Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

[nutleyblizzard]

AO looks to crash in the long range. Cold & stormy if it comes to fruition. Hope it's not another head fake.

[Dunnzoo]

Sorry for lack of posts lately. Personal life became busy and also our winter weather pattern is abysmal. After taking a glance at things today I remain pessimistic. The EPS shows a SE ridge in place from February 10th-20th. You just know this pattern will break in time when we are all ready for spring. At that point, I don't see the point of snow if its going to be of the wet kind when you are battling sun angle and surface temps.

Its been a horrific winter. I do not see an end in sight.

so depressing....I try to be a half glass full type of gal..but really need to have an empty glass to survive this horrible snowless winter the last 2 years...side note joined a snow lovers group on FB..I get to live vicariously thru the pictures of others..

Joanne, follow Reed Timmer on FB and Twitter. Since he moved to Colorado, he has been chasing snow storms as well as tornadoes!

[heehaw453]

Some of the models are hinting at snow on or before Valentines Day.  I urge you to be skeptical of such a solution ATTM.

The bottom line is the ridging on the EPS is much higher up the Eastern US and allows for a southerly flow to warm the column.  The GEFS would help to suppress the wave and keep the baroclinic zone favorable for us by keeping the flow more north easterly. Difference is Euro would cut and GFS would allow for a much better chance at something.

fwiw.  The GEPS (Canadian Ensembles) is backing up the GFS ensembles and even more aggressive with the suppression.

What has occurred more often than not this year is what I would ask myself.  Really take everything else out of the equation.

[skinsfan1177]

Some of the models are hinting at snow on or before Valentines Day.  I urge you to be skeptical of such a solution ATTM.

The bottom line is the ridging on the EPS is much higher up the Eastern US and allows for a southerly flow to warm the column.  The GEFS would help to suppress the wave and keep the baroclinic zone favorable for us by keeping the flow more north easterly. Difference is Euro would cut and GFS would allow for a much better chance at something.

fwiw.  The GEPS (Canadian Ensembles) is backing up the GFS ensembles and even more aggressive with the suppression.

What has occurred more often than not this year is what I would ask myself.  Really take everything else out of the equation.

I'm definitely skeptical what phase is the MJO look to be in at this time

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

GEFS have had a long term cold bias all winter and then warm up the closer we get. I'd expect the same again. Until the pattern actually changes I wouldn't expect anything different than we've had all winter.

Since Dec 22 it's been just a horrific pattern. One of the worst ever seen. The only places in the northeast cashing in this year are upstate NY and NNE. Mikes done okay in Albany with 38 inches so far but that's right about their normal for this point in the season.

I'm getting to the point where I wonder why I bother to look each day.

[Grselig]

GEFS have had a long term cold bias all winter and then warm up the closer we get. I'd expect the same again. Until the pattern actually changes I wouldn't expect anything different than we've had all winter.

Since Dec 22 it's been just a horrific pattern. One of the worst ever seen. The only places in the northeast cashing in this year are upstate NY and NNE. Mikes done okay in Albany with 38 inches so far but that's right about their normal for this point in the season.

I'm getting to the point where I wonder why I bother to look each day.

I don't know either. Looking for a little hope, although in the end, its nothing. I guess what's winter (or philosophically, life) without a little hope)

[heehaw453]

GEFS have had a long term cold bias all winter and then warm up the closer we get. I'd expect the same again. Until the pattern actually changes I wouldn't expect anything different than we've had all winter.

Since Dec 22 it's been just a horrific pattern. One of the worst ever seen. The only places in the northeast cashing in this year are upstate NY and NNE. Mikes done okay in Albany with 38 inches so far but that's right about their normal for this point in the season.

I'm getting to the point where I wonder why I bother to look each day.

