Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Their split

The issue is the primary low's northward progression before it redevelops off coast.  Euro has started taking it too far north past Pittsburgh and flooding mid levels with warm air.  if we don't get some help from 50/50 low or quasi blocking, then it'll be mostly wet and not white.  it's too early yet to know for sure IMO.

A familiar problem and one we won't know the answer to until the weekend at the earliest.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

DECEMBER TO REMEMBER PEEPS
NEXT STORM BIGLY WISE - DEC 17TH - MY 50TH BDAY!!! CALLING IT.
A Mugzilla - whatever the heck that is but we're getting it!!

Is a Mugzilla a rain storm?

Big doubts about this one already.

[hyde345]

12z GFS looked a little better but continues to track primary to Great lakes and with that upper levels warm. I'm not sure I'm buying that with the high and possible 50/50 low.

[jmanley32]

Yeah looks like a cutter let's hope for some help from the upper level players!

[amugs]

DECEMBER TO REMEMBER PEEPS
NEXT STORM BIGLY WISE - DEC 17TH - MY 50TH BDAY!!! CALLING IT.
A Mugzilla - whatever the heck that is but we're getting it!!

Is a Mugzilla a rain storm?

Big doubts about this one already.

Your riding the GFS I see

Stop the negative nanny wise guy look , positiveness or I'll have to move you to sector 14 of OTI!!!

[jmanley32]

Mugs aren't you a teacher too? Bigly? What in the world word is that lol. I'm having positivity for the next I have learned from the past 2 and will try my very hardest not to complain. If I do it'll be in banter. Goooo 17th!

[amugs]

If the EURO scenario comes to fruition then NNJ would crippled period.
Thank God I took down the 70' dead oak tree 2 weeks ago on my side property next to my house!
Good SST look here

[jmanley32]

Wow lr has coastal after coast on gfs wow 17th 23nd 26th 27th holy cow!!! Even if I get a inch per storm and it's like this till March I'll beat my total from last year lol. So far sit at about 2 inches.

[weatherwatchermom]

If the EURO scenario comes to fruition then NNJ would crippled period.
Thank God I took down the 70' dead oak tree 2 weeks ago on my side property next to my house!
Good SST look here

Mugs what are these charts

[sroc4]

If the EURO scenario comes to fruition then NNJ would crippled period.
Thank God I took down the 70' dead oak tree 2 weeks ago on my side property next to my house!
Good SST look here

Mugs what are these charts

Sea surface temp anomaly graphs in the tropical pacific.  Specifically in the regions that charachterize El Nino or La Nina.  Here is the visual of exactly where different Nino index graphs fall. ie: Nino3, Nino 4, etc

[jmanley32]

If the EURO scenario comes to fruition then NNJ would crippled period.
Thank God I took down the 70' dead oak tree 2 weeks ago on my side property next to my house!
Good SST look here

Mugs what are these charts

Sea surface temp anomaly graphs in the tropical pacific.  Specifically in the regions that charachterize El Nino or La Nina.  Here is the visual of exactly where different Nino index graphs fall.  ie: Nino3, Nino 4, etc

The Euro looks decent for 17th, gives entire area advisory level snow with the potential for a lot more. Lets track!

[jmanley32]

Wyatoo early to tell, and ice storms usually never materialize here but mugs is rigt verbatim the Euro gives most of NJ and lower westchester 0.25 to 0.5 frz!! 00z Euro from yesterdya is even more horrifying with over a ince of ice well up into the upper hudson vally to city all of NNJ, CT!!

[skinsfan1177]

I'm not enthused for the 17th threat polar vortex in central Canada screws it up. The timeframe after looks alot better

[sroc4]

I'm not enthused for the 17th threat polar vortex in central Canada screws it up. The timeframe after looks alot better

As modeled now. But it appears to have a negative AO, Neg NAO, and a transient POS PNa. We will have to see how this one evolves before writing it off. My ears are actually perked for this one.

