Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

by **rb924119** Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:20 pm

jmanley32 wrote:wow 12z euro is bad 48 hrs he takes to go a few hundred miles and hrs 72 to 96 barely moves at all over bahamas totally wreaking havoc and flirting florida, really bad news if true.

Edit OMG he pulls a matthew!! and misses FL. Makes it to NC not having made landfall anywhere, this would be the best case senario with some impacts, can we really get a run like this for real? And looks headed OTS after that. I know its one run but thats a big change and would really change the concern level.

by **Grselig** Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:32 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:wow 12z euro is bad 48 hrs he takes to go a few hundred miles and hrs 72 to 96 barely moves at all over bahamas totally wreaking havoc and flirting florida, really bad news if true.

Edit OMG he pulls a matthew!! and misses FL. Makes it to NC not having made landfall anywhere, this would be the best case senario with some impacts, can we really get a run like this for real? And looks headed OTS after that. I know its one run but thats a big change and would really change the concern level.

Nearly every year we experience this back and forth. Hopefully the slowing down and some changes in the trough north allow it to go out to sea. As much as I love the drama and excitement of weather, unlike snow, there is no way I want it to hit land. Keeping fingers crossed that FL is spared. All I want is for us to get some good rain. But one good model does not put us out of danger.

by **aiannone** Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:52 pm

Shift east in the 18z tracks

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 30, 2019 6:43 pm

The icon is out of its mind, it takes 60 hours to cross florida (late sunday to midday wednesday) and isn't even completely offshore of tampa by then, if this happens good lord help them all. No way this happens and only model showing a gulf move.

by **SoulSingMG** Fri Aug 30, 2019 6:59 pm

Ahh, I'm gonna go out on a not-so-long limb here and guess the next NHC update is one of a CAT 4 'cane.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Aug 30, 2019 7:10 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:Ahh, I'm gonna go out on a not-so-long limb here and guess the next NHC update is one of a CAT 4 'cane.

A few moments ago Levi on Twitter said 946mb.

Uhm. Wow.

by **amugs** Fri Aug 30, 2019 7:36 pm

Jesus H Frank I just saw Levi tweet and that is insane. Maybe the biggest 6 he pressure drop wave in the Atlantic Basin.
The other uneasy feeling I'd there is not a distinct steering current once beyongbthe Bahamas. I think this is what the ICON maybe picking up on.
The currents are weak which means it could indeed stall or crawl for a while as it ravages the coast. Don't really care if it 30 miles offshore ashe is a beast and will inflict heavy damage.
1960 Gloria Hcane was a cat 4 through a 2 all the way formula to Maine and she rode the coast and ravage the eastern seaboard. CP, DOC anyone else recall her.
She will be upgraded to a 4 and by morning could be a 5 as she is just RI. God help the Bahamian peeps and anyone in her path in Fla.

by **amugs** Fri Aug 30, 2019 7:42 pm

A dropsonde from the recon mission has found winds of ~135 mph in the NW eye wall of #Dorian.

Posted by Allan Huffman Wx Met NYC

Category 4 likely at the 8 PM NHC update.

by **hyde345** Fri Aug 30, 2019 8:03 pm

20 MB drop in 3 hours in insane. Shocked

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 30, 2019 8:08 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:Ahh, I'm gonna go out on a not-so-long limb here and guess the next NHC update is one of a CAT 4 'cane.

A few moments ago Levi on Twitter said 946mb.

Uhm. Wow.

Holy crap thats 30+ mb drop since 5pm!!!

by **Joe Snow** Fri Aug 30, 2019 8:24 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:Ahh, I'm gonna go out on a not-so-long limb here and guess the next NHC update is one of a CAT 4 'cane.

A few moments ago Levi on Twitter said 946mb.

Uhm. Wow.
Holy crap thats 30+ mb drop since 5pm!!!

That's nuts Wow!!! and Yikes

by **Joe Snow** Fri Aug 30, 2019 8:29 pm

Stalling over the Grand Bahama Island for 38 hours??? A. no way B. if that happened the island would be wiped out.

by **SoulSingMG** Fri Aug 30, 2019 8:33 pm

Joe Snow wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:Ahh, I'm gonna go out on a not-so-long limb here and guess the next NHC update is one of a CAT 4 'cane.

A few moments ago Levi on Twitter said 946mb.

Uhm. Wow.
Holy crap thats 30+ mb drop since 5pm!!!

That's nuts Wow!!! and Yikes

DORIAN NOW A CAT 4 PER NHC!

by **Joe Snow** Fri Aug 30, 2019 8:39 pm

DORIAN NOW A CAT 4 PER NHC!

I was just on the site where did you see that????

by **Joe Snow** Fri Aug 30, 2019 8:40 pm

Joe Snow wrote:DORIAN NOW A CAT 4 PER NHC!

I was just on the site where did you see that????

Never mind..........

000
WTNT65 KNHC 310027
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
830 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019

...DORIAN STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...

