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Long Range Thread 19.0

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Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 6 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

Post by rb924119 Sat Dec 07, 2019 2:59 pm

sabamfa wrote:
dkodgis wrote:May the ordinary Joe User guy (me) ask:

1) is it looking like snow next Wed?
2) is it looking like snow next weekend (13th-15th)?

We have a family member in the hospital and I may be the only one who has any interest in planning for weather around the daily trips back and forth.

I’d like to ask about these same days. Wednesday I have a huge catering event for 150 for the nonprofit I work for. So prep is done Tuesday with the event Wednesday. I’m moving next Saturday (Parsippany to Wayne).

I personally am not ready to comment definitively on either, but maybe somebody else has some further insight they can offer? Paging our resident experts! Lol

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Post by amugs Sat Dec 07, 2019 3:50 pm

sabamfa wrote:
dkodgis wrote:May the ordinary Joe User guy (me) ask:

1) is it looking like snow next Wed?
2) is it looking like snow next weekend (13th-15th)?



We have a family member in the hospital and I may be the only one who has any interest in planning for weather around the daily trips back and forth.

I’d like to ask about these same days. Wednesday I have a huge catering event for 150 for the nonprofit I work for. So prep is done Tuesday with the event Wednesday. I’m moving next Saturday (Parsippany to Wayne).

From Upton and it depends on where you are doing this event. Nothing is in being iron2d out yet. The models at 12Z show a much weaker evolution of this front for sbow but upton has this to say.

Somewhat complex scenario shaping up for early week as an
amplifying long wave trough develops over the lower 48. First, a
warm front riding up the coast, and accompanied by a shortwave
trough embedded in the deep layer SW flow E of the amplifying
longwave trough, should bring a round of moderate to locally
heavy rain on Mon. Think ECMWF is more correct than the GFS
with its axis of heavier rain falling more squarely over the
area rather than to the east, via enhanced lift beneath a
coupled low level convergence/upper level divergence couplet.
Wind forecast tricky as there will be both a strong LLJ present
and low level inversion to prevent stronger winds from reaching
the sfc except perhaps in heavier precip accompanying warm fropa
late day or early evening. Have mentioned slight chance thunder
mainly for the metro area and Long Island with models showing
some elevated instability and TT nearing 50.

Once we get into the warm sector, precip chances should diminish
going into overnight Mon night into Tue morning, then increase
with cold fropa Tue night. This second round of steady precip
will likely be anafrontal in nature given, lagging behind cold
fropa given the lagging mid level trough and anticyclonic upper
level jet streak approaching from the west. In this scenario,
precip should change to a period of snow from late Tue night
into Wed especially north/west, as colder air pours in,
especially north/west of NYC where a couple of inches
accumulation appears likely, and lesser amts toward the coast.
The slower/wetter ECMWF cold fropa suggests a possible worst
case of advy level snowfall inland, and maybe an inch or two for
NYC metro and the coast.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 07, 2019 7:03 pm

Why is this in long range shouldn't there b3 a thread it's 4 days out.
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Post by dkodgis Sat Dec 07, 2019 7:46 pm

Thanks, Mugs.
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Post by sroc4 Sat Dec 07, 2019 9:53 pm

Slowly the trough is trending sharper and more energy is coming out of the SW. not that far away at all to a nice little accumulation

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Post by sroc4 Sat Dec 07, 2019 10:00 pm

Pretty easy to see that there are still MAJOR differences in the evolution at 500 between euro and GFS. NAM CMC Ukie all look much more like euro.  On the Euro map below 6 hours faster to the Vort max digging in from the north located over the NW GL and you start to phase energy and a LP will pop.

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 6 5ac52210
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 6 00078110

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
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Post by aiannone Sat Dec 07, 2019 11:16 pm

0z GFS is nice Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 6 3d320810

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 07, 2019 11:20 pm

aiannone wrote:0z GFS is nice Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 6 3d320810
nice perfect timing for no school! Also looks like the coast is going to benefit on this one as long as warm air doesn't get in. Again this is 78 hrs out why is this in LR thread?
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Post by amugs Sat Dec 07, 2019 11:25 pm

Reminiscing of super bowel2014??

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Post by aiannone Sat Dec 07, 2019 11:36 pm

amugs wrote:Reminiscing of super bowel2014??

I remember that! When that run of the Nam came in I was like holy Crap lol. That was such a great last minute surprise. I think I ended up wirh 10” from that

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 07, 2019 11:38 pm

00z GFS is about 4-6 areawide and CMC is 6+ for most Euro is not enthused bout the changeover, only a couple inches at most.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 07, 2019 11:40 pm

sroc4 wrote:Pretty easy to see that there are still MAJOR differences in the evolution at 500 between euro and GFS. NAM CMC Ukie all look much more like euro.  On the Euro map below 6 hours faster to the Vort max digging in from the north located over the NW GL and you start to phase energy and a LP will pop.

