Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

[rb924119]

Actually, I don’t think I have my dates right. When was that suppressed storm last year early in the season?

[rb924119]

It was December 8th—10th, so I’ll have to double check my earlier thoughts and make corrections later, if needed.

[amugs]

Ray on the woot woot train baby.
5hat was early Dec and they got hanner2e with an ice and historic snowstorm if ya'll (southern slang here) goootcha(get it)

[rb924119]

Ray on the woot woot train baby.
5hat was early Dec and they got hanner2e with an ice and historic snowstorm if ya'll (southern slang here) goootcha(get it)

Not quite yet, Mugsy, BUT my interest has been piqued for sure! Gotta wait until I can sit down later this weekend and really think on it a bit.

[rb924119]

Ray on the woot woot train baby.
5hat was early Dec and they got hanner2e with an ice and historic snowstorm if ya'll (southern slang here) goootcha(get it)

Not quite yet, Mugsy, BUT my interest has been piqued for sure! Gotta wait until I can sit down later this weekend and really think on it a bit.

IF it plays out like I think it CAN/MIGHT, it COULD be our first Godzilla+ on the season

[hyde345]

Ray on the woot woot train baby.
5hat was early Dec and they got hanner2e with an ice and historic snowstorm if ya'll (southern slang here) goootcha(get it)

Not quite yet, Mugsy, BUT my interest has been piqued for sure! Gotta wait until I can sit down later this weekend and really think on it a bit.

IF it plays out like I think it CAN/MIGHT, it COULD be our first Godzilla+ on the season

Actually second for some of us on this board.

[rb924119]

Ray on the woot woot train baby.
5hat was early Dec and they got hanner2e with an ice and historic snowstorm if ya'll (southern slang here) goootcha(get it)

Not quite yet, Mugsy, BUT my interest has been piqued for sure! Gotta wait until I can sit down later this weekend and really think on it a bit.

IF it plays out like I think it CAN/MIGHT, it COULD be our first Godzilla+ on the season

Actually second for some of us on this board.

You just HAD to go there, didn’t you?

[rb924119]

Fine, our first WIDESPREAD Godzilla+ lol

[amugs]

Ray on the woot woot train baby.
5hat was early Dec and they got hanner2e with an ice and historic snowstorm if ya'll (southern slang here) goootcha(get it)

Not quite yet, Mugsy, BUT my interest has been piqued for sure! Gotta wait until I can sit down later this weekend and really think on it a bit.

Still gun shy over last winter??
It's coming, low solae, Mike P and Math say so.

[dkodgis]

May the ordinary Joe User guy (me) ask:

1) is it looking like snow next Wed?
2) is it looking like snow next weekend (13th-15th)?

We have a family member in the hospital and I may be the only one who has any interest in planning for weather around the daily trips back and forth.

[rb924119]

Ray on the woot woot train baby.
5hat was early Dec and they got hanner2e with an ice and historic snowstorm if ya'll (southern slang here) goootcha(get it)

Not quite yet, Mugsy, BUT my interest has been piqued for sure! Gotta wait until I can sit down later this weekend and really think on it a bit.

Still gun shy over last winter??
It's coming, low solae, Mike P and Math say so.

No, just gunshy because I haven’t been able to do a full analysis, so I don’t want to make any definitive statements until I can do so, but do want to at least discuss which way I’m currently inclined to lean based on what I have looked at. But still subject to change lol you should know by now that if I’m excited about something (or not) I’ll preach until the end ahaha I’m just not able to.......yet lmao also the 9th-12th period is creeping up higher on my priority list as well. So I have two systems to look at lol wouldn’t want it any other way

[rb924119]

Not gonna lie, the NAM has me raising my eyebrows bigly for the first event (9th-12th). Dat H5 + jet evolution dohhh!!!

[SENJsnowman]

Bernie is pretty jazzed too, just based on what he's seeing in the Euro. He thinks the entire 95 corridor 'could' be in play for Tue-Wed...

https://www.pscp.tv/w/1nAJEZyzQogxL?t=7s&fbclid=IwAR3AJeMafXkJTTkLhDJ3fPKUlNfc_vXw6IGN6wbGfNmb8lfaKZctsx4RW68

[amugs]

We are in the game for this as per EURO ENS.
Itnis actually energy that is held back and then rounds the base of the trough and ride the front up the coast. Can it get juice?? Possibky but a nice 2-4" event would be a major surprise to many. A 1-3" we would take and run with.
1993-94 at up peeps that BAMWX and Inpostws was preaching about for DEC and JAN.

[rb924119]

At face value, I liked what the GFS did with BOTH systems of interest aloft, and really liked what I saw for the second one. The positive anomalies were starting to really be dragged back over the top of the phasing mid-levels. We just lacked the compression from the second northern stream piece. However, I think it made some strides in that department as well. Again, though, all at face value. I’m at work, so I can’t sit and study lol

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Ray on the woot woot train baby.
5hat was early Dec and they got hanner2e with an ice and historic snowstorm if ya'll (southern slang here) goootcha(get it)

Not quite yet, Mugsy, BUT my interest has been piqued for sure! Gotta wait until I can sit down later this weekend and really think on it a bit.

IF it plays out like I think it CAN/MIGHT, it COULD be our first Godzilla+ on the season

Actually second for some of us on this board.

Was just gonna chime in on that Hyde. Everyone always forgets the HV as if our storms never happen. It was pretty much a 10-15 inch event area wide here, 22.6 inches for Math up in Albany, and I believe that qualifies as a Godzilla.

