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Post by amugs on Fri Dec 06, 2019 6:06 pm

Ray on the woot woot train baby.
5hat was early Dec and they got hanner2e with an ice and historic snowstorm if ya'll (southern slang here) goootcha(get it)

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Post by rb924119 on Fri Dec 06, 2019 6:29 pm

@amugs wrote:Ray on the woot woot train baby.
5hat was early Dec and they got hanner2e with an ice and historic snowstorm if ya'll (southern slang here) goootcha(get it)

Not quite yet, Mugsy, BUT my interest has been piqued for sure! Gotta wait until I can sit down later this weekend and really think on it a bit.

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Post by rb924119 on Fri Dec 06, 2019 6:31 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@amugs wrote:Ray on the woot woot train baby.
5hat was early Dec and they got hanner2e with an ice and historic snowstorm if ya'll (southern slang here) goootcha(get it)

Not quite yet, Mugsy, BUT my interest has been piqued for sure! Gotta wait until I can sit down later this weekend and really think on it a bit.

IF it plays out like I think it CAN/MIGHT, it COULD be our first Godzilla+ on the season Wink

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Post by hyde345 on Fri Dec 06, 2019 6:42 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@amugs wrote:Ray on the woot woot train baby.
5hat was early Dec and they got hanner2e with an ice and historic snowstorm if ya'll (southern slang here) goootcha(get it)

Not quite yet, Mugsy, BUT my interest has been piqued for sure! Gotta wait until I can sit down later this weekend and really think on it a bit.

IF it plays out like I think it CAN/MIGHT, it COULD be our first Godzilla+ on the season Wink

Actually second for some of us on this board.
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Post by rb924119 on Fri Dec 06, 2019 6:55 pm

@hyde345 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@amugs wrote:Ray on the woot woot train baby.
5hat was early Dec and they got hanner2e with an ice and historic snowstorm if ya'll (southern slang here) goootcha(get it)

Not quite yet, Mugsy, BUT my interest has been piqued for sure! Gotta wait until I can sit down later this weekend and really think on it a bit.

IF it plays out like I think it CAN/MIGHT, it COULD be our first Godzilla+ on the season Wink

Actually second for some of us on this board.

You just HAD to go there, didn’t you? told ya

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Post by rb924119 on Fri Dec 06, 2019 6:56 pm

Fine, our first WIDESPREAD Godzilla+ lol

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Post by amugs on Fri Dec 06, 2019 7:57 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@amugs wrote:Ray on the woot woot train baby.
5hat was early Dec and they got hanner2e with an ice and historic snowstorm if ya'll (southern slang here) goootcha(get it)

Not quite yet, Mugsy, BUT my interest has been piqued for sure! Gotta wait until I can sit down later this weekend and really think on it a bit.
Still gun shy over last winter??
It's coming, low solae, Mike P and Math say so.

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Post by dkodgis on Fri Dec 06, 2019 8:20 pm

May the ordinary Joe User guy (me) ask:

1) is it looking like snow next Wed?
2) is it looking like snow next weekend (13th-15th)?

We have a family member in the hospital and I may be the only one who has any interest in planning for weather around the daily trips back and forth.
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Post by rb924119 on Fri Dec 06, 2019 9:19 pm

@amugs wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@amugs wrote:Ray on the woot woot train baby.
5hat was early Dec and they got hanner2e with an ice and historic snowstorm if ya'll (southern slang here) goootcha(get it)

Not quite yet, Mugsy, BUT my interest has been piqued for sure! Gotta wait until I can sit down later this weekend and really think on it a bit.
Still gun shy over last winter??
It's coming, low solae, Mike P and Math say so.

No, just gunshy because I haven’t been able to do a full analysis, so I don’t want to make any definitive statements until I can do so, but do want to at least discuss which way I’m currently inclined to lean based on what I have looked at. But still subject to change lol you should know by now that if I’m excited about something (or not) I’ll preach until the end ahaha I’m just not able to.......yet lmao also the 9th-12th period is creeping up higher on my priority list as well. So I have two systems to look at lol wouldn’t want it any other way Smile

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Post by rb924119 on Fri Dec 06, 2019 9:59 pm

Not gonna lie, the NAM has me raising my eyebrows bigly for the first event (9th-12th). Dat H5 + jet evolution dohhh!!!

