Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

[Sanchize06]

[heehaw453]

The GFS Para is even a better mauling. I wouldn't even look at what the precip type shows.  My guess this a blue bomb for most based on track and intensification. We shall see how this plays out...

[nutleyblizzard]

Well ladies and gents looks like I need to pick up the towel I threw 2 weeks ago. The 12z model suite thus far is madonne worthy. I'll be fully on board if the EURO later on continues to correct SE.

[SENJsnowman]

Yikes...keep trending and hey Coasties...be ready to smell the rain on this one...

[docstox12]

Well ladies and gents looks like I need to pick up the towel I threw 2 weeks ago. The 12z model suite thus far is madonne worthy. I'll be fully on board if the EURO later on continues to correct SE.

LOL, which one is yours from the pile that a lot of people threw theirs into.Just goes to show you can never give up in this area until at least March 15th and only then if the next two weeks looks warm and rainy or dry.

[algae888]

Today CMC gives the New York metro area 40 in of snow in the next 10 days

[mwilli]

40 inches of snow in the next 10 days?im gonna remain silent and keep reading till i hear the official "m" word from frank,algue and others

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Today CMC gives the New York metro area 40 in of snow in the next 10 days

It's the exact same time as last year when things went into full gear. The parade of storms started last year on March 2nd and did not stop until the second week of April.

An interesting turn of events, let's see if it plays out or we're just being teased again. Maybe this mornings surprise snow was the sign that finally the tide has turned.

Orange Othelias reputation is on the line here.

[Irish]

GFS is an absolute crusher on Sunday night for most people on this forum.

If this threat exists why am I not seeing anything but showers or mixing with almost no accumulation expected on weather.com for my area?

[sroc4]

GFS is an absolute crusher on Sunday night for most people on this forum.

If this threat exists why am I not seeing anything but showers or mixing with almost no accumulation expected on weather.com for my area?

Depends on what model that site wishes to use to derive a forecast for a specific area.  Not every model shows what GFS shows.  This model has your area in the rain.


 Dont get caught up in your point and click forecasts, and dont get caught up in the pretty colors on any one specific map.  Trust me when I tell you the threat very much exists; even for you. That said odds are your specific location is more than likely going to be rain eventually even if there is a little front end snow.

[heehaw453]

Rayno had a good explanation on the differences in track for Sunday's storm. It comes down to where the models show the storm energy. Euro is farther west and GFS is farther east off OBX. The TPV is honestly close in position for both models.

How tonight's storm dampens heights on the EC will play a part in the exact track. I have said i like NW of 95 for best snows and continue to do so. My guess is the track will be somewhere between GFS and Euro ultimately and i think that plays well for 95. The other thing i believe is there is a lot of arctic air feeding the back side of this storm. I think that will also help with temperatures.

The maps are just fun to look at and quite honestly there's not been much to view all winter. No one should get too confident one way or the other after all this is the weather we are dealing with.

[adamfitz1969]

[amugs]

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 29 days
2019 total: 44 days (73%

And we have to watch the midweek system and the end of the week system for more potential. Phase 1 to 2 working its magic so far?

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

This is a combination of several events over the next 10 days.

Unlikely as it is to verify as depicted here, where do I sign for it right now.

[aiannone]

Wouldnt that be nice

[amugs]

MJO Phases not bad

[amugs]

Green Snow? If this happens th elikly hood goes up!
And where the hell where you all winter - OY VEY!!
Oh and before this Friday and next Tuesdayish

[maxwell12103]

What does this mean Amugs? I read somewhere that winter is expected to keep pushing through middle of March now. The accuweather forecast still says that things should become close to seasonal after one more week.

[amugs]

What does this mean Amugs? I read somewhere that winter is expected to keep pushing through middle of March now. The accuweather forecast still says that things should become close to seasonal after one more week.

A trough over the east coast (blue) and a PNA spike (yellow colors) which is stormy pattern look - cold air is abundant in CANADA so the possibility is there.

[maxwell12103]

I will be so sad if this turns out like last March! Why can't a man get his early spring around here

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I will be so sad if this turns out like last March! Why can't a man get his early spring around here  

Simply because that's not historically normal around here. The average high temperature doesn't even hit 70° until May 10th in NYC. Sustained warmth in March would be very unnatural.

[maxwell12103]

I understand, I was just hoping for seasonal temperatures.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I understand, I was just hoping for seasonal temperatures.

I get it, but even seasonal right now is mid 40's during the day and low 30's at night and that's in the UHI. Much lower N&W.

[maxwell12103]

CP, that would actually be good from my perspective. I'm going to vegetable garden under a hoop house, which raises the soil temperature about 7 degrees above the air temperature. Typical March weather actually marks the beginning of the growing season for me.

With this weather, though, there is little to do but get impatient.

[sroc4]

Good morning folks.  Last nights system was a little disappointing for areas along the coastal plain but oveall it was a fun one to track.  A quick update on what I see for the next few weeks on a broad scale.  

First:  Temps this week should remain below normal overall as we crescendo with the BN temps Wed through Friday as a deep trough begins to lift out as we head into the weekend.  





Second: Regarding snow chances in the short term:  Models have a short wave that will enter the West coast of Cali mid week that will head towards the area as we approach the weekend.  There are big differences in the 500mb pattern regarding the confluence along the EC as the system approaches.  As of now the euro has a much stronger area of confluence and a northern stream short wave suppressing the energy to the south and keeps it sheared out; whereas, the GFS is further north with the N energy allowing a stronger area of vorticity to hold together and allows a weak area of LP to form as the energy exits the coast bringing a brief light area of precip into southern portions of the area.  As currently modeled on the GFS it is in the form of snow.  Overall this is not a threat for a big snow event by any means but something to watch as we head through the week since there are still huge differences in the upper level energy on the models and cold air is in place as the system approaches.  (BTW I put this event up in the scroll on the top of the site.  If the threat diminishes over the next few days we will obv take it down)





Third:  Looking beyond next weekend we look to head into a warm up period for pretty much all of next week.  I don't expect any chances for snow at this time next week at all. Actually I expect a touch of spring and short sleeves perhaps.

 That said beyond next week the pattern might just have one final push for a swan song for snow as we approach the 15th-20th time frame.  As of now the ensembles, both EPS and GEFS, are hinting at a trough setting up south of the Aleutian Islands and a ridge going up in the PNA region(West coast of the N CONUS into the WC of Canada).  Keep in mind this is a long way off and so obviously subject to change, but if those two areas trend stronger there will definitely be some form of a snow threat.  Anyway since there is nothing imminently exciting I will likely remain relatively quite and chime in if this weekends weak event starts to grow some legs as we head through the work week.  

[Frank_Wx]

Agree Scott. If any snowfall happens this weekend it will be minor.

The 15th-20th period does look interesting. At that point it is mid-March. I would not expect anything too nuts.

No Godzilla this winter

[amugs]

This could be the last hurrah for this winter if this comes to fruition as stated above
EPS harping on this PNA spike and Deep trough over the EC for this 15th -20th period - but we have sun angle etc to fight off

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