I guess since Ray is in the snow hole of the HV, Fishkill, he may not have received his Godzilla yet.

[heehaw453]

I know Bernie has been saying to keep an eye out for Tuesday night/Wed.  I would say a few hours of white rain and that should do it.  Maybe well NW can accumulate and inch or two if temps crash fast enough.

This southern energy trails behind and the trough is too flat for much room for energy to sneak in as shown on the GFS.  Haven't seen much change in that quite honestly.


2M Temps Euro

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Fine, our first WIDESPREAD Godzilla+ lol

We appreciate the acknowledgement Ray

[sabamfa]

May the ordinary Joe User guy (me) ask:

1) is it looking like snow next Wed?
2) is it looking like snow next weekend (13th-15th)?

We have a family member in the hospital and I may be the only one who has any interest in planning for weather around the daily trips back and forth.

I’d like to ask about these same days. Wednesday I have a huge catering event for 150 for the nonprofit I work for. So prep is done Tuesday with the event Wednesday. I’m moving next Saturday (Parsippany to Wayne).

[jimv45]

Yep Cp I used to be in that snow hole, so Rb didn't get the Godzilla yet like some of us.

[skinsfan1177]

Weds threat has legs we track

[rb924119]

So does the one after it, skins

[aiannone]

CMC is very nice

[hyde345]

I know Bernie has been saying to keep an eye out for Tuesday night/Wed.  I would say a few hours of white rain and that should do it.  Maybe well NW can accumulate and inch or two if temps crash fast enough.

This southern energy trails behind and the trough is too flat for much room for energy to sneak in as shown on the GFS.  Haven't seen much change in that quite honestly.


2M Temps Euro

You are just looking at the GFS here which is flatter and more progressive. An accumulating event does have support from other models such as Euro, CMC, and Nam.

[heehaw453]

I know Bernie has been saying to keep an eye out for Tuesday night/Wed.  I would say a few hours of white rain and that should do it.  Maybe well NW can accumulate and inch or two if temps crash fast enough.

This southern energy trails behind and the trough is too flat for much room for energy to sneak in as shown on the GFS.  Haven't seen much change in that quite honestly.


2M Temps Euro

You are just looking at the GFS here which is flatter and more progressive. An accumulating event does have support from other models such as Euro, CMC, and Nam.

I wish I was just being narrow scoped on this threat and just looking at the GFS.  The trough is not a sharp one on any of the guidance I've looked at.  This leads me to believe energy will have a tough time to come around the base of the trough and form something meaningful.  

Just as important we are dealing with a very warm (in the 60s) antecedent air mass and surface temperatures are going to be an issue for any meaningful accumulation. The race between the precip shutoff and the crashing temperatures.  

Lastly, these type of setups along and S&E of 95 don't have a good history of producing something meaningful (greater than 1").  Seen this many times before where models show several inches and it winds up with a few hours of white rain.  Let's hope this is this falls in the outlier area and produces.  Certainly worth watching, but not expecting anything from it.

[rb924119]

May the ordinary Joe User guy (me) ask:

1) is it looking like snow next Wed?
2) is it looking like snow next weekend (13th-15th)?

We have a family member in the hospital and I may be the only one who has any interest in planning for weather around the daily trips back and forth.

I’d like to ask about these same days. Wednesday I have a huge catering event for 150 for the nonprofit I work for. So prep is done Tuesday with the event Wednesday. I’m moving next Saturday (Parsippany to Wayne).

I personally am not ready to comment definitively on either, but maybe somebody else has some further insight they can offer? Paging our resident experts! Lol

[amugs]

May the ordinary Joe User guy (me) ask:

1) is it looking like snow next Wed?
2) is it looking like snow next weekend (13th-15th)?



We have a family member in the hospital and I may be the only one who has any interest in planning for weather around the daily trips back and forth.

I’d like to ask about these same days. Wednesday I have a huge catering event for 150 for the nonprofit I work for. So prep is done Tuesday with the event Wednesday. I’m moving next Saturday (Parsippany to Wayne).

From Upton and it depends on where you are doing this event. Nothing is in being iron2d out yet. The models at 12Z show a much weaker evolution of this front for sbow but upton has this to say.

Somewhat complex scenario shaping up for early week as an
amplifying long wave trough develops over the lower 48. First, a
warm front riding up the coast, and accompanied by a shortwave
trough embedded in the deep layer SW flow E of the amplifying
longwave trough, should bring a round of moderate to locally
heavy rain on Mon. Think ECMWF is more correct than the GFS
with its axis of heavier rain falling more squarely over the
area rather than to the east, via enhanced lift beneath a
coupled low level convergence/upper level divergence couplet.
Wind forecast tricky as there will be both a strong LLJ present
and low level inversion to prevent stronger winds from reaching
the sfc except perhaps in heavier precip accompanying warm fropa
late day or early evening. Have mentioned slight chance thunder
mainly for the metro area and Long Island with models showing
some elevated instability and TT nearing 50.

Once we get into the warm sector, precip chances should diminish
going into overnight Mon night into Tue morning, then increase
with cold fropa Tue night. This second round of steady precip
will likely be anafrontal in nature given, lagging behind cold
fropa given the lagging mid level trough and anticyclonic upper
level jet streak approaching from the west. In this scenario,
precip should change to a period of snow from late Tue night
into Wed especially north/west, as colder air pours in,
especially north/west of NYC where a couple of inches
accumulation appears likely, and lesser amts toward the coast.
The slower/wetter ECMWF cold fropa suggests a possible worst
case of advy level snowfall inland, and maybe an inch or two for
NYC metro and the coast.

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