Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

[jmanley32]

Looks like a aweful lot of things have to go right for this to happen but it's nice to have things to track. The 22nd looks awesome posdibility.

That's always the case Jman for it to work out for anyone who wants a specific outcome in a specific back yard. There is; however, a high probability of a snowstorm in the north east within this time frame given the set up.  Its more a matter of where.  Mother nature doesnt work on the tiny scales that we do when it comes to details.  A matter of 200 miles north or south to a rain snow line means nothing to MN.  Someone within the circled area will see a snowstorm of some type between the 16th-19th.  Thats a guarantee.

 

well at least we are in the circle lol. I know exactly what you mean was kinda reiterating the obvious I guess. I'm going to try not to worry bout imby but it's so hard once we reach sr. Long range I no longer sweat it.

[algae888]

Scott the biggest factor to look for in the next few days of modeling is the interaction between the polar vortex and the southern stream wave if they phase the storm probably Cuts as it will get too strong. Even though blocking starts to develop we're still in a pretty Progressive flow, we will have a weak high pressure of about 1025mb in a marginally cold air mass that will be moving East into the atlantic. unfavorable position. We need to be rooting for a weaker system and less interaction between the northern stream and Southern stream something that the euro has been showing. This will be the third system we're tracking the first 17 days of December really can't get any better than this.
Edit. The second most important feature is the strength of the 50/50 low (stronger the more confluence to our north) also something to focus on the next few days of modeling

[algae888]

The first set of guidance today the icon shows more interaction between the polar vortex and Southern stream wave which leads to an app's Runner. Verbatim front-end snow to rain. For comparison last nights icon was much flatter and went South of us an all snow event although Light 2 to 4 in. let's see what the other guidence shows today

[DAYBLAZER]

Overnight, the NWS upped me from 1-3 inches on Monday Night (the 16th) to 5-8 inches this morning. They must be seeing something. I guess the EURO?

I know it's way early but I still think it's interesting.

[algae888]

The GFS is a no-go it has been very consistent with the interaction between the northern stream and Southern stream although trending weaker however the 50/50 low also trended weaker and moved out quicker
Edit. The GFS actually looks very similar to the icon few inches of snow turning quickly to rain

[sroc4]

Scott the biggest factor to look for in the next few days of modeling is the interaction between the polar vortex and the southern stream wave if they phase the storm probably Cuts as it will get too strong. Even though blocking starts to develop we're still in a pretty Progressive flow, we will have a weak high pressure of about 1025mb in a marginally cold air mass that will be moving East into the atlantic. unfavorable position. We need to be rooting for a weaker system and less interaction between the northern stream and Southern stream something that the euro has been showing. This will be the third system we're tracking the first 17 days of December really can't get any better than this.
Edit. The second most important feature is the strength of the 50/50 low (stronger the more confluence to our north) also something to focus on the next few days of modeling

lol Al as I was reading along I was thinking to myself "1025mb as is currently modeled, but how does the confluence evolve in the modeling?" Then bam I read your edit. The stronger the confluence the stronger the HP. There are still so many things that can adjust relative to the way its being depicted. This is certainly one key aspect that needs to be monitored. Like you said the fact that its as active as it is is fantastic.

[heehaw453]

To algae point the GFS wants the two streams to interact more and then the storm gets pulled to our NW.  It then redevelops off the NE coast.

Actually i could see this getting more suppressed as we move on in time based on trending -NAO and 50/50 low shown in pictures.  I have a feeling this is going to be more frozen than what GFS currently shows.

[jmanley32]

Nice explanations guys here's hoping we get a boom. It is amazing we are tracking so much in early mid Dec. I don't remember last time lol. If this is an indication of future then one is bound to give my area the goods. No snow left in yonkers a bit left in white plains. After all it is mugs birthday!! Let's just hope it doesn't end up being a massive frz scenario like euro been showing.

[jmanley32]

To algae point the GFS wants the two streams to interact more and then the storm gets pulled to our NW.  It then redevelops off the NE coast.

Actually i could see this getting more suppressed as we move on in time based on trending -NAO and 50/50 low shown in pictures.  I have a feeling this is going to be more frozen than what GFS currently shows.  

I nominate heehaw to be boosted to advanced forecaster he is quite good!

[amugs]

The GFS is a no-go it has been very consistent with the interaction between the northern stream and Southern stream although trending weaker however the 50/50 low also trended weaker and moved out quicker
Edit. The GFS actually looks very similar to the icon few inches of snow turning quickly to rain

It has and still underplays the CAD signature - the source region is very cold and though a weak HP if it strengthens by a few MB's that low level cold air will win out.
Again, we have to see what this system does Friday and how strong or deep it gets for its affects on the 50/50 block and the NAO block.
A 100 mile variation and strength as Scott has pointed out will have big downstream affects.
Right now with EURO has not budged as the GFS has moved into the snow to ice to rain whereas the Euro has stayed snow , major crippling ice storm to rain.
The mid levels 925, 700 are where the truth will be told - ala 93-94 winter but that was about 75 miles more south of I 80.

[sroc4]

So far the euro is vastly and I mean VASTLY diff at 500 with several really important features. Look at the PNA region, look at the ridging into greenland. Look at the energy orientation along the NE. Look at the TPV orientation, look at the southern energy, look at the piece of energy breaking off the TPV located just west of the Husdon bay on the euro vs located almost to the Candaian CONUS boarder. Both images are valid for the same time frame.

[devsman]

No one see the xmas eve eve eve storm brewing?

