Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

[weatherwatchermom]

Great short video on the upcoming winter

thanks mugs...hope it works out this year!!

[Math23x7]

The MJO forecast from the ECMWF as of today:

[amugs]

Joe D from WxBell

[amugs]

A great winter outlook read by a very good LR forecaster Griteater!! What I am pumped about and I have harped on this for a long time now is the solar equation inputted into his forecast which only a few have done. Will be a big player and why?? It is pegged to induce blocking in the arctic as it did in the Antarctic region this past winter in Southern Hemisphere ala Aussie land and NZ. If you paid attention it was a record breaking winter for them in terms of cold n snow. As it was in SA.
https://twitter.com/griteater/status/1193504771375861760?s=19

[Frank_Wx]

The MJO wave outlined a few days ago will continue progressing through the western Pacific. Our weather this week will already feel some effects of the anomalous ridging with an arctic blast followed by a weaker blast of cold this weekend.

Next week our weather will moderate a bit to seasonal or slightly milder than normal, but it's possible the pattern is re-loading for another winter blast near Thanksgiving into the last few days of November. An intense trough is poised to develop over the Aleutians this weekend. That will set the stage for possible ridging across the EPO/PNA domains with some models even showing a -NAO developing later this month.

In sum not much to look forward to the next 10 days but the time after that could make things exciting again.

[amugs]

After a Normal regime period with 2 possible Nor's (Nor'easters) before this reloads with a N NAO

Courtesy of Ventrice



Courtesy of Cohen

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

11/4/19 0Z ECMWF OP hr 99; 11/7/19 10 PM EST, NY State.



Interesting....

Just catching up on the last 6 months.

Mike from Albany? This should make for some interesting observations. I was just in Lenox Mass last weekend, a mere stones throw from your new residence. Are you in the city of Albany or one of the surrounding towns. What is the elevation where you are?

[amugs]

GEFS showing the goods here for a NAO block around Turkey week

https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1194677859949957121?s=20

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Hasn’t it been like eight years since we’ve had a sustained negative NAO in December? The timing would be great. Nothing like a good stormy wintry pattern for Turkey week to get into the holiday mood.

[amugs]

There is a quasi semi permanent pattern setting up at the 500mb level that looks to have been setting up since Halloween as we saw the ENS pushing, well the GEFS. Some may say what but if you look at the past 3 weeks now we are seeing this pattern evolve. Can you get a warm up absolutely, a torch not likely IMO. The SE ridge has been taking a beating with the coastal storms and cold air/fronts having an upwelling/cooling effect.
Maps did not show up so here are these Steady Decline






There is a correlation from what Joe D at Wxbell is working on between the SH (Southern Hemisphere)Polar Vortex variations to the NH Polar Vortex variations and displacements. We have see two such perturbations, one we are coming out of, if this were a month or 7 weeks from now with this air mass was be crying it would be so cold, anyway we have so many factors in our favor:

+ Indian Ocean Dipole which is to cause a Postive EAMT - East Asian mountain torque whi h is to attack the PV, ripple the jet and pac jet and help.pump the EPO Negative

Modoki Weak El Nino which should help force the MJO into the favorable phases 8,1,2 and force the upward motion in the dateline region. Tjis will help promote the EPO and the ridge on the west coast thus a positive PNA.
This will also help the STJ sub tropical jet to be active and feed our storms
Coldw aters off SA continent and warmers as yuo reach teh dateline region at 180*


Volcanic Activity tjis has been very active and we have had 9 VEI 3 volcanic explosions and 2 VEI 4/5 explosions. These have occurred over the last 9 months thus spew vast amounts of aerosols, dust, particles into the stratosphere  hence the gorgeous dusk twilight skies of purples and pinks from the arctic to the tropics s. That is a direct result of these eruptions.

The very cold thermosphere, coldest since NASA has been keeping records. It affects remains to be seen 2009 was the last time it was this low.
Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 3.80x1010 W Cold
Max: 49.4x1010 W Hot (10/1957)
Min: 2.05x1010 W Cold (02/2009)

Warm blob in the NE PAC means a vortwx will form and strengthen this winter thus promoting a N EPO which will drive cold air into the Eastern  and Central Regions of USA.