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Post by SENJsnowman on Fri Dec 06, 2019 10:15 pm

Bernie is pretty jazzed too, just based on what he's seeing in the Euro. He thinks the entire 95 corridor 'could' be in play for Tue-Wed...

https://www.pscp.tv/w/1nAJEZyzQogxL?t=7s&fbclid=IwAR3AJeMafXkJTTkLhDJ3fPKUlNfc_vXw6IGN6wbGfNmb8lfaKZctsx4RW68

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Post by amugs on Fri Dec 06, 2019 11:24 pm

We are in the game for this as per EURO ENS.
Itnis actually energy that is held back and then rounds the base of the trough and ride the front up the coast. Can it get juice?? Possibky but a nice 2-4" event would be a major surprise to many. A 1-3" we would take and run with.
1993-94 at up peeps that BAMWX and Inpostws was preaching about for DEC and JAN.
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 5 Img_2014


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Post by rb924119 on Sat Dec 07, 2019 12:21 am

At face value, I liked what the GFS did with BOTH systems of interest aloft, and really liked what I saw for the second one. The positive anomalies were starting to really be dragged back over the top of the phasing mid-levels. We just lacked the compression from the second northern stream piece. However, I think it made some strides in that department as well. Again, though, all at face value. I’m at work, so I can’t sit and study lol

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sat Dec 07, 2019 8:50 am

@hyde345 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@amugs wrote:Ray on the woot woot train baby.
5hat was early Dec and they got hanner2e with an ice and historic snowstorm if ya'll (southern slang here) goootcha(get it)

Not quite yet, Mugsy, BUT my interest has been piqued for sure! Gotta wait until I can sit down later this weekend and really think on it a bit.

IF it plays out like I think it CAN/MIGHT, it COULD be our first Godzilla+ on the season Wink

Actually second for some of us on this board.

Was just gonna chime in on that Hyde. Everyone always forgets the HV as if our storms never happen. It was pretty much a 10-15 inch event area wide here, 22.6 inches for Math up in Albany, and I believe that qualifies as a Godzilla.

I guess since Ray is in the snow hole of the HV, Fishkill, he may not have received his Godzilla yet.
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Post by heehaw453 on Sat Dec 07, 2019 8:54 am

I know Bernie has been saying to keep an eye out for Tuesday night/Wed.  I would say a few hours of white rain and that should do it.  Maybe well NW can accumulate and inch or two if temps crash fast enough.

This southern energy trails behind and the trough is too flat for much room for energy to sneak in as shown on the GFS.  Haven't seen much change in that quite honestly.
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 5 Gfs12110

2M Temps Euro
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 5 Tempse11

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sat Dec 07, 2019 8:54 am

@rb924119 wrote:Fine, our first WIDESPREAD Godzilla+ lol

We appreciate the acknowledgement Ray Laughing Very Happy Thumbs up
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Post by sabamfa on Sat Dec 07, 2019 8:54 am

@dkodgis wrote:May the ordinary Joe User guy (me) ask:

1) is it looking like snow next Wed?
2) is it looking like snow next weekend (13th-15th)?

We have a family member in the hospital and I may be the only one who has any interest in planning for weather around the daily trips back and forth.

I’d like to ask about these same days. Wednesday I have a huge catering event for 150 for the nonprofit I work for. So prep is done Tuesday with the event Wednesday. I’m moving next Saturday (Parsippany to Wayne).

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Post by jimv45 on Sat Dec 07, 2019 10:11 am

Yep Cp I used to be in that snow hole, so Rb didn't get the Godzilla yet like some of us.

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Post by skinsfan1177 on Sat Dec 07, 2019 11:47 am

Weds threat has legs we trackLong Range Thread 19.0 - Page 5 5debd510
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 5 5debd511
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 5 Gem_as10
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Post by rb924119 on Sat Dec 07, 2019 12:15 pm

So does the one after it, skins Wink

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Post by aiannone on Sat Dec 07, 2019 12:31 pm

CMC is very nice
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Post by hyde345 on Sat Dec 07, 2019 1:20 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:I know Bernie has been saying to keep an eye out for Tuesday night/Wed.  I would say a few hours of white rain and that should do it.  Maybe well NW can accumulate and inch or two if temps crash fast enough.