I don't know either.  Looking for a little hope, although in the end, its nothing.    I guess what's winter (or philosophically, life) without a little hope)

Me three guys.  Been a rough one.  GFS continues to advertise snow on 2/13 but I believe it'll correct itself in the next 24-36 hours What I'll be looking for is how is deals with the ridge in east coast. Most likely it'll continue to pump the ridge up on the east coast to a point where it's in Quebec.  I am expecting precipitation just not the kind we want. I've never wanted to be wrong so bad...

[billg315]

At this point pretty much giving up on any sustained pattern change to bring us multiple snow chances. Nothing looks appetizing the next two weeks. Final week of Feb. and March still remains but while that time frame delivered two years ago I don’t hold out much hope. So I’m shifting to hoping for that one perfectly timed system that sneaks in between two warm stretches and gives us one good major snowstorm before the flowers come up. Period of March 1-18 is usually a prime candidate for that type of “surprise.”

[dkodgis]

I’m hoping for something before July 4. I think that’s showing patience and restraint.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I’m hoping for something before July 4. I think that’s showing patience and restraint.

I always holdout hope until May 10. That's the latest I've seen accumulating snow in this area (May 10, 1977, NYC had a trace, while higher elevations of the HV had over two feet ) and I'm hoping one day to see it again.

Watch for a major pattern change around April 1, followed by a couple of slop storms the first couple weeks of April where we'll all be calculating how much snow we would have had if it was 2-3 weeks earlier.

[dkodgis]

It is snowing here. Pleasant flurrying activity. I guess it is true what they say: the grass is greener over the septic tank. The rest gets a slight coating

[heehaw453]

As of 12Z today all guidance has a storm for 2/13.

Most guidance has the low sliding underneath us.  Euro is taking the low through Buffalo with that pumped up ridge into Quebec.  This will interesting to see in the next 2 days.

[heehaw453]

You can see the GFS and other guidance starting to pump the ridge a bit higher on east coast allowing for the  southerly flow.  Consequently warmer and more wet solutions. Euro I think is a bit too aggressive with respect to the ridging as it still takes the low through Buffalo and blasts the ridge past Quebec City, CA.  

Nah. Split the difference I think between the two and take the low a bit west of us and have the ridging 200-300 miles south/east of where Euro has it. There's not much risk in me saying a wet solution for most in this pattern, but believe that to be the case for 2/13.  Maybe NW folks can catch a break, but doubt it.

In regards to beyond that the Euro Ensembles still looking tough to produce.  -EPO/+NAO/+AO and huge Atlantic ridge.  At the end (D10) though the silver lining looked to be a more neutral slightly negative AO.  If that's true then maybe open the blinds back up after 2/18 or so.  The hostility and consistency of this pattern is unreal.  I'm not at all going to be surprised to see this continue quite honestly until it's too late.

Silver lining?

[jmanley32]

You can see the GFS and other guidance starting to pump the ridge a bit higher on east coast allowing for the  southerly flow.  Consequently warmer and more wet solutions. Euro I think is a bit too aggressive with respect to the ridging as it still takes the low through Buffalo and blasts the ridge past Quebec City, CA.  

Nah. Split the difference I think between the two and take the low a bit west of us and have the ridging 200-300 miles south/east of where Euro has it. There's not much risk in me saying a wet solution for most in this pattern, but believe that to be the case for 2/13.  Maybe NW folks can catch a break, but doubt it.

In regards to beyond that the Euro Ensembles still looking tough to produce.  -EPO/+NAO/+AO and huge Atlantic ridge.  At the end (D10) though the silver lining looked to be a more neutral slightly negative AO.  If that's true then maybe open the blinds back up after 2/18 or so.  The hostility and consistency of this pattern is unreal.  I'm not at all going to be surprised to see this continue quite honestly until it's too late.

Silver lining?

Is that warmth I see? Yes that wpuld be fine with me and lets keep it that way, lets chalk this up to the record worst winter ever that I can remember knotching a huge 4 inches for the season.  Thats gotta be a all time record low no? Stats guys my area ever see less than that?

