Re: December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Dec 02, 2019 11:34 am

dsix85 wrote:Does this shut down earlier now bc the onset of precipitation starting earlier than anticipated ?

Yes a little bit. Should end for west/northwest sections between 10-11pm and 2-3am for coast

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Dec 02, 2019 11:37 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Final call snow map - includes today's snowfall as well

Look for light to moderate snow/sleet/freezing rain to begin between 11am-1pm today from southwest to northeast. From CNJ to NE NJ and NYC, expect the wintry precip to changeover to rain around 3-4pm, maybe a little earlier. Areas in a mix (N&W of NYC) may see minor snow accumulations, but for the most part, will be in a mix with dangerous icing developing this evening. Please avoid roads if possible.

The summary for today is little to no snow accumulations and if they do happen it will be N&W of NYC, maybe 1-3".

The overnight hours things get interesting. The secondary low is poised to develop off the coast of NJ but staying very close to the coast, well inside the 40/70 BM. CNJ, NYC and LI could be in a dry slot overnight into the morning hours with either light rain or no precip falling. N&W will continue seeing a mix - even into the overnight hours - but will notice it slowly changing to all snow by the morning. This is where the secondary low takes hold and has snow falling over the area almost all day. Mix/rain line will gradually shifts south-southeast throughout the day. For NYC, that changeover may not happen until 4-5pm. Any precip before then should be mainly rain, which is why accumulations for immediate NYC are cut down. Mid-level centers are on top of us during the day, so 850mb temps are mild stretching from NJ shore to LI into CT.

The CCB that develops - it will develop - will drop additional snowfall over a localized region. Where I have the yellow circle there is the possibility of additional snow, maybe as much as 6" in some spots. Worse conditions will be from 4pm-12am with moderate to heavy snow falling.

Snow will come to an end between 4-5am on Tuesday.

Have fun tracking everyone!!

As for this map I still feel ok about it although I wish I expanded the yellow circle further south to encompass more of CNJ and East to include more of LI. I think the 4-8 can be expanded slightly S&E, and the 2-4 replaces the 1-3 across LI. Keep in mind we’re still uncertain about where the area of subsidence develops that will drastically cut down snow accumulations for some people. Also, these bands could “snow” themselves out at some point after the secondary stalls as the trough tries to go negative a bit.

by **billg315** Mon Dec 02, 2019 11:40 am

Views from a heavier band coming through my area:

December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations - Page 13 C12cd710

December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations - Page 13 Fb52bd10

by **jmanley32** Mon Dec 02, 2019 11:43 am

Blitzing now and we are staying, hopefully the roads do not get too bad too soon. NO MUGS NO REPEAT OF NOV 2018!!!

by **hyde345** Mon Dec 02, 2019 11:44 am

32 and light snow. Measured 4.5 inches so far.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Dec 02, 2019 11:44 am

Surface temps above freezing for many but with winds finally out of the N-NW, snow growth, and improved rates we should overcome them.

by **heehaw453** Mon Dec 02, 2019 11:45 am

The surface low is getting tugged a bit towards the coast in response to the ULL crossing the coast. I feel the bands will pivot back west a bit. How strong they get and how long they last is a big question.

December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations - Page 13 Surfac13

Frontogenesis in purple contours is indicative of lift which should produce some banding.

December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations - Page 13 Fronto10

by **heehaw453** Mon Dec 02, 2019 11:52 am

billg315 wrote:Views from a heavier band coming through my area:

Nice Pics!

by **billg315** Mon Dec 02, 2019 11:52 am

Frank_Wx wrote:

Surface temps above freezing for many but with winds finally out of the N-NW, snow growth, and improved rates we should overcome them.

I’ve got 34* here but with this heavier band it is now sticking to all untreated/less traveled paved surfaces.

by DAYBLAZER Mon Dec 02, 2019 11:54 am

29* here in Hopatcong NJ in southern sussex county. All roads covered, snowing heavily. About 2 inches so far.

by **Sanchize06** Mon Dec 02, 2019 11:55 am

Very heavy snow here in Northern Monmouth, quite the band

by **frank 638** Mon Dec 02, 2019 11:56 am

Finally switched over to plain snow Hatton starting to stick on cars

by **essexcountypete** Mon Dec 02, 2019 11:59 am

36 in Bloomfield, snowing moderate to heavy, sticking to paved surfaces.

by **heehaw453** Mon Dec 02, 2019 12:07 pm

It looks to me we aren't seeing more expansive precip further west due to trough tilt of 500 MB. As it goes neutral it will swing back more precip. But that is what models were picking up on for several days back. GFS had this same depiction several days back.

December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations - Page 13 500mb11

by **amugs** Mon Dec 02, 2019 12:08 pm

December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations - Page 13 EKy9OEgX0AY3-x0?format=png&name=small

GFS ENS saying 6" plus extremely likely in tehareas in red

by **aiannone** Mon Dec 02, 2019 12:10 pm

Moderate snow in Manhattan

by **jmanley32** Mon Dec 02, 2019 12:10 pm

It is snowing pretty good in white plains still, accuwx updated me for a foot! Although NWS still has advisory with 2-4....who is right remains to be seen. I am surprised no WSW since latest SR models are all in agreement of double digits even down to coast.

by **amugs** Mon Dec 02, 2019 12:12 pm

Look at the convection over the ocean east of toms River - swing that puppy thoruh please and those rates would be 1-3" per hr stuff easily

December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations - Page 13 Inxr1Kphla_h

December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations - Page 13 Inxr1Kphla_h

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Dec 02, 2019 12:13 pm

Convergence off the coast is causing convection to fire up. Not sure any of that actually makes it inland. Seems like the best dynamics are too far from us, but the H5 ULL could try to swing it closer after it passes to our south. It's pretty much there so now or never.

850mb finally off the coast. Once 700mb low gets there we should see frontogenesis spread across the area

by **docstox12** Mon Dec 02, 2019 12:13 pm

Moderate snow now here, heaviest of the day so far.GFS ENS has me in 6+ area.Roads a mess again now.30 degrees.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Dec 02, 2019 12:17 pm

by **jmanley32** Mon Dec 02, 2019 12:18 pm

It is snowing pretty good in white plains still, accuwx updated me for a foot! Although NWS still has advisory with 2-4....who is right remains to be seen. I am surprised no WSW since latest SR models are all in agreement of double digits even down to coast.

by **docstox12** Mon Dec 02, 2019 12:19 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:

Wow Frank, magnificent!

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Dec 02, 2019 12:21 pm

I marked the rain/snow line. NJ shore still seeing some sleet which should changeover in 1-2 hours. West-Central LI is about to change to snow.

by **sroc4** Mon Dec 02, 2019 12:23 pm

850 mb low just closed off S of LI. The result is the 0 line shifting to the S shore. Radar indicates even eastern suffolk could get into the good shiza

December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations - Page 13 850mb_sf

December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations - Page 13 850mb_sf

by **sroc4** Mon Dec 02, 2019 12:25 pm

amugs wrote:Look at the convection over the ocean east of toms River - swing that puppy thoruh please and those rates would be 1-3" per hr stuff easily

That radar does no justice to the eastern flank of the precip

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Dec 02, 2019 12:25 pm

https://www.njweather.org/maps/nj-statewide-radar-1-hour-loop