Warmish Atlantic overall to help fuel our storms.


Low solar, helps promote a N NAO as the QBO winds re dws ending into the N phase.
Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 2 days
2019 total: 238 days (75%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)

Low sea ice in the Barents Sea region that will help promote a N AO and NAO at times
.
Lastly the tremendous snow extent over the NH is off the charts which will have an albedo effect and will is forming a feedback cycle as we are seeing and the extent of the snow should cover bast majorities of NA by the end of the month with some regions having feet of snow coverage. This will help our cold air source region for air not to modify but actually cool down as it makes its trek to us over this snowpack terrain.


And by the end of the month this will grow and deepen




I really like what we are seeing in form of the variables for this winter

[amugs]

Here comes the block over the top - Scandinavian Block - all hail the Norsemen. This then transfer or comes into Greenland and look at the trough in the East and the Ridge over British Columbia - very good synoptic set up here.
Compliments of Superstorm from 33&rain site
Mean look

[Math23x7]

Just catching up on the last 6 months.

Mike from Albany? This should make for some interesting observations. I was just in Lenox Mass last weekend, a mere stones throw from your new residence. Are you in the city of Albany or one of the surrounding towns. What is the elevation where you are?

Hi CP. Yes, I am in the Albany region now. More specifically though, I am in Colonie and at 300 feet for elevation. Areas a few miles to my west as well as areas about a mile across the Hudson are much higher elevation wise. So there will be instances where it is raining where I live but snowing in those areas.

Now, while Albany does have typically do better snow wise than NYC, I am concerned about the I-95 crushers that'll screw me over. Albany has been keeping weather records since 1884. In the 135 snow seasons, only 9 times has NYC out-snowed Albany. Three of those nine though happened in the past 15 years: 2005-06, 2009-10, and 2015-16. 2005-06 had the February 11-12, 2006 Roidzilla for I-95. 2009-10 had virtually everything suppressed. 2015-16 had the January 23, 2016 snow event which gave 27.5" to NYC but 0" for Albany.

Last Tuesday, I had my first accumulations. It was actually freezing rain for a couple of hours before changing over to a coating of snow by daybreak. Since I drive to work 6 miles away, the struggle was scraping the ice off the car. Since I never really had to drive much in the snow in NYC (I took public transportation to work beforehand), it was something to be picked up on.

Anyway, this being the long range thread, it does look like the next couple of weeks look to be on the cold side overall. It wouldn't shock me if this ends up becoming the coldest November in decades around these parts.

[Frank_Wx]

Thanks for posting updates Mugs. Beginning next week through the end of the month there looks to be multiple chances for our first accumulating snow. The MJO wave I've talked about in my last few posts is now crossing the Dateline, leading me to believe some of the warmer than normal SSTA's along the equatorial Pacific is causing enough instability to keep these waves long-lived. This in part is due to the Nino-like conditions.

The result looks like a very anomalous ridge off the west coast. We need to watch if that ridge axis is still too far west. That would risk storms tracking along the coast rather than off the coast. However, the -NAO blocking Mugs posted could help suppress some of that. The models are going back and forth on the strength of the -NAO but it does seem likely we'll see a ridge pressing down from Greenland.

[hyde345]

Just catching up on the last 6 months.

Mike from Albany? This should make for some interesting observations. I was just in Lenox Mass last weekend, a mere stones throw from your new residence. Are you in the city of Albany or one of the surrounding towns. What is the elevation where you are?

Hi CP.  Yes, I am in the Albany region now.  More specifically though, I am in Colonie and at 300 feet for elevation.  Areas a few miles to my west as well as areas about a mile across the Hudson are much higher elevation wise.  So there will be instances where it is raining where I live but snowing in those areas.  

Now, while Albany does have typically do better snow wise than NYC, I am concerned about the I-95 crushers that'll screw me over.  Albany has been keeping weather records since 1884.  In the 135 snow seasons, only 9 times has NYC out-snowed Albany.  Three of those nine though happened in the past 15 years: 2005-06, 2009-10, and 2015-16.   2005-06 had the February 11-12, 2006 Roidzilla for I-95.  2009-10 had virtually everything suppressed.  2015-16 had the January 23, 2016 snow event which gave 27.5" to NYC but 0" for Albany.  