[heehaw453]

You can see the GFS and other guidance starting to pump the ridge a bit higher on east coast allowing for the  southerly flow.  Consequently warmer and more wet solutions. Euro I think is a bit too aggressive with respect to the ridging as it still takes the low through Buffalo and blasts the ridge past Quebec City, CA.  

Nah. Split the difference I think between the two and take the low a bit west of us and have the ridging 200-300 miles south/east of where Euro has it. There's not much risk in me saying a wet solution for most in this pattern, but believe that to be the case for 2/13.  Maybe NW folks can catch a break, but doubt it.

In regards to beyond that the Euro Ensembles still looking tough to produce.  -EPO/+NAO/+AO and huge Atlantic ridge.  At the end (D10) though the silver lining looked to be a more neutral slightly negative AO.  If that's true then maybe open the blinds back up after 2/18 or so.  The hostility and consistency of this pattern is unreal.  I'm not at all going to be surprised to see this continue quite honestly until it's too late.

Silver lining?

Is that warmth I see? Yes that wpuld be fine with me and lets keep it that way, lets chalk this up to the record worst winter ever that I can remember knotching a huge 4 inches for the season.  Thats gotta be a all time record low no? Stats guys my area ever see less than that?

That's incredible wrt 4". I know NYC < 5" too and would be interested to know what Jersey shore folks are at. I'm at 9" and I think some how some way I'll get at least another inch for double digit snowfall before it's over. I certainly haven't experienced single digit since I've been here.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

You can see the GFS and other guidance starting to pump the ridge a bit higher on east coast allowing for the  southerly flow.  Consequently warmer and more wet solutions. Euro I think is a bit too aggressive with respect to the ridging as it still takes the low through Buffalo and blasts the ridge past Quebec City, CA.  

Nah. Split the difference I think between the two and take the low a bit west of us and have the ridging 200-300 miles south/east of where Euro has it. There's not much risk in me saying a wet solution for most in this pattern, but believe that to be the case for 2/13.  Maybe NW folks can catch a break, but doubt it.

In regards to beyond that the Euro Ensembles still looking tough to produce.  -EPO/+NAO/+AO and huge Atlantic ridge.  At the end (D10) though the silver lining looked to be a more neutral slightly negative AO.  If that's true then maybe open the blinds back up after 2/18 or so.  The hostility and consistency of this pattern is unreal.  I'm not at all going to be surprised to see this continue quite honestly until it's too late.

Silver lining?

Is that warmth I see? Yes that wpuld be fine with me and lets keep it that way, lets chalk this up to the record worst winter ever that I can remember knotching a huge 4 inches for the season.  Thats gotta be a all time record low no? Stats guys my area ever see less than that?

You're closest official reporting station is Central Park Jman which currently sits at 4.8 inches for the season. The lowest seasonal ever in NYC is 2.8 inches in 1972/73 and that's in 151 years of record keeping.

There has only been 9 times in 151 years that NYC has had less than 10 inches of snow in a season. Wth the current pattern as it is this may be the 10th time.

[nutleyblizzard]

You can see the GFS and other guidance starting to pump the ridge a bit higher on east coast allowing for the  southerly flow.  Consequently warmer and more wet solutions. Euro I think is a bit too aggressive with respect to the ridging as it still takes the low through Buffalo and blasts the ridge past Quebec City, CA.  

Nah. Split the difference I think between the two and take the low a bit west of us and have the ridging 200-300 miles south/east of where Euro has it. There's not much risk in me saying a wet solution for most in this pattern, but believe that to be the case for 2/13.  Maybe NW folks can catch a break, but doubt it.

In regards to beyond that the Euro Ensembles still looking tough to produce.  -EPO/+NAO/+AO and huge Atlantic ridge.  At the end (D10) though the silver lining looked to be a more neutral slightly negative AO.  If that's true then maybe open the blinds back up after 2/18 or so.  The hostility and consistency of this pattern is unreal.  I'm not at all going to be surprised to see this continue quite honestly until it's too late.