This southern energy trails behind and the trough is too flat for much room for energy to sneak in as shown on the GFS.  Haven't seen much change in that quite honestly.
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 5 Gfs12110

2M Temps Euro
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 5 Tempse11

You are just looking at the GFS here which is flatter and more progressive. An accumulating event does have support from other models such as Euro, CMC, and Nam.
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Post by heehaw453 on Sat Dec 07, 2019 1:35 pm

@hyde345 wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:I know Bernie has been saying to keep an eye out for Tuesday night/Wed.  I would say a few hours of white rain and that should do it.  Maybe well NW can accumulate and inch or two if temps crash fast enough.

This southern energy trails behind and the trough is too flat for much room for energy to sneak in as shown on the GFS.  Haven't seen much change in that quite honestly.
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 5 Gfs12110

2M Temps Euro
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 5 Tempse11

You are just looking at the GFS here which is flatter and more progressive. An accumulating event does have support from other models such as Euro, CMC, and Nam.

I wish I was just being narrow scoped on this threat and just looking at the GFS.  The trough is not a sharp one on any of the guidance I've looked at.  This leads me to believe energy will have a tough time to come around the base of the trough and form something meaningful.  

Just as important we are dealing with a very warm (in the 60s) antecedent air mass and surface temperatures are going to be an issue for any meaningful accumulation. The race between the precip shutoff and the crashing temperatures.  

Lastly, these type of setups along and S&E of 95 don't have a good history of producing something meaningful (greater than 1").  Seen this many times before where models show several inches and it winds up with a few hours of white rain.  Let's hope this is this falls in the outlier area and produces.  Certainly worth watching, but not expecting anything from it.

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Post by rb924119 on Sat Dec 07, 2019 2:59 pm

@sabamfa wrote:
@dkodgis wrote:May the ordinary Joe User guy (me) ask:

1) is it looking like snow next Wed?
2) is it looking like snow next weekend (13th-15th)?

We have a family member in the hospital and I may be the only one who has any interest in planning for weather around the daily trips back and forth.

I’d like to ask about these same days. Wednesday I have a huge catering event for 150 for the nonprofit I work for. So prep is done Tuesday with the event Wednesday. I’m moving next Saturday (Parsippany to Wayne).

I personally am not ready to comment definitively on either, but maybe somebody else has some further insight they can offer? Paging our resident experts! Lol

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Post by amugs on Sat Dec 07, 2019 3:50 pm

@sabamfa wrote:
@dkodgis wrote:May the ordinary Joe User guy (me) ask:

1) is it looking like snow next Wed?
2) is it looking like snow next weekend (13th-15th)?



We have a family member in the hospital and I may be the only one who has any interest in planning for weather around the daily trips back and forth.

I’d like to ask about these same days. Wednesday I have a huge catering event for 150 for the nonprofit I work for. So prep is done Tuesday with the event Wednesday. I’m moving next Saturday (Parsippany to Wayne).

From Upton and it depends on where you are doing this event. Nothing is in being iron2d out yet. The models at 12Z show a much weaker evolution of this front for sbow but upton has this to say.

Somewhat complex scenario shaping up for early week as an
amplifying long wave trough develops over the lower 48. First, a
warm front riding up the coast, and accompanied by a shortwave
trough embedded in the deep layer SW flow E of the amplifying
longwave trough, should bring a round of moderate to locally
heavy rain on Mon. Think ECMWF is more correct than the GFS
with its axis of heavier rain falling more squarely over the
area rather than to the east, via enhanced lift beneath a
coupled low level convergence/upper level divergence couplet.
Wind forecast tricky as there will be both a strong LLJ present
and low level inversion to prevent stronger winds from reaching
the sfc except perhaps in heavier precip accompanying warm fropa
late day or early evening. Have mentioned slight chance thunder
mainly for the metro area and Long Island with models showing
some elevated instability and TT nearing 50.

Once we get into the warm sector, precip chances should diminish
going into overnight Mon night into Tue morning, then increase
with cold fropa Tue night. This second round of steady precip
will likely be anafrontal in nature given, lagging behind cold
fropa given the lagging mid level trough and anticyclonic upper
level jet streak approaching from the west. In this scenario,
precip should change to a period of snow from late Tue night
into Wed especially north/west, as colder air pours in,
especially north/west of NYC where a couple of inches
accumulation appears likely, and lesser amts toward the coast.
The slower/wetter ECMWF cold fropa suggests a possible worst
case of advy level snowfall inland, and maybe an inch or two for
NYC metro and the coast.

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