't think we have to worry about low-level warm air making it in to change over to rain I think we have to worry about the 700mb warm nose that seemef to bust down south let's hope that warm nose never makes it up here

Talk to me Al

emokid51783 wrote:This thing looks like its ramping up - any chance of thunder snow? These rates are going to be aggressive!!

Emo- I think with dynamic cooling occurring there might be thundersnow.

I know we're not supposed to model hug, but they all look so good. From 10" on the NAM 3k to 16" on the RGEM. Pardon my ignorance on the following question, but will this be a basic 10:1 storm or will ratios slide one way or the other?

algae888 wrote:Scott I think when precipitation first starts there may be a mix or even plain rain along Coastal sections and even into the city but as the precipitation picks  up in intensity it looks as if the column cools and the rain snow line drops 50 miles south of New York City. the latest hrrr shows that very nicely.  can't post on my phone I don't think we have to worry about low-level warm air making it in to change over to rain I think we have to worry about the 700mb warm nose that seemef to bust down south let's hope that warm nose never makes it up here

We shall see. Its going to boil down to location location location. As I said above... dew points are still in good position to drop temps under heavier banding, but it has to happen soon.

sroc4 wrote:

algae888 wrote:Scott I think when precipitation first starts there may be a mix or even plain rain along Coastal sections and even into the city but as the precipitation picks  up in intensity it looks as if the column cools and the rain snow line drops 50 miles south of New York City. the latest hrrr shows that very nicely.  can't post on my phone I don't think we have to worry about low-level warm air making it in to change over to rain I think we have to worry about the 700mb warm nose that seemef to bust down south let's hope that warm nose never makes it up here

We shall see.  Its going to boil down to location location location.  As I said above...  dew points are still in good position to drop temps under heavier banding, but it has to happen soon.

LIE and areas north special. I can see 3” IMBY and zero down on the s shore beaches

I can confirm almost an inch of snow in Philly sticking to all surfaces as my daughter goes to college down there and still snowing heavily she said

You can see the dry slot showing up very nicely on radar this is a 6-hour period Of precip before it shuts off

Started in Flemington about 10 minutes ago!!

Upton better get their act together in a hurry.

Snow falling heavily right now. All roads covered and temp is 27.5. Clearly it's colder than what has been modeled at the surface IMBY. If we can hang on to the cold at mid-levels, then watch out. I noticed Mt Holly has gone over to warnings for some of the northern counties. Won't jinx it, but i love what i see so far!

AND JUST AS I POSTED THAT LAST MESSAGE!!!

Winter Storm Warning now for Westchester, Advisory issued for the city!

Warnings have been issued in Eastern Passaic and Morristown NJ. 5-7 inches plus ice. My concern is that driving around many trees still have leaves on them. I remember Halloween storm from years ago. Large scale power outages. Trees today are much more bare, but with ice, it could be an issue. Hope not.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
1229 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

Western Passaic-Western Bergen-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-
Including the cities of West Milford, Ringwood, Pompton Lakes,
Wanaque, Bloomingdale, Fair Lawn, Paramus, Ridgewood,
Elmwood Park, Wyckoff, Ramsey, Oakland, Putnam Valley,
Lake Carmel, Mahopac, Carmel, Putnam Lake, New City,
Spring Valley, Nanuet, Pearl River, Monsey, Stony Point, Suffern,
Ossining, Peekskill, Jefferson Valley, Tarrytown, Dobbs Ferry,
Mount Kisco, and North Tarrytown
1229 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and then mixed precipitation expected. Total
  snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches and ice accumulations of
  around one tenth of an inch expected. Snowfall rates of 1 to 2
  inches per hour possible. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...In New Jersey, Western Passaic and Western Bergen
  Counties. In New York, Putnam, Rockland and Northern
  Westchester Counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult. The
  hazardous conditions will impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet
and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible.

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

Just got a Winter Storm Warning for Southern Westchester County. 4-6 inches, Rates of 1-2 per hour and 45mph wind gusts

NEW.KOKX.WS.W.0009.181115T1800Z-181116T0300Z/
Southern Westchester-
Including the cities of Yonkers, New Rochelle, Mount Vernon,
and White Plains
1229 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to
6 inches expected. Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour
possible. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Southern Westchester County.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The
hazardous conditions will impact the evening commute. Gusty
winds could bring down tree branches.

HRRR - colder yet again and thus snowier