2019 TROPICAL SEASON
Page 1 of 17
Page 1 of 17 • 1, 2, 3 ... 9 ... 17
2019 TROPICAL SEASON
Well there is the first code red. I have looked at zero details but its there.


_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS 35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
WINTER 2020/2021 SNOW TOTALS 7.25"(First snow Dec 16th/17th)
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"[/size]
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 6671
Reputation : 291
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON
40 mph winds and min pressure of 1007 mb. Drifting north but appears to soon be heading east OTS, likely missing Bermuda to the south on its current projection. Should weaken as it does so.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 3203
Reputation : 174
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 46
Location : Flemington, NJ
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 4407
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 43
Location : Point Pleasant Boro
Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON
If this 200mb map is correct then we will have to wait until at least July before we see anything develop of significance tropical wise. Warm colors = upper air convergence which leads to surface air divergence which = not conducive for trop development. Notice the trop Atlantic is bathed in the wwarm colors for the next two weeks..IF the forecast is correct. Weak El Nino likely a key player as to why.


_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS 35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
WINTER 2020/2021 SNOW TOTALS 7.25"(First snow Dec 16th/17th)
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"[/size]
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 6671
Reputation : 291
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 17260
Reputation : 103
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON
Euro has a Cat 1 into the border of LA and TX at 144 hours
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2102
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 32
Location : Brooklyn, NY
Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON
@jmanley32 wrote:This is a first and no its not a mistake, theres an area to watch over the central US moving to the GOM. 20% in the 5 day 0% in the 2 day.
Nice call jman. Came across this today. Offers a good explanation.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/look-out-gulf-coast-residents-you-may-be-hit-with-the-first-tropical-system-of-the-season/ar-AADZnq4?ocid=SK2HDHP
GreyBeard- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 512
Reputation : 33
Join date : 2014-02-12
Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON
Tis' the season. Been quiet on the Atlantic side thus far (not all that unusual for June-early July), so due to start popping a bit in the next few weeks as we approach the peak season.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 3203
Reputation : 174
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 46
Location : Flemington, NJ
Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON
Looks like the storm will be supercharged by the seasonably warm waters.
dkodgis- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 1373
Reputation : 97
Join date : 2013-12-29
Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON
It is progged to be a 85mph hurricane into louisiana but its moving so slowly I am very affraid of a repeat of a few years ago for 50 inches of rain.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 17260
Reputation : 103
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON
I think the wind impacts are minimal with this (for a hurricane) but those rain projections are horrific. And there is no place worse for 30-plus inches of rain than southeast Louisiana/New Orleans.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 3203
Reputation : 174
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 46
Location : Flemington, NJ
Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON
The Atlantic has to watch out moving forward. The waters are very warm.
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2102
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 32
Location : Brooklyn, NY
Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON
State of emergency now in Louisiana
dkodgis- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 1373
Reputation : 97
Join date : 2013-12-29
Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON
Tropical Storm Barry it is. 40 mph winds, 1006 mb pressure. Presently forecast to make it to Cat One by landfall with rain and flooding the major concerns.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 3203
Reputation : 174
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 46
Location : Flemington, NJ
Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON
@Snow88 wrote:The Atlantic has to watch out moving forward. The waters are very warm.
very very true..............
https://www.seatemperature.org/
Joe Snow- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 803
Reputation : 7
Join date : 2014-02-12
Age : 58
Location : Kings Park, NY
Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON
And I hope in two weeks, no storm hits Florida because I have to go there
dkodgis- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 1373
Reputation : 97
Join date : 2013-12-29
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 5171
Reputation : 189
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ
Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON
@rb924119 wrote:Not sure if there’s a separate discussion elsewhere, but just some food for thought on an otherwise boring day lol discussion is between myself (blue) and a met-friend of mine (white):
thats not by any chance ryan hannrahan from CT news is it? I went to high school with that guy (not fond of him, have a few choice words, not about him as a meterologist but as a person I grew up with briefly. If it is tell him jon manley says hi, see if he remembers me.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 17260
Reputation : 103
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON
No, Jman haha but I know of whom you speak; I’ve seen some of his stuff floating around social media. That’s pretty cool that you went to school together!
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 5171
Reputation : 189
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ
Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON
Barry hits minimal Cat One status at landfall. Not that it matters much as the rain will be the main factor here, not winds. 75 mph winds 993 mb.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 3203
Reputation : 174
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 46
Location : Flemington, NJ
Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON
Not sure I’ve seen a tropical system where it’s so hard to pick out the center on radar/satellite; and where virtually all the precipitation is south of the center.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 3203
Reputation : 174
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 46
Location : Flemington, NJ
Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON
So the bad is yet to come?
dkodgis- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 1373
Reputation : 97
Join date : 2013-12-29
Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON
Could we be seeing a secondary circulation manifesting in response to the deeper convection offshore, as discussed above? Not entirely sure, but the below radar image might be trying to hint at that (annotation in red), and this seemingly matches recent satellite imagery.....time will tell. In general, though, I just find the evolution of this system very odd lol
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 5171
Reputation : 189
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ
Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON
@billg315 wrote:Not sure I’ve seen a tropical system where it’s so hard to pick out the center on radar/satellite; and where virtually all the precipitation is south of the center.
I would almost be willing to argue that it hasn’t actually landfalled yet. But I agree with your sentiments of intrigue haha
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 5171
Reputation : 189
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ
Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON
LR GFS has a hurricane into the big bend of FL then up the EC into PA as it rains itself out. Maybe we will be having something to watch but way to far out now.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 17260
Reputation : 103
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY
Page 1 of 17 • 1, 2, 3 ... 9 ... 17
Page 1 of 17
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
|
|