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December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations

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Post by sroc4 Mon Dec 02, 2019 10:25 am

Moisture is back filling nicely

December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations  - Page 12 WUNIDS_map?station=OKX&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.7043478260869566&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=365.92592592592587&centery=214.44444444444446&transx=-34.07407407407413&transy=-25

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 02, 2019 10:28 am

Frank_Wx wrote:The RGEM shows a massive band over NYC. Those west and east of this band are in subsidence and see much less. This is going to be some nowcasting event to see where this band develops. Huge bust potential for many places and this now includes N&W of NYC which once was looking like the jackpot.

December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations  - Page 12 Screenshot.thumb.png.763c52c67e7d82efd91a0862795b2872
wow that 12 to 15 is literally miles from me. That's impressive and I'll take my 6 to 8 though if Bronx sees 12 to 16 i might be a but salty lol get it

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Post by amugs Mon Dec 02, 2019 10:32 am

He is developing into a Nor and will produce the goods.
It will be puking snow with very heavy rates from about 1-3PM with this here.
Shades of Nov 2018 here peeps?
Moderately snowing here in Allendale, in school, gonna be a touch ride home everything is covered in white - you know 1st time snowfalls hoe drivers are let alone 1st time drivers - a poop show in the making!!
We are a good 3-4 hours ahead of where it was forecasted
December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations  - Page 12 0?ui=2&ik=2b82a3487c&attid=0

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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Dec 02, 2019 10:32 am

I'm already at 36 degrees in Northern Ocean County New Jersey I like the Banning that I see I think we're going to be in for it and we've been under model this whole time look at those bands right offshore
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Post by billg315 Mon Dec 02, 2019 10:33 am

As the radar continues to “fill-in” across the region looks like a heavy snow band has set up just southwest of me across parts of Mercer, eastern Hunterdon, and southern Somerset counties.
December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations  - Page 12 0efec210
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Post by amugs Mon Dec 02, 2019 10:41 am

December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations  - Page 12 EKyrDU7WsAAzlAd?format=png&name=small
Areas in purpel will get smoked then it will pivot east

RGEM smokes Zoo and I
Additional snows
December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations  - Page 12 EKyrM8mWsAEY1q1?format=png&name=small

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Post by algae888 Mon Dec 02, 2019 10:49 am

After a coating of snow and sleet this morning and about an hour Lull in the precip snow has commenced again love the banding heading this way and especially love the rgem
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Post by billg315 Mon Dec 02, 2019 10:53 am

Well I saw it on the radar and now the NWS issues this. Should get fun here in the next hour or two:

AN AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW IS AFFECTING HUNTERDON...SOUTHWESTERNMORRIS...SOUTHERN WARREN...MERCER...SOMERSET AND WESTERN MIDDLESEX
COUNTIES
At 1040 AM EST, an area of heavier snow continues to slowly move across portions of Mercer County, western Middlesex County northward to Somerset, Hunterdon, Morris and into Warren counties.

Snowfall rates up to an inch per hour will result in an increase in accumulations on untreated surfaces and also significantly reduce the visibility. Remember, bridges and overpasses tend to be colder and therefore be more slippery.

Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations. Be prepared that roads may become quickly snow covered during heavier bursts of snow. Slow down and allow extra time when traveling.

Locations impacted include Trenton, New Brunswick, Somerville, Somerset, East Brunswick,
Bridgewater, South Brunswick, North Brunswick, Ewing, Dover,
Middlesex, Princeton, Bound Brook, Manville, Hackettstown, Wharton, Washington, Rockaway, Jamesburg and Hightstown.

This includes the following highways Interstate 195 in New Jersey between mile markers 0 and 6.
Interstate 287 in New Jersey between mile markers 8 and 33.
Interstate 295 in New Jersey between mile markers 59 and 76.
Interstate 78 in New Jersey between mile markers 8 and 39.
Interstate 80 in New Jersey between mile markers 25 and 35.
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Post by dkodgis Mon Dec 02, 2019 10:54 am

This has been a strange storm for me. It has steadily snowed since last night but the totals so far are so low. No more than 5 inches it seems but the snow is very compact, heavy, and almost icy. Who is getting the totals then? Not I, not I , not I.
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Post by billg315 Mon Dec 02, 2019 10:55 am

dkodgis wrote:This has been a strange storm for me. It has steadily snowed since last night but the totals so far are so low.  No more than 5 inches it seems but the snow is very compact, heavy, and almost icy.  Who is getting the totals then? Not I, not I , not I.

Dude, if you’ve got 5” already don’t complain. For most of us that’s the best we’ll get. Lol.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 02, 2019 10:59 am

Doing nothing here in WP as far as snow, cant tell if sleet, but I see that band rotating in here pretty quickly. Al my wife is in Myt. Vernon says its been raining whole time?
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Dec 02, 2019 11:00 am

billg315 wrote:
dkodgis wrote:This has been a strange storm for me. It has steadily snowed since last night but the totals so far are so low.  No more than 5 inches it seems but the snow is very compact, heavy, and almost icy.  Who is getting the totals then? Not I, not I , not I.

Dude, if you’ve got 5” already don’t complain. For most of us that’s the best we’ll get. Lol.

You stole my Thunder.

Looking at a little over 3 inches right now OTG but this is solid as a rock concrete that's not going anywhere.

If the Rgem is correct and there's 8 inches yet to come, although it is a fairly narrow band so I'm not counting on it, it will be a pleasant surprise.

