Long Range Thread 19.0
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
Why is this in long range shouldn't there b3 a thread it's 4 days out.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
Thanks, Mugs.
dkodgis- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
Slowly the trough is trending sharper and more energy is coming out of the SW. not that far away at all to a nice little accumulation
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"
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aiannone- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
nice perfect timing for no school! Also looks like the coast is going to benefit on this one as long as warm air doesn't get in. Again this is 78 hrs out why is this in LR thread?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
Reminiscing of super bowel2014??
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
@amugs wrote:Reminiscing of super bowel2014??
I remember that! When that run of the Nam came in I was like holy Crap lol. That was such a great last minute surprise. I think I ended up wirh 10” from that
aiannone- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
00z GFS is about 4-6 areawide and CMC is 6+ for most Euro is not enthused bout the changeover, only a couple inches at most.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
So how does the comparison of the Euro looking like the CMC not treanslate the same at the surface? Euro has all rain mostly,whereas CMC has a warning level snow for most, I dunno what UKIE has. Are you leaning towards snow or rain? I know its going to initially be a rain storm monday/tuesday but then it looks to change but then I wonder after all that rain will it even be able to stick.@sroc4 wrote:Pretty easy to see that there are still MAJOR differences in the evolution at 500 between euro and GFS. NAM CMC Ukie all look much more like euro. On the Euro map below 6 hours faster to the Vort max digging in from the north located over the NW GL and you start to phase energy and a LP will pop.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
I plan to have a detailed write-up of our long range pattern and what we should expect near Christmas either today or tomorrow.
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
DECEMBER TO REMEMBER PEEPS
NEXT STORM BIGLY WISE - DEC 17TH - MY 50TH BDAY!!! CALLING IT.
A Mugzilla - whatever the heck that is but we're getting it!!
NEXT STORM BIGLY WISE - DEC 17TH - MY 50TH BDAY!!! CALLING IT.
A Mugzilla - whatever the heck that is but we're getting it!!
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
@amugs wrote:DECEMBER TO REMEMBER PEEPS
NEXT STORM BIGLY WISE - DEC 17TH - MY 50TH BDAY!!! CALLING IT.
A Mugzilla - whatever the heck that is but we're getting it!!
That calls for a party at Cornerstone or Finnegan's to track!
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Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
can't wait Frank@Frank_Wx wrote:I plan to have a detailed write-up of our long range pattern and what we should expect near Christmas either today or tomorrow.

weatherwatchermom- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
@amugs wrote:DECEMBER TO REMEMBER PEEPS
NEXT STORM BIGLY WISE - DEC 17TH - MY 50TH BDAY!!! CALLING IT.
A Mugzilla - whatever the heck that is but we're getting it!!
Hmm.

heehaw453- Posts : 1596
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
@heehaw453 wrote:@amugs wrote:DECEMBER TO REMEMBER PEEPS
NEXT STORM BIGLY WISE - DEC 17TH - MY 50TH BDAY!!! CALLING IT.
A Mugzilla - whatever the heck that is but we're getting it!!
Hmm.
Yes that's the next threat needs some work but doable. Linger range Xmas looks interesting
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
ITS COMNG!!!
We have an anti cyclone wave break in the North Atlantic to give us a N NAO and a 50/50.
We have an anti cyclone wave break in the North Atlantic to give us a N NAO and a 50/50.
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
So, when's it coming?
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
Next Tuesday 12/17 should be watched. How far north does the low come is the big question. Too far out to know for sure. But it's possible front end thump before any taint. If we get some help from Atlantic we may be in business.
heehaw453- Posts : 1596
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
This is what I am talking about

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Mugs
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
Their split

skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
The issue is the primary low's northward progression before it redevelops off coast. Euro has started taking it too far north past Pittsburgh and flooding mid levels with warm air. if we don't get some help from 50/50 low or quasi blocking, then it'll be mostly wet and not white. it's too early yet to know for sure IMO.
heehaw453- Posts : 1596
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
@heehaw453 wrote:
The issue is the primary low's northward progression before it redevelops off coast. Euro has started taking it too far north past Pittsburgh and flooding mid levels with warm air. if we don't get some help from 50/50 low or quasi blocking, then it'll be mostly wet and not white. it's too early yet to know for sure IMO.
A familiar problem and one we won't know the answer to until the weekend at the earliest.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
@amugs wrote:DECEMBER TO REMEMBER PEEPS
NEXT STORM BIGLY WISE - DEC 17TH - MY 50TH BDAY!!! CALLING IT.
A Mugzilla - whatever the heck that is but we're getting it!!
Is a Mugzilla a rain storm?
Big doubts about this one already.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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