Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm

If the rgem were just a tad but more north with the heaviest fprecip this would be a low end godzilla for some.

jmanley32 wrote:

SENJsnowman wrote:Here's that rgem map.

The closer you are to the yellow zones the more in the battle zones it seems you are. N/W you need the precip. S/E we need the cold.

Definitely now cast coming up...also thinking soundings will tell the story, bit have no idea what that means! lol

Well where ever syo is he should be happy LI jackpots on this run, tip 12+ wow

Red Sox Suck gets 15” so it would still be disappointing

jman, every snow map on troptid is so consistent with this core snow location, and you look to be squarely inside that!  Lot's of factors, many bad i know, but it's nice to have that going for ya!  

I-95 is the southern edge of this so-called 'lock-zone' with a northern border running parallel maybe 75-100 mile to the north of it thru E Pa, the Poc's, NWNJ and LHV.



To me the black lines represent the battle zones for big snow. Even being just 25 mi to the south of the lower axis, I'm on the outside looking in. Coastal Monmouth and I think all of Ocean counties need some luck with offshore track, coastal intensity, better temps...something. But given how flawed modeling is, that 'luck' comes in often enough that it's worth watching.

Without any big change, looks another 2-3" best scenario for the southern and northern portions of the group.

Scullybutcher wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

SENJsnowman wrote:Here's that rgem map.

The closer you are to the yellow zones the more in the battle zones it seems you are. N/W you need the precip. S/E we need the cold.

Definitely now cast coming up...also thinking soundings will tell the story, bit have no idea what that means! lol

Well where ever syo is he should be happy LI jackpots on this run, tip 12+ wow

Red Sox Suck gets 15” so it would still be disappointing

Thats south of beantown but still yeah parts of mass look to get well over a foot.

SENJsnowman wrote:jman, every snow map on troptid is so consistent with this core snow location, and you look to be squarely inside that!  Lot's of factors, many bad i know, but it's nice to have that going for ya!  

I-95 is the southern edge of this so-called 'lock-zone' with a northern border running parallel maybe 75-100 mile to the north of it thru E Pa, the Poc's, NWNJ and LHV.



To me the black lines represent the battle zones for big snow. Even being just 25 mi to the south of the lower axis, I'm on the outside looking in. Coastal Monmouth and I think all of Ocean counties need some luck with offshore track, coastal intensity, better temps...something. But given how flawed modeling is, that 'luck' comes in often enough that it's worth watching.

Without any big change, looks another 2-3" best scenario for the southern and northern portions of the group.

True enough, I am basically in the center, far enough away from both battle zones.

I'm not in any way trying to jinx you, but it's the day of and look at you now...

When I was 'locked and loaded' in the jackpot zone heading into that Jan 4 Blizzard last winter, I went into hiding! lol I didn't dare move until the storm hit...I thought anything I said or did was gonna jinx it! ha ha

SENJsnowman wrote:I'm not in any way trying to jinx you, but it's the day of and look at you now...

When I was 'locked and loaded' in the jackpot zone heading into that Jan 4 Blizzard last winter, I went into hiding! lol  I didn't dare move until the storm hit...I thought anything I said or did was gonna jinx it! ha ha

Luckily I am not really a superstitious person. LOL

Wow to HRRR!!

8pm shot those are some seriously heavy rates! Also starts later and still showing in NYC area at 3am at a decent rate.

Model projections have slightly increased snow totals for NYC this morning. Keep in mind though that they assume that the snow/mix line will stay south of NYC. If it ends up creeping into NYC, it would cut down on snow accumulations. Also keep in mind that it is near 40 degrees with filtered sunshine. While I expect dynamic cooling to take place as the snow comes in, the current temperature needs to be factored in.

But if these two features do not interfere, this would be a 6" snowstorm for NYC starting in the early evening hours and going until around daybreak tomorrow morning.

HRRR is showing decent backend snow, still snowing at 4am in NYC area and into eastern parts of NJ.

4am monday, if HRRR is right we may have a chance at school closings in the 6+ areas.

Without question a delayed opening for jmanley tomorrow and quite possibly no school!

jmanley32 wrote:Wow to HRRR!!

8pm shot those are some seriously heavy rates! Also starts later and still showing in NYC area at 3am at a decent rate.

Seems those heavy rates are key.  Temps look slightly above freezing throughout the event around the city.

Irish wrote:Without question a delayed opening for jmanley tomorrow and quite possibly no school!  

I do work for a private school though so they kind of do things differently, if the busses cancel they still call half of us in and its my turn to go in. If there is a delay we go in after the delay, and obviously if we are closed we are closed, we were closed for that last storm and it did not amount to much of anything so my thinking is they might make the call tonight, the kids are developmentally delayed and they have to be very cautious with 18-36 month olds.

Yeah, that's definitely different J. I'm a 5th grade, special education teacher for a public school system.

Irish wrote:Yeah, that's definitely different J.  I'm a 5th grade, special education teacher for a public school system.