Last Tuesday, I had my first accumulations.  It was actually freezing rain for a couple of hours before changing over to a coating of snow by daybreak.  Since I drive to work 6 miles away, the struggle was scraping the ice off the car.  Since I never really had to drive much in the snow in NYC (I took public transportation to work beforehand), it was something to be picked up on.

Anyway, this being the long range thread, it does look like the next couple of weeks look to be on the cold side overall. It wouldn't shock me if this ends up becoming the coldest November in decades around these parts.

You will get your share of snow this season trust me. Hopefully you will be hearing the term "mohawk convergence"  plenty this year. The difference in weather between the city and where you are is night and day, especially in winter.

[sroc4]

Thanks for posting updates Mugs. Beginning next week through the end of the month there looks to be multiple chances for our first accumulating snow. The MJO wave I've talked about in my last few posts is now crossing the Dateline, leading me to believe some of the warmer than normal SSTA's along the equatorial Pacific is causing enough instability to keep these waves long-lived. This in part is due to the Nino-like conditions.

The result looks like a very anomalous ridge off the west coast. We need to watch if that ridge axis is still too far west. That would risk storms tracking along the coast rather than off the coast. However, the -NAO blocking Mugs posted could help suppress some of that. The models are going back and forth on the strength of the -NAO but it does seem likely we'll see a ridge pressing down from Greenland.

Im just not as excited as many seem to be at the prospect of a sustained west based -NAO, at least not over the next few weeks.  It may set up more consistently later but I just cant get excited about it now.   Perhaps its because the elusive sustained winter season west based -NAO (aka the unicorn) just hasn't existed very much despite tales of its prospective arrival over the past few years.  

That said I like the prospects of the split flow setting up for the end of the week.  ULL in the SW ejecting energy in the southern branch, with northern branch energy digging into the GL and NE.  Of course timing is everything but there is a shot at some accumulating snow out of it.  Model chaos will def be the theme early on in the week until they can get a handle on the details of the timing strength, etc of he energy ejecting out of the SW and diving in from Canada.  Still some pretty significant differences along the EC as well as out west 4days out.  This is euro and GFS valid Wed 18z this week.  

[sroc4]

Even more differences at 500 for 2 days later valid 18z friday. Again model mayhem is very commin in a split flow pattern. Dont trust any solns

[skinsfan1177]

We need to see the -nao actually materialize as time moves on and in the ops runs too not just the ensembles

[sroc4]

I just want to throw this out there. I know there is chatter about this negative NAO in the modeling; however, I would temper any expectations about a cold snowy pattern developing heading into late Nov and into December. While things are certainly subject to change, the current strat forecasts have it strengthening a bit but more importantly shifting its center over to the Asian side of the N Hemisphere and a strat ridge building over western NA. This configuration is not overly conducive for cold air to dig and stay.

I will try and put together a more detailed discussion about my thoughts on the up coming pattern using maps etc from the 500mb level to the strat at a later date. Again things may change but my intital thoughts are just ehh for whats to come over the next month or so.

[HectorO]

The only consistent pattern is going into December every year hopeful, just to find out that we must wait until January now.

[heehaw453]

LOL. How true. But in all honestly looking at the EPS, GEFS, etc. is an exercise in futility for longer range. Trying to predict the EPO, NAO, PNA, MJO, etc. beyond 10 days and you will get whiplash with how dramatically the solutions change as you go from outside 10 days to inside 10 days.

We just have to see how things unfold, but recent Decembers have been governed by Pacific side of things and it's been bad for snow lovers (zonal fire hose). I have very modest expectations, and we shall see if the pattern can be more favorable this year as I'd love a good snowy December this year.

