Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm

Radz wrote:not liking the temps, timing, and speed of this system this morning- will definitely have a negative impact on accumulations- hopefully we see some good rates to try and counter a bit

That was always the case for today it was going to be in the mid 30s

skinsfan1177 wrote:

Radz wrote:not liking the temps, timing, and speed of this system this morning- will definitely have a negative impact on accumulations- hopefully we see some good rates to try and counter a bit

That was always the case for today it was going to be in the mid 30s

I'm at 33 with bright sunshine, barely touched the freezing mark overnight, with precip starting before nightfall, warm ground temps will prevent sticking at onset for sure here...

Key will be how much it intensifies off the coast and how much the backside therefore fills in before it pulls away. This is particularly true the further south and east you go where you’ll lose a lot of snow accumulation to the front end rain and warm ground. Areas just north and west of the r/s line will already get a good hit due to heavy rates immediately after it changes to snow this evening, so they don’t need it to last as long. But south and east needs this to hang on with some heavy rates for a few more hours tomorrow AM (which the gfs sort of shows) say, a 9 am end time instead of a 4 am end time.

I think areas in central and north NJ away from the coast get a good few inches even if this ends by 3 or 4 am, but south and east not as much. That’s why a deepening off the coast before it pulls away would make a bigger difference down there.

I think the shot at big dog snow is if the low can close off around ACY latitude. I think that would slow it down and banding would occur 195 points north. These storms have a mind of their own and have seen it before.

Certainly not predicting that but possible.

Here is my current thinking:
Green: Mostly rain with some snow toward the end; little accumulation.
Pink: 2-4”; Rain changes to snow at times, but a constant battle between rain, sleet and snow keeps totals lower.
Blue: 4-8”; Rain changes to heavy snow in evening and continues until after midnight before tapering to light snow and ending by daybreak.
Gray: 3-5” of snow. Mostly snow here but heaviest banding stays south and east of this region.

The 12z NAM is coming in now. Lookin snowy!

billg315 wrote:Here is my current thinking:
Green: Mostly rain with some snow toward the end; little accumulation.
Pink: 2-4”; Rain changes to snow at times, but a constant battle between rain, sleet and snow keeps totals lower.
Blue: 4-8”; Rain changes to heavy snow in evening and continues until after midnight before tapering to light snow and ending by daybreak.
Gray: 3-5” of snow. Mostly snow here but heaviest banding stays south and east of this region.

works for me rooting for the high end. At the low end it will be less than yesterday. We will see.

Frank_Wx wrote:The 12z NAM is coming in now. Lookin snowy!

big diff there's no rain at the front end it appears there.

One negative trend since my last post is the duration of this storm cut back significantly. It looks like snow will begin around 4pm and end by 1am. It was ending at 6am yesterday. Roads should be cleaned up by Monday morning.

I still like my snow map

jmanley32 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:The 12z NAM is coming in now. Lookin snowy!

big diff there's no rain at the front end it appears there.

The first 30 minutes or so could be rain for some, including NYC

Frank_Wx wrote:One negative trend since my last post is the duration of this storm cut back significantly. It looks like snow will begin around 4pm and end by 1am. It was ending at 6am yesterday. Roads should be cleaned up by Monday morning.

I still like my snow map

yeah that really stinks was really rooting for school off. Only hope is if they call it tonight. They can't change it once they call it. The wsw is until 7am so hopefully they look at that. But not sure why its till 7am 6 hrs later than the end if the runs are right.

Here is the NAM snow map. Almost a carbon copy of my snow map. I think the totals near CNJ could be underdone a bit because this map tries to take into account warm surface temps. But I have a feeling the snowfall rates will overcome that

12z NAM puts NNJ/NWNJ and EPA right in the jackpot, a major reshuffling atop the leader board as the storm approaches...whose horse comes in at the finish line?

We're going to find out soon...And down the stretch they come!!!

SENJsnowman wrote:12z NAM puts NNJ/NWNJ and EPA right in the jackpot, a major reshuffling atop the leader board as the storm approaches...whose horse comes in at the finish line?

We're going to find out soon...And down the stretch they come!!!

Here's hoping Hunterdon county is Secretariat at the Belmont!!