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 6 5ac52210
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 6 00078110
So how does the comparison of the Euro looking like the CMC not treanslate the same at the surface? Euro has all rain mostly,whereas CMC has a warning level snow for most, I dunno what UKIE has. Are you leaning towards snow or rain? I know its going to initially be a rain storm monday/tuesday but then it looks to change but then I wonder after all that rain will it even be able to stick.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Dec 08, 2019 9:32 am

I plan to have a detailed write-up of our long range pattern and what we should expect near Christmas either today or tomorrow.

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Post by amugs Sun Dec 08, 2019 6:05 pm

DECEMBER TO REMEMBER PEEPS
NEXT STORM BIGLY WISE - DEC 17TH - MY 50TH BDAY!!! CALLING IT.
A Mugzilla - whatever the heck that is but we're getting it!!

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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Dec 08, 2019 6:07 pm

amugs wrote:DECEMBER TO REMEMBER PEEPS
NEXT STORM BIGLY WISE - DEC 17TH - MY 50TH BDAY!!! CALLING IT.
A Mugzilla - whatever the heck that is but we're getting it!!

That calls for a party at Cornerstone or Finnegan's to track!

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Post by amugs Sun Dec 08, 2019 7:36 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:
amugs wrote:DECEMBER TO REMEMBER PEEPS
NEXT STORM BIGLY WISE - DEC 17TH - MY 50TH BDAY!!! CALLING IT.
A Mugzilla - whatever the heck that is but we're getting it!!

That calls for a party at Cornerstone or Finnegan's to track!

That's right sista!!

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Dec 08, 2019 8:40 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:I plan to have a detailed write-up of our long range pattern and what we should expect near Christmas either today or tomorrow.
can't wait Frank Very Happy
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Post by heehaw453 Mon Dec 09, 2019 4:40 pm

amugs wrote:DECEMBER TO REMEMBER PEEPS
NEXT STORM BIGLY WISE - DEC 17TH - MY 50TH BDAY!!! CALLING IT.
A Mugzilla - whatever the heck that is but we're getting it!!

Hmm.  

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 6 Eurosn10

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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Dec 09, 2019 4:42 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
amugs wrote:DECEMBER TO REMEMBER PEEPS
NEXT STORM BIGLY WISE - DEC 17TH - MY 50TH BDAY!!! CALLING IT.
A Mugzilla - whatever the heck that is but we're getting it!!

Hmm.  

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 6 Eurosn10

Yes that's the next threat needs some work but doable. Linger range Xmas looks interesting
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Post by amugs Tue Dec 10, 2019 11:02 pm

ITS COMNG!!!
We have an anti cyclone wave break in the North Atlantic to give us a N NAO and a 50/50.

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Post by Irish Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:59 am

So, when's it coming?
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Post by heehaw453 Wed Dec 11, 2019 7:21 am

Next Tuesday 12/17 should be watched. How far north does the low come is the big question. Too far out to know for sure. But it's possible front end thump before any taint. If we get some help from Atlantic we may be in business.


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Post by amugs Wed Dec 11, 2019 9:40 am

This is what I am talking about
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 6 ELgr_Y7W4AskdZi?format=png&name=medium

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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Dec 11, 2019 10:42 am

Their splitLong Range Thread 19.0 - Page 6 Elgnej10
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Post by heehaw453 Wed Dec 11, 2019 10:47 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:Their splitLong Range Thread 19.0 - Page 6 Elgnej10


The issue is the primary low's northward progression before it redevelops off coast. Euro has started taking it too far north past Pittsburgh and flooding mid levels with warm air. if we don't get some help from 50/50 low or quasi blocking, then it'll be mostly wet and not white. it's too early yet to know for sure IMO.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Dec 11, 2019 11:05 am

heehaw453 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Their splitLong Range Thread 19.0 - Page 6 Elgnej10


The issue is the primary low's northward progression before it redevelops off coast.  Euro has started taking it too far north past Pittsburgh and flooding mid levels with warm air.  if we don't get some help from 50/50 low or quasi blocking, then it'll be mostly wet and not white.  it's too early yet to know for sure IMO.

A familiar problem and one we won't know the answer to until the weekend at the earliest.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Dec 11, 2019 11:14 am

amugs wrote:DECEMBER TO REMEMBER PEEPS
NEXT STORM BIGLY WISE - DEC 17TH - MY 50TH BDAY!!! CALLING IT.
A Mugzilla - whatever the heck that is but we're getting it!!

Is a Mugzilla a rain storm?

Big doubts about this one already.
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