Sneaky Coastal Wave - Saturday March 2nd 2019

Yeah Ray. As my 1-3/2-4 dividing line approaches Manhattan I was torn about making the 1-3 include everything south of my yellow line from just west of the city and all points east. My c-1/1-3 would stay the same. But my gut, and perhaps it’s some wish casting, tells me the we get just enough phasing and cold air to change back to snow as the low is passing near the BM.  The real phasing doesn’t come until it’s well past us but we’ll see.

sroc4 wrote:Yeah Ray. As my 1-3/2-4 dividing line approaches Manhattan I was torn about making the 1-3 include everything south of my yellow line from just west of the city and all points east. My c-1/1-3 would stay the same. But my gut, and perhaps it’s some wish casting, tells me the we get just enough phasing and cold air to change back to snow as the low is passing near the BM.  The real phasing doesn’t come until it’s well past us but we’ll see.

I just don’t think that there will be strong enough forcing to really maximize your snow growth. Nothing really gets going until it’s already passing us by (forcing-wise), so I think by the time the precipitation field/best dendritic growth starts to respond it will already be east of most of us. Whatever we do get will likely be tainted as you stated above due to the stale airmass in place and nothing synoptically to help reinforce the cold air. The warm air should largely win out again for most except for a narrow band on the northern fringe of the precipitation shield. At least in my opinion lol

rb924119 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Yeah Ray. As my 1-3/2-4 dividing line approaches Manhattan I was torn about making the 1-3 include everything south of my yellow line from just west of the city and all points east. My c-1/1-3 would stay the same. But my gut, and perhaps it’s some wish casting, tells me the we get just enough phasing and cold air to change back to snow as the low is passing near the BM.  The real phasing doesn’t come until it’s well past us but we’ll see.

I just don’t think that there will be strong enough forcing to really maximize your snow growth. Nothing really gets going until it’s already passing us by (forcing-wise), so I think by the time the precipitation field/best dendritic growth starts to respond it will already be east of most of us. Whatever we do get will likely be tainted as you stated above due to the stale airmass in place and nothing synoptically to help reinforce the cold air. The warm air should largely win out again for most except for a narrow band on the northern fringe of the precipitation shield. At least in my opinion lol

Well there is def a neg tilt to the associated trough even if the trough is weak.  If the GFS is handling this 250mb JS better than the euro than there is your mechanism for enhanced vertical motion.  GFS is similar at 300mb as well. However, as usual the Euro is completely diff in its strength and orientation of said JS.

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Yeah Ray. As my 1-3/2-4 dividing line approaches Manhattan I was torn about making the 1-3 include everything south of my yellow line from just west of the city and all points east. My c-1/1-3 would stay the same. But my gut, and perhaps it’s some wish casting, tells me the we get just enough phasing and cold air to change back to snow as the low is passing near the BM.  The real phasing doesn’t come until it’s well past us but we’ll see.

I just don’t think that there will be strong enough forcing to really maximize your snow growth. Nothing really gets going until it’s already passing us by (forcing-wise), so I think by the time the precipitation field/best dendritic growth starts to respond it will already be east of most of us. Whatever we do get will likely be tainted as you stated above due to the stale airmass in place and nothing synoptically to help reinforce the cold air. The warm air should largely win out again for most except for a narrow band on the northern fringe of the precipitation shield. At least in my opinion lol

Well there is def a neg tilt to the associated trough even if the trough is weak.  If the GFS is handling this 250mb JS better than the euro than there is your mechanism for enhanced vertical motion.  GFS is similar at 300mb as well. However, as usual the Euro is completely diff in its strength and orientation of said JS.

NAM is similar with the JS

algae888 wrote:Add the UK to the list for a significant snowstorm this weekend hard to know the exact amount but looks like 8 to 12 in between the two storms for the New York metro area

First storm and second combined for the UKIE. It isnt real without the euro on board.

Euro with another tick colder

sroc4 wrote:Euro  with another tick colder

And a tick warmer with the Sunday into Monday event

amugs wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Euro  with another tick colder

And a tick warmer with the Sunday into Monday event

Wrong thread Scott - start one for Sunday into Monday

At work..no time. Quick update on euro overall.