[skinsfan1177]

I'm not enthused for the 17th threat polar vortex in central Canada screws it up. The timeframe after looks alot better

As modeled now. But it appears to have a negative AO, Neg NAO, and a transient POS PNa. We will have to see how this one evolves before writing it off. My ears are actually perked for this one.

The block is gone that's what models are showing. I would be concerned about ice in nnj and up that way CNJ and coast is toast. I like the look for a big snow event around the 22 timeframe

[heehaw453]

0Z Euro is showing a good front end thump (2-4") Trenton on north for the Monday night and Tuesday morning followed by big ice concerns.  The low slides south of us.  

Agree with Skins the better time frame is after 17th, but this type of setup would be disruptive.

[sroc4]

I'm not enthused for the 17th threat polar vortex in central Canada screws it up. The timeframe after looks alot better

As modeled now. But it appears to have a negative AO, Neg NAO, and a transient POS PNa. We will have to see how this one evolves before writing it off. My ears are actually perked for this one.

The block is gone that's what models are showing. I would be concerned about ice in nnj and up that way CNJ and coast is toast. I like the look for a big snow event around the 22 timeframe

Not sure if we are looking at the same thing Skins but here is what Im referring to.  


Currently the blocking is gone however, there is all sorts of energy headed our way for this weekend that will result in a very rainy forecast for the weekend.  Because there is no blocking it has no problem cutting and leaving us warm sectored.  




However, its this very same system that will head into the N atlantic, in the general vicinity of the 50/50 region, and "break off" the main flow; the result of which will lead to a ridge develop over Greenland(-NAO).  Concurrently there will be a ridge developing north of Alaska in the arctic domain(-AO), and as we approach the 17th-18th a +PNA ridge develops out in the western CONUS.  

Below are the European ensemble forecast graphs showing that as this weekends storm passes by around tthe 15th the teleconnections begin a reshuffling in there orientation.  The GFS ensembles are very similar in both timing and strength graphically.






Now graphs are fun to look at but what does it look like on the 500mb maps.  Here are both the GEFS and EPS 500mb anomaly maps with all the areas above outlined valid about 8pm Monday the 16th.  




You can see the areas discussed setting up resulting in high lat blocking in the AO and NAO domains which forces a lobe of the tropospheric polar vortex(TPV) to head south over the NA continent.  


Next two maps are once again the GEFS and EPS espectively, zoomed in a little but the vorticity maps.  As we then proceed into the 17th the -AO and -NAO cont to get better established, the TPV takes up residence in N Canada somewhere, and the PNA ridge is in pretty good position with its axis running through Nevada-ish.  






Also realize that we have energy coming out of our southern branch, as well as spokes of energy rotating around the TPV and diving into the N Central Plains via the N branch.  But the timing, strength and position of these areas has been changing model to model and run to run within a given model.  These are the important details that will ultimately determine if we see a system develop and if it does who see what.  Right now everything is on the table from nothing to all rain, to mix to snow but a storm is more than likely to threaten the area and IMHO at least some white will be seen even if wet eventually wins out.   

The important thing to note here is that this is a signal for an EC storm system.  A key point that is starting to come into focus is that the development of high lat blocking is very likely to happen combined with a transient PNA spike.  Regarding the energy coming out of the south and diving in from the north....the timing strength and position of said energy will not be realized until we head into the weekend at a minimum.   Subtle differences in positioning of some of the key 500mb players will have huge impacts on what happens in reality.   I can actually see a scenario develop where we get an over running event initially early on the 17th followed by a second system develop on the 18th if any energy lags behind.  There is still so much that can and likely will evolve in the modeling as we have seen time and time again at this lead time.   

I would not look past this threat, especially for the NW peeps, as the signal is there. Even the coast has a shot.  

Below is a GIF(I hope it works)  Follow the blue area in the SE CONUS.  Thats our rainy system for Sat/Sun.  Follow it up into the N Atlantic and watch is cut off and resultant ridge develop over Greenland at the end of the loop.  