Math right now at 14 inches in Albany. The winner by a landslide.
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Post by Irish Mon Dec 02, 2019 11:00 am

Exactly Bill, i have nothing where i am. I get it though, seeing the white stuff falling and the forecasts coming in, makes you greedy!
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Post by jimv45 Mon Dec 02, 2019 11:02 am

Got about 6, hope the RGEM is correct that would put me over a foot!

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Post by docstox12 Mon Dec 02, 2019 11:04 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
billg315 wrote:
dkodgis wrote:This has been a strange storm for me. It has steadily snowed since last night but the totals so far are so low.  No more than 5 inches it seems but the snow is very compact, heavy, and almost icy.  Who is getting the totals then? Not I, not I , not I.

Dude, if you’ve got 5” already don’t complain. For most of us that’s the best we’ll get. Lol.

You stole my Thunder.

Looking at a little over 3 inches right now OTG but this is solid as a rock concrete that's not going anywhere.

If the Rgem is correct and there's 8 inches yet to come, although it is a fairly narrow band so I'm not counting on it, it will be a pleasant surprise.

Math right now at 14 inches in Albany. The winner by a landslide.

Those maps show a VERY narrow band with the dreaded substinance on either side of us CP.Definitley going to be a crap shoot later on.
Very light snow again after a lull.Radar looks good now filling in nicely.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 02, 2019 11:20 am

Its snowing very lightly very fine snow (white plains), hard to see from a distance to the window.
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Post by Vinnydula Mon Dec 02, 2019 11:23 am

Jman it's mostly sleet atm with some big flakes mixed in
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Post by dsix85 Mon Dec 02, 2019 11:23 am

@Frank- any chance of thundersnow under the heavy bands that set up?

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Post by amugs Mon Dec 02, 2019 11:27 am

The banding of heavy snow will not be that narrow as some models are show but rather a large swath line Tomer burg posted ON tWIITER  but extend that another 15 miles east I woudl say as this bad boy wraps up and deepens. PIVOT

December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations  - Page 12 2-e1541627773146

FILLING IN NICE A NICE PASTRY ..no??
December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations  - Page 12 Inxr1Knyca_h

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 02, 2019 11:27 am

dsix85 wrote:@Frank- any chance of thundersnow under the heavy bands that set up?

If the HRRR is right with that convective looking radar later this afternoon it’s possible but I don’t think the DBZ bands become that potent

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 02, 2019 11:28 am

What a beaut the radar looks like right now

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 02, 2019 11:29 am

GEM-LAM model showing big accumulations across the area

December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations  - Page 12 Image.png.c52d8243e23de965a4fbf6d2ccff2170

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Post by dsix85 Mon Dec 02, 2019 11:32 am

Does this shut down earlier now bc the onset of precipitation starting earlier than anticipated ?

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 02, 2019 11:33 am

Obvious by the growth and rate of the snow we’re in a position where the H5 vorticity is working in tandem with the developing surface low. Snow expanding everywhere. Exciting times!

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Post by billg315 Mon Dec 02, 2019 11:33 am

dsix85 wrote:Does this shut down earlier now bc the onset of precipitation starting earlier than anticipated ?

There is no indication from any of the models I’ve seen today including HRRR of this shutting downs before 2-4 am tomorrow.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 02, 2019 11:34 am

dsix85 wrote:Does this shut down earlier now bc the onset of precipitation starting earlier than anticipated ?

Yes a little bit. Should end for west/northwest sections between 10-11pm and 2-3am for coast

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 02, 2019 11:37 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Final call snow map - includes today's snowfall as well

December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations  - Page 12 December-1-2nd-call

Look for light to moderate snow/sleet/freezing rain to begin between 11am-1pm today from southwest to northeast. From CNJ to NE NJ and NYC, expect the wintry precip to changeover to rain around 3-4pm, maybe a little earlier. Areas in a mix (N&W of NYC) may see minor snow accumulations, but for the most part, will be in a mix with dangerous icing developing this evening. Please avoid roads if possible.

The summary for today is little to no snow accumulations and if they do happen it will be N&W of NYC, maybe 1-3".

The overnight hours things get interesting. The secondary low is poised to develop off the coast of NJ but staying very close to the coast, well inside the 40/70 BM. CNJ, NYC and LI could be in a dry slot overnight into the morning hours with either light rain or no precip falling. N&W will continue seeing a mix - even into the overnight hours - but will notice it slowly changing to all snow by the morning. This is where the secondary low takes hold and has snow falling over the area almost all day. Mix/rain line will gradually shifts south-southeast throughout the day. For NYC, that changeover may not happen until 4-5pm. Any precip before then should be mainly rain, which is why accumulations for immediate NYC are cut down. Mid-level centers are on top of us during the day, so 850mb temps are mild stretching from NJ shore to LI into CT.

The CCB that develops - it will develop - will drop additional snowfall over a localized region. Where I have the yellow circle there is the possibility of additional snow, maybe as much as 6" in some spots. Worse conditions will be from 4pm-12am with moderate to heavy snow falling.

Snow will come to an end between 4-5am on Tuesday.

Have fun tracking everyone!!

As for this map I still feel ok about it although I wish I expanded the yellow circle further south to encompass more of CNJ and East to include more of LI. I think the 4-8 can be expanded slightly S&E, and the 2-4 replaces the 1-3 across LI. Keep in mind we’re still uncertain about where the area of subsidence develops that will drastically cut down snow accumulations for some people. Also, these bands could “snow” themselves out at some point after the secondary stalls as the trough tries to go negative a bit.

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