Sea biscuit for the win peeps up here peeps!!
Morning
GEM LAM, RGEM, EURO, UKIE All showing a good 6-9/10" swath from N CNJ up through SW CT.
It will be moving fast that is for sure.
End time showing around 1am NAM, other models say 3-4 am ish. Time will tell but I won't be up for this LOL.
Biggest storm this winter for many on this board so enjoy it.
GEM LAM wowza - please verify

Frank_Wx wrote:Here is the NAM snow map. Almost a carbon copy of my snow map. I think the totals near CNJ could be underdone a bit because this map tries to take into account warm surface temps. But I have a feeling the snowfall rates will overcome that

Nam has been having big time issues with QPF surface plots vs snowfall projections. For example, where I reside in Essex County I receive 6 inches of snow with 1"QPF being all snow! The only explanation like you said Frank is the Nam is struggling with surface temps.

nutleyblizzard wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Here is the NAM snow map. Almost a carbon copy of my snow map. I think the totals near CNJ could be underdone a bit because this map tries to take into account warm surface temps. But I have a feeling the snowfall rates will overcome that

Nam has been having big time issues with QPF surface plots vs snowfall projections. For example, where I reside in Essex County I receive 6 inches of snow with 1"QPF being all snow! The only explanation like you said Frank is the Nam is struggling with surface temps.

It's good to see it at least adjusted for the DC/Baltimore area. It was showing 9 inches over Baltimore yesterday and they won't even see an inch.

I think this is underdone in NNJ and NYC where temps will be colder and most precip coming after sunset.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

nutleyblizzard wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Here is the NAM snow map. Almost a carbon copy of my snow map. I think the totals near CNJ could be underdone a bit because this map tries to take into account warm surface temps. But I have a feeling the snowfall rates will overcome that

Nam has been having big time issues with QPF surface plots vs snowfall projections. For example, where I reside in Essex County I receive 6 inches of snow with 1"QPF being all snow! The only explanation like you said Frank is the Nam is struggling with surface temps.

It's good to see it at least adjusted for the DC/Baltimore area. It was showing 9 inches over Baltimore yesterday and they won't even see an inch.

I think this is underdone in NNJ and NYC where temps will be colder and most precip coming after sunset.

what's with the snow hole between the two pink areas? Its go shut off over NYC area after it dumps in nj and restart in ct? That map doesn't make sense.

amugs wrote:Sea biscuit for the win peeps up here peeps!!
Morning
GEM LAM, RGEM, EURO, UKIE All showing a good 6-9/10" swath from N CNJ up through SW CT.
It will be moving fast that is for sure.
End time showing around 1am NAM, other models say 3-4 am ish. Time will tell but I won't be up for this LOL.
Biggest storm this winter for many on this board so enjoy it.
GEM LAM wowza - please verify

this has a gap too between nj and ct why lower snow totals to break that strip?

jmanley32 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

nutleyblizzard wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Here is the NAM snow map. Almost a carbon copy of my snow map. I think the totals near CNJ could be underdone a bit because this map tries to take into account warm surface temps. But I have a feeling the snowfall rates will overcome that

Nam has been having big time issues with QPF surface plots vs snowfall projections. For example, where I reside in Essex County I receive 6 inches of snow with 1"QPF being all snow! The only explanation like you said Frank is the Nam is struggling with surface temps.

It's good to see it at least adjusted for the DC/Baltimore area. It was showing 9 inches over Baltimore yesterday and they won't even see an inch.

I think this is underdone in NNJ and NYC where temps will be colder and most precip coming after sunset.

what's with the snow hole between the two pink areas? Its go shut off over NYC area after it dumps in nj and restart in ct? That map doesn't make sense.

I read on another board last night that don't bother looking at snowfall maps with marginal temp issues such as this. Focus more on the sounding maps. Problem is I'm ashamed to say I don't know how to read them.

Here's that rgem map.

The closer you are to the yellow zones the more in the battle zones it seems you are. N/W you need the precip. S/E we need the cold.

Definitely now cast coming up...also thinking soundings will tell the story, bit have no idea what that means! lol

SENJsnowman wrote:Here's that rgem map.

The closer you are to the yellow zones the more in the battle zones it seems you are. N/W you need the precip. S/E we need the cold.

Definitely now cast coming up...also thinking soundings will tell the story, bit have no idea what that means! lol

Well where ever syo is he should be happy LI jackpots on this run, tip 12+ wow

Rgem is intensifying coastal BM track. NYC and LI would do quite well.

If the rgem were just a tad but more north with the heaviest fprecip this would be a low end godzilla for some.

jmanley32 wrote:

SENJsnowman wrote:Here's that rgem map.

The closer you are to the yellow zones the more in the battle zones it seems you are. N/W you need the precip. S/E we need the cold.

Definitely now cast coming up...also thinking soundings will tell the story, bit have no idea what that means! lol

Well where ever syo is he should be happy LI jackpots on this run, tip 12+ wow

Red Sox Suck gets 15” so it would still be disappointing