Regarding the 22nd threat I 100% agree that this has some serious potential as well.  This set up involves a transitioning -NAO towards netural to pos.  Historically we have gotten some great storms from that scenario.

[amugs]

GFS caving to EURO with this system Monday - there is a block setting up and you need to see what happens with this system this Friday for how it affect this storm. Be patient and WE TRACK!!
CAD Signature here and the GFF has ALWAYS struggled in such set ups.

[amugs]

Great post Scott - sorry was doing my $2 post to you're $100 post. There a so many variable right now that have to play out that can swing this in a multitude of ways. BUT on thing is for sure is a that the week of Xmass has some very good potential for white not wet.

Map from a very good poster from the UK Zac on 33&Rain wx board

eez you don’t see that neat straight lines setup very often.



It’s interesting and one can certainly argue that it is a battle between the +EPO and the Pacific, which doesn’t shape up well for that medium term (but like I said earlier, it’s hard to say how the Aleutian low is sticking when the jet is forecast to retract and there is no +EAMT to back it up).



And the Atlantic which for the medium term looks pretty bloody good. Good for the UK, and good for the US East Coast. Particularly for those who want coastal snowfall.



Whether that holds for a short while or a long while, depends on how the Pacific pans out however. You can thank the -AAM for the chance to get that Eastern US troughing in this instance.



Anyway looks like the potential chances for East Coast snowfall ATM in terms of dates are:

18th-19th December
22nd-24th December

[amugs]

Anthony Masiello
@antmasiello
Deep Arctic Air will return to the rest of the CONUS when the West Pacific Warm Pool starts to reassert itself. Currently, the strong height gradient and zonal wave flux is preventing a more serious showing in the WPO/EPO domain. It can and will get much worse.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I'm not enthused for the 17th threat polar vortex in central Canada screws it up. The timeframe after looks alot better

As modeled now. But it appears to have a negative AO, Neg NAO, and a transient POS PNa. We will have to see how this one evolves before writing it off. My ears are actually perked for this one.

The block is gone that's what models are showing. I would be concerned about ice in nnj and up that way CNJ and coast is toast. I like the look for a big snow event around the 22 timeframe

Not sure if we are looking at the same thing Skins but here is what Im referring to.  


Currently the blocking is gone however, there is all sorts of energy headed our way for this weekend that will result in a very rainy forecast for the weekend.  Because there is no blocking it has no problem cutting and leaving us warm sectored.  




However, its this very same system that will head into the N atlantic, in the general vicinity of the 50/50 region, and "break off" the main flow; the result of which will lead to a ridge develop over Greenland(-NAO).  Concurrently there will be a ridge developing north of Alaska in the arctic domain(-AO), and as we approach the 17th-18th a +PNA ridge develops out in the western CONUS.  

Below are the European ensemble forecast graphs showing that as this weekends storm passes by around tthe 15th the teleconnections begin a reshuffling in there orientation.  The GFS ensembles are very similar in both timing and strength graphically.






Now graphs are fun to look at but what does it look like on the 500mb maps.  Here are both the GEFS and EPS 500mb anomaly maps with all the areas above outlined valid about 8pm Monday the 16th.  




You can see the areas discussed setting up resulting in high lat blocking in the AO and NAO domains which forces a lobe of the tropospheric polar vortex(TPV) to head south over the NA continent.  


Next two maps are once again the GEFS and EPS espectively, zoomed in a little but the vorticity maps.  As we then proceed into the 17th the -AO and -NAO cont to get better established, the TPV takes up residence in N Canada somewhere, and the PNA ridge is in pretty good position with its axis running through Nevada-ish.  






Also realize that we have energy coming out of our southern branch, as well as spokes of energy rotating around the TPV and diving into the N Central Plains via the N branch.  But the timing, strength and position of these areas has been changing model to model and run to run within a given model.  These are the important details that will ultimately determine if we see a system develop and if it does who see what.  Right now everything is on the table from nothing to all rain, to mix to snow but a storm is more than likely to threaten the area and IMHO at least some white will be seen even if wet eventually wins out.   