Silver lining?

Is that warmth I see? Yes that wpuld be fine with me and lets keep it that way, lets chalk this up to the record worst winter ever that I can remember knotching a huge 4 inches for the season.  Thats gotta be a all time record low no? Stats guys my area ever see less than that?

You're closest official reporting station is Central Park Jman which currently sits at 4.8 inches for the season. The lowest seasonal ever in NYC is 2.8 inches in 1972/73 and that's in 151 years of record keeping.

There has only been 9 times in 151 years that NYC has had less than 10 inches of snow in a season. Wth the current pattern as it is this may be the 10th time.

Wow. If it's going to be bad it might as well be historic.

[weatherwatchermom]

You can see the GFS and other guidance starting to pump the ridge a bit higher on east coast allowing for the  southerly flow.  Consequently warmer and more wet solutions. Euro I think is a bit too aggressive with respect to the ridging as it still takes the low through Buffalo and blasts the ridge past Quebec City, CA.  

Nah. Split the difference I think between the two and take the low a bit west of us and have the ridging 200-300 miles south/east of where Euro has it. There's not much risk in me saying a wet solution for most in this pattern, but believe that to be the case for 2/13.  Maybe NW folks can catch a break, but doubt it.

In regards to beyond that the Euro Ensembles still looking tough to produce.  -EPO/+NAO/+AO and huge Atlantic ridge.  At the end (D10) though the silver lining looked to be a more neutral slightly negative AO.  If that's true then maybe open the blinds back up after 2/18 or so.  The hostility and consistency of this pattern is unreal.  I'm not at all going to be surprised to see this continue quite honestly until it's too late.

Silver lining?

Is that warmth I see? Yes that wpuld be fine with me and lets keep it that way, lets chalk this up to the record worst winter ever that I can remember knotching a huge 4 inches for the season.  Thats gotta be a all time record low no? Stats guys my area ever see less than that?

You're closest official reporting station is Central Park Jman which currently sits at 4.8 inches for the season. The lowest seasonal ever in NYC is 2.8 inches in 1972/73 and that's in 151 years of record keeping.

There has only been 9 times in 151 years that NYC has had less than 10 inches of snow in a season. Wth the current pattern as it is this may be the 10th time.

knew you would have the answer current season in my neck of the woods is 2.5 inches...last year a measly 11....not a good trend.

[sroc4]

You can see the GFS and other guidance starting to pump the ridge a bit higher on east coast allowing for the  southerly flow.  Consequently warmer and more wet solutions. Euro I think is a bit too aggressive with respect to the ridging as it still takes the low through Buffalo and blasts the ridge past Quebec City, CA.  

Nah. Split the difference I think between the two and take the low a bit west of us and have the ridging 200-300 miles south/east of where Euro has it. There's not much risk in me saying a wet solution for most in this pattern, but believe that to be the case for 2/13.  Maybe NW folks can catch a break, but doubt it.

In regards to beyond that the Euro Ensembles still looking tough to produce.  -EPO/+NAO/+AO and huge Atlantic ridge.  At the end (D10) though the silver lining looked to be a more neutral slightly negative AO.  If that's true then maybe open the blinds back up after 2/18 or so.  The hostility and consistency of this pattern is unreal.  I'm not at all going to be surprised to see this continue quite honestly until it's too late.

Silver lining?

Great analysis as usual. Not much to add here except I’m sure you meant “+EPO”. And not negative. A negative EPO might give us a chance.

[SENJsnowman]

Hee Haw: I'm in just south of Toms River a quarter of the way down the Shore at exit 80. I think I've spotted an official 1" one time this year and prob a 1/2" on two other occasions. Maybe 2" altogether?

