Sneaky Coastal Wave - Saturday March 2nd 2019

Yeah Ray. As my 1-3/2-4 dividing line approaches Manhattan I was torn about making the 1-3 include everything south of my yellow line from just west of the city and all points east. My c-1/1-3 would stay the same. But my gut, and perhaps it’s some wish casting, tells me the we get just enough phasing and cold air to change back to snow as the low is passing near the BM.  The real phasing doesn’t come until it’s well past us but we’ll see.

sroc4 wrote:Yeah Ray. As my 1-3/2-4 dividing line approaches Manhattan I was torn about making the 1-3 include everything south of my yellow line from just west of the city and all points east. My c-1/1-3 would stay the same. But my gut, and perhaps it’s some wish casting, tells me the we get just enough phasing and cold air to change back to snow as the low is passing near the BM.  The real phasing doesn’t come until it’s well past us but we’ll see.

I just don’t think that there will be strong enough forcing to really maximize your snow growth. Nothing really gets going until it’s already passing us by (forcing-wise), so I think by the time the precipitation field/best dendritic growth starts to respond it will already be east of most of us. Whatever we do get will likely be tainted as you stated above due to the stale airmass in place and nothing synoptically to help reinforce the cold air. The warm air should largely win out again for most except for a narrow band on the northern fringe of the precipitation shield. At least in my opinion lol

rb924119 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Yeah Ray. As my 1-3/2-4 dividing line approaches Manhattan I was torn about making the 1-3 include everything south of my yellow line from just west of the city and all points east. My c-1/1-3 would stay the same. But my gut, and perhaps it’s some wish casting, tells me the we get just enough phasing and cold air to change back to snow as the low is passing near the BM.  The real phasing doesn’t come until it’s well past us but we’ll see.

I just don’t think that there will be strong enough forcing to really maximize your snow growth. Nothing really gets going until it’s already passing us by (forcing-wise), so I think by the time the precipitation field/best dendritic growth starts to respond it will already be east of most of us. Whatever we do get will likely be tainted as you stated above due to the stale airmass in place and nothing synoptically to help reinforce the cold air. The warm air should largely win out again for most except for a narrow band on the northern fringe of the precipitation shield. At least in my opinion lol

Well there is def a neg tilt to the associated trough even if the trough is weak.  If the GFS is handling this 250mb JS better than the euro than there is your mechanism for enhanced vertical motion.  GFS is similar at 300mb as well. However, as usual the Euro is completely diff in its strength and orientation of said JS.

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Yeah Ray. As my 1-3/2-4 dividing line approaches Manhattan I was torn about making the 1-3 include everything south of my yellow line from just west of the city and all points east. My c-1/1-3 would stay the same. But my gut, and perhaps it’s some wish casting, tells me the we get just enough phasing and cold air to change back to snow as the low is passing near the BM.  The real phasing doesn’t come until it’s well past us but we’ll see.

I just don’t think that there will be strong enough forcing to really maximize your snow growth. Nothing really gets going until it’s already passing us by (forcing-wise), so I think by the time the precipitation field/best dendritic growth starts to respond it will already be east of most of us. Whatever we do get will likely be tainted as you stated above due to the stale airmass in place and nothing synoptically to help reinforce the cold air. The warm air should largely win out again for most except for a narrow band on the northern fringe of the precipitation shield. At least in my opinion lol

Well there is def a neg tilt to the associated trough even if the trough is weak.  If the GFS is handling this 250mb JS better than the euro than there is your mechanism for enhanced vertical motion.  GFS is similar at 300mb as well. However, as usual the Euro is completely diff in its strength and orientation of said JS.

NAM is similar with the JS

The latest hrrr is an all snow event for the Friday night Saturday system 3 to 4 in for the New York City metro area

12Z NAM is very enthusiastic about tonight. Maybe even more so than 06z.

heehaw453 wrote:12Z NAM is very enthusiastic about tonight. Maybe even more so than 06z.  

Can't post images from work but a healthy 6" across most of NJ except the far south.

I think 4” max on this. 2-4” is a good call like sroc map.

The Nam is nearly a foot of snow for the two storms all snow for New York City metro. I wonder if today's snowfall is going to have an impact. Should help with low-level cold air and hence the track which the storm will take. Most models only had me with an inch or less I ended up with a slightly over 2 in which is common around most of the area today. first time I can't see my grass since November

algae888 wrote:The Nam is nearly a foot of snow for the two storms all snow for New York City metro. I wonder if today's snowfall is going to have an impact. Should help with low-level cold air and hence the track which the storm will take. Most models only had me with an inch or less I ended up with a slightly over 2 in which is common around most of the area today. first time I can't see my grass since November

I feel along and especially NW of 95 will do very well. I’ve noticed the NAM adjust significantly colder temperatures with basically same track. Dynamics will most likely play a part.

NWS only going with 1-2 inches for tonight in Orange County, but a fairly bullish 4-8 inches for Sunday night.

At the very least it should be an interesting weekend of tracking and nowcasting.

The rgem is also further Southeast then previously runs add the icon to that list with the n a m and so far all guidance is colder and further east with this system I would say in general 3 to 6 in across the area

The GFS is Way Southeast of yesterday in last night's runs a general 3 to 4 in across the New York City metro

algae888 wrote:The rgem is also further Southeast then previously runs add the icon to that list with the n a m and so far all guidance is colder and further east with this system I would say in general 3 to 6 in across the area

Yeah even the stubborn GFS is kicking the low east instead of NE at the Delmarva. This would yield a colder type solution and the SNE folks are probably getting ready to lose it if this keeps up. They got teased by the Euro yesterday.

You guys are underestimating the power of me starting a thread!!!

This has the earmarks of a mesoscale LP that will form off the Delmarva and spawn ENE - seen this tune before and folks get suckered.

GFS BOOYAH BABY!!

HREF - Ensemble pros use for High Resolution Models - says 2-4" - My personal belief is that those in NE NJ and LHV right exit region into SW CT see 3-4"

amugs wrote:HREF - Ensemble pros use for High Resolution Models - says 2-4" - My personal belief is that those in NE NJ and LHV right exit region into SW CT see 3-4"

I'll sign up for that before the main course Sunday/Monday.

Add the UK to the list for a significant snowstorm this weekend hard to know the exact amount but looks like 8 to 12 in between the two storms for the New York metro area

algae888 wrote:Add the UK to the list for a significant snowstorm this weekend hard to know the exact amount but looks like 8 to 12 in between the two storms for the New York metro area

First storm and second combined for the UKIE. It isnt real without the euro on board.

Hrrr continues to tic colder and colder. The 95 remains all snow. 3-4”.

Euro with another tick colder

3-5" baby!!NYC and N , LI, SW CT!

sroc4 wrote:Euro  with another tick colder

And a tick warmer with the Sunday into Monday event

sroc4 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Euro  with another tick colder

And a tick warmer with the Sunday into Monday event

Wrong thread Scott - start one for Sunday into Monday

amugs wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Euro  with another tick colder

And a tick warmer with the Sunday into Monday event

Wrong thread Scott - start one for Sunday into Monday

At work..no time. Quick update on euro overall.