The important thing to note here is that this is a signal for an EC storm system.  A key point that is starting to come into focus is that the development of high lat blocking is very likely to happen combined with a transient PNA spike.  Regarding the energy coming out of the south and diving in from the north....the timing strength and position of said energy will not be realized until we head into the weekend at a minimum.   Subtle differences in positioning of some of the key 500mb players will have huge impacts on what happens in reality.   I can actually see a scenario develop where we get an over running event initially early on the 17th followed by a second system develop on the 18th if any energy lags behind.  There is still so much that can and likely will evolve in the modeling as we have seen time and time again at this lead time.   

I would not look past this threat, especially for the NW peeps, as the signal is there. Even the coast has a shot.  

Below is a GIF(I hope it works)  Follow the blue area in the SE CONUS.  Thats our rainy system for Sat/Sun.  Follow it up into the N Atlantic and watch is cut off and resultant ridge develop over Greenland at the end of the loop.  




Regarding the 22nd threat I 100% agree that this has some serious potential as well.  This set up involves a transitioning -NAO towards netural to pos.  Historically we have gotten some great storms from that scenario.

Fantastic write up Scott.

Facts, Figures, Diagrams and logic. Even the uneducated like myself can follow this.

I do hate the ice probabilities in these setups, but I'm hoping we can avoid that somehow. However if it means a front end 6 inches I'll take the ice but in a limited quantity.

[jmanley32]

Looks like a aweful lot of things have to go right for this to happen but it's nice to have things to track. The 22nd looks awesome posdibility.

[sroc4]

Looks like a aweful lot of things have to go right for this to happen but it's nice to have things to track. The 22nd looks awesome posdibility.

That's always the case Jman for it to work out for anyone who wants a specific outcome in a specific back yard. There is; however, a high probability of a snowstorm in the north east within this time frame given the set up. Its more a matter of where. Mother nature doesnt work on the tiny scales that we do when it comes to details. A matter of 200 miles north or south to a rain snow line means nothing to MN. Someone within the circled area will see a snowstorm of some type between the 16th-19th. Thats a guarantee.

[SENJsnowman]

Wow, reading these last few posts...what a great way to start the day! And SROC- that spinning wheel gif was perfect. Thanks for the great analysis everyone...time for some measure optimism for me! lol



"good for the US East Coast. Particularly for those who want coastal snowfall"

[mwilli]

will be looking 4 possibility of snowstorm 22-24...great write up on the long range

[jmanley32]

Looks like a aweful lot of things have to go right for this to happen but it's nice to have things to track. The 22nd looks awesome posdibility.

That's always the case Jman for it to work out for anyone who wants a specific outcome in a specific back yard. There is; however, a high probability of a snowstorm in the north east within this time frame given the set up.  Its more a matter of where.  Mother nature doesnt work on the tiny scales that we do when it comes to details.  A matter of 200 miles north or south to a rain snow line means nothing to MN.  Someone within the circled area will see a snowstorm of some type between the 16th-19th.  Thats a guarantee.

 

well at least we are in the circle lol. I know exactly what you mean was kinda reiterating the obvious I guess. I'm going to try not to worry bout imby but it's so hard once we reach sr. Long range I no longer sweat it.

[algae888]

Scott the biggest factor to look for in the next few days of modeling is the interaction between the polar vortex and the southern stream wave if they phase the storm probably Cuts as it will get too strong. Even though blocking starts to develop we're still in a pretty Progressive flow, we will have a weak high pressure of about 1025mb in a marginally cold air mass that will be moving East into the atlantic. unfavorable position. We need to be rooting for a weaker system and less interaction between the northern stream and Southern stream something that the euro has been showing. This will be the third system we're tracking the first 17 days of December really can't get any better than this.
Edit. The second most important feature is the strength of the 50/50 low (stronger the more confluence to our north) also something to focus on the next few days of modeling

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