[hyde345]

Lets not forget the GFS is a POS and has been awful. I wouldn't trust it ever beyond 48 hours. Its the only model that has the primary that strong and cutting into Great Lakes. It is not recognizing the blocking that will develop IMO. The Euro and CMC have the right idea. This doesn't mean though that the NYC metro and coast will not change over to rain eventually, they will, but there could be a period of snow/sleet even for the coast. N and W will be in the best spot again and I think a period of snow(2-4) will change to sleet and ZR which could be an issue. A lot of time and a lot of things to iron out but I don't believe the GooFuS for a second.

[skinsfan1177]

No one see the xmas eve eve eve storm brewing?

yes thatstheone

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

To algae point the GFS wants the two streams to interact more and then the storm gets pulled to our NW.  It then redevelops off the NE coast.

Actually i could see this getting more suppressed as we move on in time based on trending -NAO and 50/50 low shown in pictures.  I have a feeling this is going to be more frozen than what GFS currently shows.  

I nominate heehaw to be boosted to advanced forecaster he is quite good!

I'll second that. Great insights, along with Scott, Mugs and Al, they are the Fab Four.

[amugs]

Hee haw has my vote. Great addition to the family here.

[amugs]

Well, here comes the fun!! A massive Greenland block by both the GEFS and EPS  showing up. There is A LOT of support by the anti cyclonic wave break that will be taking place in the North  Atlantic. This WILL come to fruition. There is also a Karents Sea extension and if this like is up then WATCH OUT. Bitter cold and snow possibilities run rampant. Ae have a deep N in the Gulf of Alaska with a great PNA spike. Lots of potential here.

[amugs]

Peeps icon which was good with the last storm recognzing the cold air intrusion faster than other models says this, Wuro still holds onto the crippling ice storm idea for areas 20 miles from the coast. Dont take verbatim as snow but wintry wx. This is gonna be one headache of a call

[amugs]

4th run in a row by EURO on this solution - absolutely crippling situation again if this were to occur to NNJ and LHV and NEPA

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

4th run in a row by EURO on this solution - absolutely crippling situation again if this were to occur to NNJ and LHV and NEPA

The only winter precip I'll say no thank you to, I'll take plain rain rather than that crap.

[docstox12]

Sorry, CP, here is where I part ways with you.I hate all slop storms, give me pure snow or pure rain.As Sinatra sang "All or nothing at all"!
Looks like slop headed our way for Mon and Tues.UGH

[heehaw453]

To algae point the GFS wants the two streams to interact more and then the storm gets pulled to our NW.  It then redevelops off the NE coast.

Actually i could see this getting more suppressed as we move on in time based on trending -NAO and 50/50 low shown in pictures.  I have a feeling this is going to be more frozen than what GFS currently shows.  

I nominate heehaw to be boosted to advanced forecaster he is quite good!

I'll second that. Great insights, along with Scott, Mugs and Al, they are the Fab Four.

thanks!

[heehaw453]

Models continue to show a weak storm that will probably track too close to use for all snow.  More like a SWFE WAA (south west flow event/warm air advection).  My guess is some kind of front end snow with change over to ice and then possibly rain.  The ice on Euro remains the most significant threat.  

I would love to see a few inches out of this, but really starting to doubt much more than that unless that track changes.

[dkodgis]

I think Emperor Palpatine is behind it all.

I used to work in northern Westchester county and the ride home at night on the goat trail around Bear Mountain and then down the Long Mountain road was at times very intense due to an unexpected snow storm which was doable with four snow tires and a clutch. When it was 10 out and a squall would come for 5 min and freeze on the ground into a veneer of ice, or the slop came and there was ice-man, that was bracing stuff.  I am done with all that and when I get a chance to leave it and not take it, I leave it.  It was like getting my Merit badge later in life. Now it is up on the shelf.

If what I understand for next Tues is so, the front end is where the ice might be and by Tues morning, rain.  Maybe it will quickly unslop things. However, it seems we are due for an ice storm.  We have not had one is so long. I mean a serious event.  Later or sooner, it will be our turn.

[docstox12]

I think Emperor Palpatine is behind it all.

I used to work in northern Westchester county and the ride home at night on the goat trail around Bear Mountain and then down the Long Mountain road was at times very intense due to an unexpected snow storm which was doable with four snow tires and a clutch. When it was 10 out and a squall would come for 5 min and freeze on the ground into a veneer of ice, or the slop came and there was ice-man, that was bracing stuff.  I am done with all that and when I get a chance to leave it and not take it, I leave it.  It was like getting my Merit badge later in life. Now it is up on the shelf.

If what I understand for next Tues is so, the front end is where the ice might be and by Tues morning, rain.  Maybe it will quickly unslop things. However, it seems we are due for an ice storm.  We have not had one is so long. I mean a serious event.  Later or sooner, it will be our turn.

Damian,
That goat trail Route 6 is a white knuckle ride under good conditions.No way I would be on it in the snow.A buddies wife who is an x ray tech near West Point was stuck up on Route 6 for hours in last November's snowstorm.Took her 9 hours from West point to Monroe.A nightmare.

[heehaw453]

Rain storm today/tomorrow will produce more rain on western side with trough tilt like this.  Don't buy the western edge.

[Grselig]

Sorry, CP, here is where I part ways with you.I hate all slop storms, give me pure snow or pure rain.As Sinatra sang "All or nothing at all"!
Looks like slop headed our way for Mon and Tues.UGH

Don't mind rain. Love the snow. Ice and slop ("mixed bag") is not worth it. Monday looks like a mess.

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