Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm

Irish wrote:Is there a place here where all the abbreviations are defined?  Like BM, cause i know it's not bowel movement.

BM= Bench Mark

I'm not really sure why NYC and Middlesex County NJ are not in WSW's based on all the guidance. Mount Holly left Middlesex out of WWA's last night and they had over 4" in part of the area. My guess is their afternoon update will fix that.

EPS MEAN is very nice


00
WWUS41 KOKX 021550
WSWOKX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
1050 AM EST Sat Mar 2 2019

CTZ005>010-NJZ002-004-103-104-NYZ067>071-022300-
/O.CAN.KOKX.WW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-190302T1700Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.A.0003.190303T1800Z-190304T1200Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-
1050 AM EST Sat Mar 2 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Moderate to heavy snow possible. Total snow
accumulations of 5 to 8 inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, most of southern
Connecticut and portions of southeast New York.

* WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. The
hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute

Mt Holly has extended the Winter Storm Watches Southeast. 18z Nam comes in a little warmer

Winter storm watch when open effect for New York City so far they have me 4 To 6 inches I hope this goes up if not I am happy with that

The winter storm watch for Orange County is for 5-8 inches, yet their own map shows 8-12 inches for the entire county. That's a little odd.

OKAyyy, 3km nam says nowhere near NWS, minor event taken verbatim. I don't believe this run though it is in its time frame, maybe not a good sign? Lots of rain on that run too even inland.

Each run of the last 4 except the 06z have shown an areawide 1-6 (6 in very few spots) any thoughts as to why hi-res model is showing such low numbers? Or is this on point? It certainly doesnt match Franks or NWS maps. It also ends around 3am basically, the roads should be cleared by 7 to 9am, I would be hesitant even with more snow that this would close schools, maybe a delay but widespread closures beginning sunday night I dunno. I am planning for work Monday and IF not then it'll be a nice surprise. Not trying to be negative just stating what I am seeing on SR.

nutleyblizzard wrote:
18z NAM

How is it the 3km is so diff from its lower resolution equal? As can be seend 3km has almost no snow for interior while regular NAM has little for the coast and 6+ inland. Weird.

Yeah. I sure hope I'm wrong, but i don't like depending on WAA frontogensis (warm air advection) events for large snows meaning 6"+ in March with a marginally cold air mass. I think in this type of air mass you'd need a more dynamic system for the bigger snows.

The NAM has been drying up for several runs now and is a red flag to me. I'm setting my expectations about 4" on this one and will be pleasantly surprised for more.

So maybe the weather channel had had my area correct the entire time? Mostly rain, less than an inch of slop.

Well unlike the NAM, the RGEM at 18z does hold

Wow, that's 10.8 right over my area (the highest total on the map) and the weather channel just added my area to the winter storm watch listing 2-4, yet the hourly says less than an inch. LoL!

Still a lot of uncertainty with track and precipitation amounts according to Upton Disco they are also discounting the euro which doesn't happen too often the one thing we will have to fight with this one is that surface temps will be above freezing when precipitation starts so it may take a few hours for it to start accumulating

Do we have a start time for around Orange County new York we are traveling up that way for family engagement party.

I can see a core of 4 to 6 in max. Just moving too fast !!!!!

Besides moving fast, it looks southward too much to hit me (upper Orange County) which is why I see 4 inches on the RGEM. Boo hoo.

algae888 wrote:Still a lot of uncertainty with track and precipitation amounts according to Upton Disco they are also discounting the euro which doesn't happen too often the one thing we will have to fight with this one is that surface temps will be above freezing when precipitation starts so it may take a few hours for it to start accumulating

I would be shocked if the Euro botched this storm badly enough to be disrespected by the nws. But it’s been messing the track up so far so why not.

The coastal sections look to be in precarious shape. But 36 hours out the south part of the Jersey Shore ALWAYS looks bad...so, I'm not too worried for my own end.

Every time we get 6-8" or more down here, I wake up that morning to my TWC app saying 1-3" with a mix. ha ha  every time
mt holly usually says less than that ha ha  

on here, you guys do it right: 1-3" or 3-6", often noting the potential for more, but still holding our total because of mixing issues...which quite often pan out and about once a year or so, do not.

I have zero real expectations for my back yard, but I wouldn't be surprised at any outcome right now...and that's the first time I can say that this for 6"+ all year!  

And I cannot wait to track this baby tonight!!

NWS slashed their snowmap huge and northern areas went from 8-12 to 4-6 and the strip of high end 6-8. It looks exactly like rgem and a bit higher than 3km NAM but same area.

Hearing the 18z EURO is pretty good

jmanley32 wrote:NWS slashed their snowmap huge and northern areas went from 8-12 to 4-6 and the strip of high end 6-8.  It looks exactly like rgem and a bit higher than 3km NAM but same area.

Here in North Central Hunterdon we've consistently been in that sweet spot for a couple of days now so hope it holds.

Very good run on the EURO actually. Big area of 6-10" for Northern and even some of Central Jersey. Parts of LI and LHV as well

You see that SENJ? Winter storm warning for Ocean county. 2-4 inches. I don't know how true that holds for us coastal ocean folks but the alert was a surprise.