JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

amugs wrote:@rb I did not post nor comment on the GFS brother - I was teaching about C ...A...D.. which this stomr will have the utmost issue with and only IMO High Res models can sniff out.
Did not like seeing the Ukie jump 100 miles NW adn brings the low over Delaware/Cape May - needed it to stay further South. That woudl still mean above I80 ice issues - soundings will be important with this.
The trend has been to a more icy solution above I80 and warmer for those below I78/Driscoll Bridge.
The snow pattern is just not conducive with this one for one reason or another as goes this winter.
One thing though do not underestimate the CAD sign again for points about i 78 and N.
Back to C....A......D!!

Do not worry. At least we will get an inch tonight. Saves us from an F- winter. Now it’s just an F

From Allan Weather - pro met student - excellent work here after digesting the 12z maps:

AND HE said ZR is going to be a major problem - this set up is a deep winter CAD Signature unlike a late Feb or March

syosnow94 wrote:

amugs wrote:@rb I did not post nor comment on the GFS brother - I was teaching about C ...A...D.. which this stomr will have the utmost issue with and only IMO High Res models can sniff out.
Did not like seeing the Ukie jump 100 miles NW adn brings the low over Delaware/Cape May - needed it to stay further South. That woudl still mean above I80 ice issues - soundings will be important with this.
The trend has been to a more icy solution above I80 and warmer for those below I78/Driscoll Bridge.
The snow pattern is just not conducive with this one for one reason or another as goes this winter.
One thing though do not underestimate the CAD sign again for points about i 78 and N.
Back to C....A......D!!

Do not worry. At least we will get an inch tonight. Saves us from an F- winter. Now it’s just an F

LMAO - as a teacher we can go F- ??? LOL! I wish cause some of my past students...............

AMUGS what is ZR?

Euro went a bit north. Warmer for the coast

If that Allen Weather map verifies at 20+, at the very worst it would be the third largest snowfall I've seen in my almost 48 years. '93 was the largest at 27" and way back in the late 70s I remember a storm dropping 24", but that was when I lived in the Mohawk Valley outside of Utica.

gigs68 wrote:AMUGS what is ZR?

Freezing rain

EURO NORTH. IM CHECKING OUT. TOSS MY MAP. Or at the very least cut the totals by 2/3 everywhere south of Poughkeepsie WINTER 2018/19 CONTINUES ITS EPIC DISAPPOINTMENT. SEE YA. I’ll log in again maybe Saturday morning to bitch

Tick North......BEWARE

At this point the last 3 days seem to have gone: storm too far west (bad!), storm more south and east (good!) and storm a little more north today.

I'm not overly concerned at this point if the Euro jumped 50-100 miles North, i could see that correcting back to where it was yesterday by this time tomorrow. However, I haven't seen the run yet.

sroc4 wrote:Tick North......BEWARE

We have a day for Arnold to tick back south. Carefully hoping

I wonder if the partial data ingestion from the southern stream caused an over correction? Idk, but that run of Euro and UKMET was upsetting lol

Grselig wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Tick North......BEWARE

We have a day for Arnold to tick back south.   Carefully hoping

Yup.  Maybe it is the wipers, maybe it isnt.  If your jumping ship and wish to complain head on over to the playpen.  Ill hold out until tomorrow 12z.(not you gr)

By this evenings model runs, most of them will all show signs of the storm going southeast.

It if ticks north any more, this thread may end up being awfully quiet come this weekend.

TheAresian wrote:It if ticks north any more, this thread may end up being awfully quiet come this weekend.

Even as it stand now it's not exciting for most.

South of 78 ice and rain maybe an inch or two of snow. No thanks

Between 78 and 287 Ice, and maybe 2-5 inches snow. No thanks

Between 287 and I84, lots of ice and 5-10 inches snow. No thanks

North of I84 maybe you want this, but now for most it's useless, probably dangerous and will lose power for a couple of days in sub zero weather. I'm just not a fan of that. Give me all rain instead, maybe some more ticks north and I'll get that.

Storm track of just 50-75 miles more se will have huge implications in the outcome of frozen precip. I highly doubt that any model has it down exactly attm. Not to say things can't get even warmer unfortunately. Have to wait it out as usual.

Yea CP, I will take the snow part then try and forget what else falls. You are not kidding, if we do get that ice with temps in the mid 20s and crashing Sunday power is in jeopardy.

Im not going to lie I am discouraged and disappointed by the trends today. That said, and I said this Tuesday, one run does not make a trend. I have seen this game before where we trend trend trend, come back, then trend to final soln in the last 24-48hrs. I'm "almost" positive my neck of the woods is out of the game for anything other than a few sloppy inches followed by cold driving rain, then maybe some flakes to end things before it all freezes, but many good people in here are VERY close to a really nice event, and many others of our N&W friends WILL do great regardless of last min shifts. Yes it will be a tough pill to swallow listening to you folks cashing in, but it is what it is.

syosnow94 wrote:EURO NORTH. IM CHECKING OUT. TOSS MY MAP. Or at the very least cut the totals by 2/3 everywhere south of Poughkeepsie  WINTER 2018/19 CONTINUES ITS EPIC DISAPPOINTMENT. SEE YA. I’ll log in again maybe Saturday morning to bitch

Please do that in the banter thread only.

Good call here

If the board would prefer me keeping quiet this weekend, I'm happy to do so.

NAVGEM is south, at least lol gotta count for something, no? Lmao

TheAresian wrote:If the board would prefer me keeping quiet this weekend, I'm happy to do so.  

No way you enjoy every minute of it..please post lots of pictures!!

TheAresian wrote:If the board would prefer me keeping quiet this weekend, I'm happy to do so.  

I would personally ban you from this forum for a month if you did that. ABSOLUTELY NOT!!!! YOU POST ALL THE CELEBRATION YOU WANT SO WE CAN LIVE VICARIOUSLY THROUGH YOU!! You deserve this

So everyone at work was bothering me for a snow map (even though I am an extreme amateur at all this). But just to lighten the mood a little bit, here's what I made for them. Horrible scale, horrible drawing, and most likely going to bust. Feel free to laugh.

I'm saying "Yes" to the map.