NWS just bumped me from 4-8 to 5-9. Really meaningless but better than dropping. Possible they are now looking at short range models.

Irish and Jman - I have so much respect for what you do. 100% admiration. Thank you.

Grselig wrote:

Irish wrote:Yeah, that's definitely different J.  I'm a 5th grade, special education teacher for a public school system.

NWS just bumped me from 4-8 to 5-9.  Really meaningless but better than dropping.  Possible they are now looking at short range models.

Irish and Jman - I have so much respect for what you do.  100% admiration.  Thank you.

Thanks man its a very exhausting job and not much compensation though my program has a way to get big increases but it involves a lot of extra work at home. I do something called ABA which is a scientific method of teaching these little guys and gals, they really blossom. A delay isnt too bad and if its half staff with no bussing its a easy short day. Regular day is 8-3:15 with kids there only 9-2. If we delay the day is about 4-5 hrs with only 2.5 hrs with the kids, there are two sessions both 2.5 hrs long. I really like it though, not so much the expectations of the school which are a bit much but seeing the kids learn with this method is so rewarding. Glad to hear snow amounts are being upped and hey one inch more on the high end is 1 inch!

HRRR is a bit north of other guidance but it crushes most.

jmanley32 wrote:

Grselig wrote:

Irish wrote:Yeah, that's definitely different J.  I'm a 5th grade, special education teacher for a public school system.

NWS just bumped me from 4-8 to 5-9.  Really meaningless but better than dropping.  Possible they are now looking at short range models.

Irish and Jman - I have so much respect for what you do.  100% admiration.  Thank you.

Thanks man its a very exhausting job and not much compensation though my program has a way to get big increases but it involves a lot of extra work at home.  I do something called ABA which is a scientific method of teaching these little guys and gals, they really blossom.  A delay isnt too bad and if its half staff with no bussing its a easy short day. Regular day is 8-3:15 with kids there only 9-2.  If we delay the day is about 4-5 hrs with only 2.5 hrs with the kids, there are two sessions both 2.5 hrs long.  I really like it though, not so much the expectations of the school which are a bit much but seeing the kids learn with this method is so rewarding.  Glad to hear snow amounts are being upped and hey one inch more on the high end is 1 inch!  

Yeah I'm familiar with ABA.  Good teachers make a huge difference in a child's life, with exponential results that last a lifetime, good or bad.

Sounds like you're working with kids with autism jman. Tough gig. I have 3 kids with autism this year in the mainstream. And thx Grselig, love my job!

Let's keep unticking those snow totals!!

Irish wrote:Sounds like you're working with kids with autism jman.  Tough kid. I have 3 kids with autism this year in the mainstream.  And thx Grselig, love my job!

Let's keep unticking those snow totals!!

Yes most do, 9 in the morning and 9 in the afternoon, 4 teachers.

My wife is supposed to go to Hoboken for a cooking class from 7-9pm with friends and she doesn't want to go due to the storm. The owner does not give refunds and says they are supposed to get 1-2 inches of rain so why would he cancel. What forecast is he listening to?

Leading edge of precip shield approaching I-76 corridor near Philly. May see first rain showers or snow showers in NNJ by about 5 pm.

Fededle22 wrote:My wife is supposed to go to Hoboken for a cooking class from 7-9pm with friends and she doesn't want to go due to the storm. The owner does not give refunds and says they are supposed to get 1-2 inches of rain so why would he cancel. What forecast is he listening to?

Is he on crack? It will be snowing heavily by 9 pm across most of NNJ.

billg315 wrote:

Fededle22 wrote:My wife is supposed to go to Hoboken for a cooking class from 7-9pm with friends and she doesn't want to go due to the storm. The owner does not give refunds and says they are supposed to get 1-2 inches of rain so why would he cancel. What forecast is he listening to?

Is he on crack? It will be snowing heavily by 9 pm across most of NNJ.

At the same time, I think Mt Holly is on crack in the other direction.

In what is the most out of character move I have seen anywhere in a while, NWS has put Ocean County to a warning and upped their call to 4-7" for 'portions of southern NJ"?!?!

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...HEAVY WET SNOW AND SLEET EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES EXPECTED. * WHERE...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA, NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND NORTHERN DELAWARE. * WHEN...RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN ALL SNOW OCCURS INTO THIS EVENING.



Whatever, I'll be here a-tracking either way, but I think the coast is toast, not the host to boast the most roast...

Yeah I’m having a hard time seeing Ocean County do over 4” due to a lot of rain and the possibility of a sleet fest in the areas that do change over. Maybe far NW Ocean County could crack into the higher numbers.

Fededle22 wrote:My wife is supposed to go to Hoboken for a cooking class from 7-9pm with friends and she doesn't want to go due to the storm. The owner does not give refunds and says they are supposed to get 1-2 inches of rain so why would he cancel. What forecast is he listening to?

Sounds like some bad reviews are in order shortly