Last year, we had maybe three or four 'storms' of 1" or more, and I think of two them hit the 2-2.5" mark. Like this year, none of them have had real snowstorm potential. One or two of them hit the 2" mark and showed some real 3-4" upside at the time, but they then peetered immediately, as if to say "Psyyyche!" right in my face.    I'd estimate last year's total at 6-8". (Seems like the good ole days! )

So,  my 2 year running total is 8-10 inches of snow. That's a tough thing to say.

I think DocS you nailed it back in December (you cats up in the LHV are kind of sage in these matters): "Until this pattern breaks, nothing else matters"  

Legitimate reason for optimism...many of us are now on the positive of 'Mean Reversion'. lol!  2020-21: Snowing to the Coast!!!

[heehaw453]

You can see the GFS and other guidance starting to pump the ridge a bit higher on east coast allowing for the  southerly flow.  Consequently warmer and more wet solutions. Euro I think is a bit too aggressive with respect to the ridging as it still takes the low through Buffalo and blasts the ridge past Quebec City, CA.  

Nah. Split the difference I think between the two and take the low a bit west of us and have the ridging 200-300 miles south/east of where Euro has it. There's not much risk in me saying a wet solution for most in this pattern, but believe that to be the case for 2/13.  Maybe NW folks can catch a break, but doubt it.

In regards to beyond that the Euro Ensembles still looking tough to produce.  -EPO/+NAO/+AO and huge Atlantic ridge.  At the end (D10) though the silver lining looked to be a more neutral slightly negative AO.  If that's true then maybe open the blinds back up after 2/18 or so.  The hostility and consistency of this pattern is unreal.  I'm not at all going to be surprised to see this continue quite honestly until it's too late.

Silver lining?

Great analysis as usual. Not much to add here except I’m sure you meant “+EPO”. And not negative.   A negative EPO might give us a chance.

Yes. I edited that typo. There’s not a ridge in Alaska for as far as the eye can see!

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

GFS 12Z snow map for Thursday. It's been so off with it's cold bias in medium and long term I don't give this much credence, even for northern areas but I'll watch as always because what else is there.

[jmanley32]

GFS 12Z snow map for Thursday. It's been so off with it's cold bias in medium and long term I don't give this much credence, even for northern areas but I'll watch as always because what else is there.

Doing more important things? LOL This cannot possibly be the only thing you are interested in. I haver lost all hope. I never throw in the towel till we warm up for good but it looks like nothing is going to happen.  LR GFS has rain storm after rainstorm.

[heehaw453]

GFS 12Z snow map for Thursday. It's been so off with it's cold bias in medium and long term I don't give this much credence, even for northern areas but I'll watch as always because what else is there.

The guidance continues to show the huge ridge on east coast more and more like what the Euro is showing unfortunately.  Today's 12Z GEM was extremely similar to the last Euro op run.  The GFS is correcting to that too IMO and will be much closer to that in the next couple of runs.  It's a bit stubborn, but it'll get there.  This cuts IMO somewhere between Buffalo and Binghamton then slides east.  That causes south westerly flow out ahead of it with no cold depth to the antecedent air mass. That'll make it difficult to get any accumulations outside of at least CNE and Upstate NY.  Wow that is getting a bit redundant as i type this.

GEM 12Z  Not quite as aggressive as the Euro, but awfully close.

[dkodgis]

We could all use a typeitin prg. Just click for save phrases because everything is staying the same

[heehaw453]

Come on stubborn GFS!  Inside of 4 days and I'm rooting for you (shows general 3-5").  Shows a bit of a less aggressive east coast ridge on 18Z.  That's really the difference here is how aggressive it gets with the ridging.

I'll hug this one as 0Z it'll most likely be quite different.

[Grselig]

Come on stubborn GFS!  Inside of 4 days and I'm rooting for you (shows general 3-5").  Shows a bit of a less aggressive east coast ridge on 18Z.  That's really the difference here is how aggressive it gets with the ridging.

I'll hug this one as 0Z it'll most likely be quite different.

We are counting on you Mr. Haw. It’s your opportunity to save winter. You can do it!

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