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2019 TROPICAL SEASON

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Post by sroc4 Mon May 20, 2019 5:03 pm

Well there is the first code red.  I have looked at zero details but its there.

2019 TROPICAL SEASON Two_atl_2d0

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 0.00 
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Post by billg315 Tue May 21, 2019 10:09 am

40 mph winds and min pressure of 1007 mb. Drifting north but appears to soon be heading east OTS, likely missing Bermuda to the south on its current projection. Should weaken as it does so.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Jun 02, 2019 1:23 pm

2019 TROPICAL SEASON Two_at10
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Post by sroc4 Mon Jun 10, 2019 5:54 pm

If this 200mb map is correct then we will have to wait until at least July before we see anything develop of significance tropical wise. Warm colors = upper air convergence which leads to surface air divergence which = not conducive for trop development. Notice the trop Atlantic is bathed in the wwarm colors for the next two weeks..IF the forecast is correct. Weak El Nino likely a key player as to why. 

2019 TROPICAL SEASON Twc_globe_mjo_vp200

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 0.00 
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jul 06, 2019 3:35 pm

This is a first and no its not a mistake, theres an area to watch over the central US moving to the GOM. 20% in the 5 day 0% in the 2 day.


2019 TROPICAL SEASON Two_at11
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Post by Snow88 Mon Jul 08, 2019 9:44 am

Euro has a Cat 1 into the border of LA and TX at 144 hours
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Post by GreyBeard Mon Jul 08, 2019 1:56 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:This is a first and no its not a mistake, theres an area to watch over the central US moving to the GOM. 20% in the 5 day 0% in the 2 day.


2019 TROPICAL SEASON Two_at11

Nice call jman. Came across this today. Offers a good explanation.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/look-out-gulf-coast-residents-you-may-be-hit-with-the-first-tropical-system-of-the-season/ar-AADZnq4?ocid=SK2HDHP

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Post by billg315 Tue Jul 09, 2019 1:47 pm

Tis' the season. Been quiet on the Atlantic side thus far (not all that unusual for June-early July), so due to start popping a bit in the next few weeks as we approach the peak season.
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Post by dkodgis Wed Jul 10, 2019 10:07 am

Looks like the storm will be supercharged by the seasonably warm waters.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jul 10, 2019 6:06 pm

It is progged to be a 85mph hurricane into louisiana but its moving so slowly I am very affraid of a repeat of a few years ago for 50 inches of rain.
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Post by billg315 Wed Jul 10, 2019 7:14 pm

I think the wind impacts are minimal with this (for a hurricane) but those rain projections are horrific. And there is no place worse for 30-plus inches of rain than southeast Louisiana/New Orleans.
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Post by Snow88 Wed Jul 10, 2019 8:54 pm

The Atlantic has to watch out moving forward. The waters are very warm.
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Post by dkodgis Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:41 am

State of emergency now in Louisiana
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Post by billg315 Thu Jul 11, 2019 2:50 pm

Tropical Storm Barry it is. 40 mph winds, 1006 mb pressure. Presently forecast to make it to Cat One by landfall with rain and flooding the major concerns.
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Post by Joe Snow Thu Jul 11, 2019 6:43 pm

@Snow88 wrote:The Atlantic has to watch out moving forward. The waters are very warm.

very very true..............

https://www.seatemperature.org/
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Post by dkodgis Thu Jul 11, 2019 7:24 pm

And I hope in two weeks, no storm hits Florida because I have to go there
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jul 12, 2019 2:56 pm

Not sure if there’s a separate discussion elsewhere, but just some food for thought on an otherwise boring day lol discussion is between myself (blue) and a met-friend of mine (white):

2019 TROPICAL SEASON A951f310
2019 TROPICAL SEASON 96e45f10
2019 TROPICAL SEASON 1f360910
2019 TROPICAL SEASON F587d210
2019 TROPICAL SEASON 88aed610


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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jul 12, 2019 11:17 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Not sure if there’s a separate discussion elsewhere, but just some food for thought on an otherwise boring day lol discussion is between myself (blue) and a met-friend of mine (white):

2019 TROPICAL SEASON A951f310
2019 TROPICAL SEASON 96e45f10
2019 TROPICAL SEASON 1f360910
2019 TROPICAL SEASON F587d210
2019 TROPICAL SEASON 88aed610


thats not by any chance ryan hannrahan from CT news is it? I went to high school with that guy (not fond of him, have a few choice words, not about him as a meterologist but as a person I grew up with briefly. If it is tell him jon manley says hi, see if he remembers me.
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Post by rb924119 Sat Jul 13, 2019 1:45 am

No, Jman haha but I know of whom you speak; I’ve seen some of his stuff floating around social media. That’s pretty cool that you went to school together!

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Post by billg315 Sat Jul 13, 2019 11:02 am

Barry hits minimal Cat One status at landfall. Not that it matters much as the rain will be the main factor here, not winds. 75 mph winds 993 mb.
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Post by billg315 Sat Jul 13, 2019 11:07 am

Not sure I’ve seen a tropical system where it’s so hard to pick out the center on radar/satellite; and where virtually all the precipitation is south of the center.
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Post by dkodgis Sat Jul 13, 2019 11:08 am

So the bad is yet to come?
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Post by rb924119 Sat Jul 13, 2019 3:06 pm

Could we be seeing a secondary circulation manifesting in response to the deeper convection offshore, as discussed above? Not entirely sure, but the below radar image might be trying to hint at that (annotation in red), and this seemingly matches recent satellite imagery.....time will tell. In general, though, I just find the evolution of this system very odd lol


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Post by rb924119 Sat Jul 13, 2019 3:10 pm

@billg315 wrote:Not sure I’ve seen a tropical system where it’s so hard to pick out the center on radar/satellite; and where virtually all the precipitation is south of the center.

I would almost be willing to argue that it hasn’t actually landfalled yet. But I agree with your sentiments of intrigue haha

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jul 14, 2019 9:19 pm

LR GFS has a hurricane into the big bend of FL then up the EC into PA as it rains itself out. Maybe we will be having something to watch but way to far out now.
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