Data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters indicate that Dorian has
strengthened to an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane with
maximum sustained winds near 130 mph (215 km/h). This increase in
intensity will be reflected in the forecast issued at 1100 pm EDT
(0300 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 830 PM AST...0030 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 71.0W
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:00 pm

Just saw on TWC HH found 170mph flight level winds suggesting that intensity is still rapidly going up. Brevard county mandatory evacuations and a huge gas shortage.

by **nutleyblizzard** Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:02 pm

by **docstox12** Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:06 pm

amugs wrote:Jesus H Frank I just saw Levi tweet and that is insane. Maybe the biggest 6 he pressure drop wave in the Atlantic Basin.
The other uneasy feeling I'd there is not a distinct steering current once beyongbthe Bahamas. I think this is what the ICON maybe picking up on.
The currents are weak which means it could indeed stall or crawl for a while as it ravages the coast. Don't really care if it 30 miles offshore ashe is a beast and will inflict heavy damage.
1960 Gloria Hcane was a cat 4 through a 2 all the way formula to Maine and she rode the coast and ravage the eastern seaboard. CP, DOC anyone else recall her.
She will be upgraded to a 4 and by morning could be a 5 as she is just RI. God help the Bahamian peeps and anyone in her path in Fla.

Mugs, that was Hurricane Donna in September 1960 and I sure as heck remember it.The trees in the backyard in Fort Lee were bent over 30 degrees, I thought they would snap in two.Winds so bad it rattled you.What a weather year up here,three months later the December 1960 Snowstorm on the 11th and 12th.
Looks like guidance is pushing this off the Florida Coast.Usually they turn away from that area.Let's see what happens with this one.Very very dangerous storm and the intensification is breath taking.

by **rb924119** Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:52 pm

Based on my latest analysis, I see no reason to change my earlier thinking that Dorian with either come up along the Southeast coast or track within 100 miles of it offshore.

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 31, 2019 4:52 am

Wow rb hands off to you, GFS and Euro 00z boh miss florida completely with no effects other than beach erosion (which isnt good but they have dealt with plenty) and then it slams carolinas not so good. I know its one model run but this has been the slow progression of the models each run for a day or 2 now and NHC cone follows suit. I think florida though cannot put their guard down can start to slowly take a sigh of relief in the coming days, i think my prayers for all those I know on the EC of Florida is working.

by **billg315** Sat Aug 31, 2019 9:24 am

Fingers crossed that the re-curve trend continues and it misses a direct hit on both Florida and the Carolinas before heading OTS. Looks like both will get a lot of rain and wind either way but if the center can stay a distance off the coast without landfall a huge difference in impacts (especially surge).

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:12 am

imagine he just cuts a hard right 500 miles from florida and goes ots,

by **Radz** Sat Aug 31, 2019 11:04 am

150mph down to 945

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 31, 2019 11:35 am

Yep but cone moving further and further away from Florida at this point tropical storm impacts will prolly he wcs. What a relief and supposed weaken to cat 2 before Carolinas. If the nhc track is right. Dorian certainly has a mind of his own and again good call rb you could saved Florida a whole lot trouble.

by **amugs** Sat Aug 31, 2019 11:41 am

11:00 AM EDT Sat Aug 31
Location: 26.0°N 73.4°W
Moving: W at 8 mph
Min pressure: 945 mb
Max sustained: 150 mph

Grand Bahamas are getting devastated by this.

The Upper Air Pattern is showing the ULL that is dragging Heavy D along with it is weakening and pulling west into the GOM. AT the same time HD is slowing or stalling - good and bad here why?
Good - if it stalls over shallow waters it will weaken and the up-welling of the waters will decrease its intensity. Also it will allow this beast to meander and take the path of least resistance and not be pulled West but wobble until it climbs the coast into the Ga and Carolina Region.
BAD: IF it stalls over the gulf Stream that Heavy D will strengthen due to the environment she will be in. If it stalls and strengthens and then rides the coast this will inflict damage to the coast and further up the coast as well.

If this beast gets inside 75 W there is a higher than normal chance it will make landfall.
If it gets to 77W then landfall is almost certain - since the early 1900's only 1 out of the 12 hcances that hit this benchmark curved OTS and the air pattern was MUCH different.

Pray the Grand Bahamas cause they are about to get whacked.

by **amugs** Sat Aug 31, 2019 11:45 am

From Phillipe Papin
I'm watching #Dorian today if it begins to move due W or even has a S component of motion.

The last few #ECMWF ensemble cycles continue slowing down Dorian's trk, w/ an increasing # of members showing a SW motion in the Bahamas.

A direct Florida landfall is still very possible.

The track has shifted A LOT with NHC cone the past few days so anything is still possible. As I told my wife's Aunt dont let your guard down and prepare - an ounce of prevention is worth its weight in Gold!!!

by **SoulSingMG** Sat Aug 31, 2019 12:16 pm

Also from Philippe:

"This is getting to the point where using the GEFS guidance becomes dangerous. The prob. of a Florida landfall based on its latest guidance would be inferred to be zero.

That is not correct, the GEFS just does not have enough members/spread to show all the possible outcomes. Not to mention that the GEFS is based off the old GFS-legacy model and won't be upgraded till 2020. This might sound harsh, but I've found it best to just ignore its guidance in its entirety."

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