[amugs]

I beg to differ and give some positiveness to this talk here. You have a tremendous heat tranfer conduit from Africa and Asia into Arctic that pump the heights and produce block over the top.
You have a N NAO setting up as I write that may have an influence to this weekends and next weeks storm. A sigma 2 -2.5 block is forming which means a somewhat moderate block.
Will it be cold bouts yes, but it will hold the SE ridge at bay, suppress it.
MJO going into phases

Here's the look from the GEFS



Time will tell but lots of latent heat flowing up to Greenland.
Also, we have been bombarded sin e last spring with cosmic Ray's which produced a large geomagnetic affects and cloud nucleization (formation). This along with low solar has a huge propensity to form blocking in the arctic regions aka NAO, AO and EPO.

[sroc4]

unfort mugs Im just not seeing that way. There is a resistance in the air and I dont like it..at least through the first half of Dec.

[sroc4]

CRAP!!! Al just inadvertently deleted your post. Sorry man. I was trying to quote you and respond, but I apparently clicked on edit. The I was going to delete my post and write it differently and apparently I was deleting your post.

[algae888]

Scott I should also add that the mjo looks like it's going to miss the warm phases as it's heading towards the c o d and looks to re-emerging the cold phases will see if this is accurate as guidance usually has trouble with it

[algae888]

CRAP!!! Al  just inadvertently deleted your post.  Sorry man.  I was trying to quote you and respond, but I apparently clicked on edit.  The I was going to delete my post and write it differently and apparently I was deleting your post.  

No problem scott basically will have a negative Nao for the next 10 days or so and then a negative EPO after that if long-range guidance is correct should be a tight gradient somewhere in the east going west to east Northside cold Southside hot active pattern those are my thoughts

[sroc4]

I hear what your saying Al.  And I certainly want to be clear that chances for snow will of course be there.  The problem is however its just not a great set up for sustained cold and snow.  My guess is that through Dec10-14th temps will avg near normal to slt above normal with very little in the way of real snow that ends up on the ground.  Again not to say the chances wont be there, but in the end these potentials will fizzle out and end up more wet than white.  At least for the majority.   The problem I see is on the Pac side and the strat.  

The strat is forecast to shift to the other side of the N hemisphere for a bit.  Whenever that happens it typically offers resistance in the troposphere for the 500mb to hit and hold with the polar/arctic air dep into the Eastern CONUS.  




Here are the image for the strat vortex mean positioning for the month of Nov through the 18th, the resultant 500mb mean trough ridge orientation, and the mean 2m temps as a result.  You can clearly see the correlation.  







The other part is the MJO wave.  It originally had it crashing into the COD after this phase 8 propagation and recirculate back into favorable phases; however, if you have been watching the trends this MJO wave continues into less favorable phases and slows.  





Looking at the means in the EPS and GEFS ensembles respectively you can see there is a fundamental difference in the depiction of where the mean trough ridge axis will be in the longer range again specifically what is related to the Pac side of things.  Notice the axis of the mean ridge trough axis between the two.  





Unfortunatly for now I just dont agree with the GEFS depiction of what we are seeing headed into Dec. because it doesn't agree with the the forcing mechanisms coming out of the Pac and what the strat is attempting to do ATT.  Like you said in the post I accidently deleted IF this aspect of the modeling is correct.  Time will tell and I hope Im wrong but its how I see it now.  This -NAO that is happening may end up all for not, or perhaps be just enough to offer up a few "chances" that may even come to fruition, but again the overall big picture to me doesnt look ready.

[Frank_Wx]

I get a cold sweat when I look at the long range models and doc's post above. It reminds me of last season where we had all this cold air but could not capitalize on any snow events. There is little doubt at this point the beginning of December, after the 2nd, is looking quite cold. Here is a look at the EPS Mean valid week of December 3rd-8th.



As doc alluded the ridge is displaced too far west so the pattern for us would feature something like cold, cutter, cold. A cutter, as you know, is a storm that 'cuts' or tracks well inland flooding us with mild temps.

Now...our hope is the -NAO. If this feature stays relevant one week from now then there is a chance it prevents a cutter and actually forms some type of coastal / miller-B system. December 2nd-3rd is the time frame to watch. And if that does not work out we have another shot near the 6th-8th.

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