December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations

3k NAM a bit different, precip more expansive on the southern side

3km NAM was even more impressive the banding just kept over the AREA LONGER, SWEET RUN!! my school has no bussing tomorrow but half staff reports at 10am, they so greedy for money if 1 kid comes that matters (and it would only be by drop off), if we work till 3:15 I think staff will be in trouble. I am hoping they call the day tomorrow AM.

Sanchize06 wrote:3k NAM a bit different, precip more expansive on the southern side

thats a huge difference from rgem, less than half of rgem at 18z in NJ. about the same here in southern westchester. actually no its 3 inches less for me, about 3 inches wow, these models all over the place and that huge dry slot.

jmanley32 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:3k NAM a bit different, precip more expansive on the southern side

thats a huge difference from rgem, less than half of rgem at 18z in NJ. about the same here in southern westchester. actually no its 3 inches less for me, about 3 inches wow, these models all over the place and that huge dry slot.

Yeah, I'll be interested to see if the RGEM holds

Sanchize06 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:3k NAM a bit different, precip more expansive on the southern side

thats a huge difference from rgem, less than half of rgem at 18z in NJ. about the same here in southern westchester. actually no its 3 inches less for me, about 3 inches wow, these models all over the place and that huge dry slot.

Yeah, I'll be interested to see if the RGEM holds

What time does it run?
Ps we are neihbors..we live in Hazlet

weatherwatchermom wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:3k NAM a bit different, precip more expansive on the southern side

thats a huge difference from rgem, less than half of rgem at 18z in NJ. about the same here in southern westchester. actually no its 3 inches less for me, about 3 inches wow, these models all over the place and that huge dry slot.

Yeah, I'll be interested to see if the RGEM holds

What time does it run?
Ps we are neihbors..we live in Hazlet

Yes, we are close! lol And the RGEM should be running within the next 20 minutes or so

Sanchize06 wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:3k NAM a bit different, precip more expansive on the southern side

thats a huge difference from rgem, less than half of rgem at 18z in NJ. about the same here in southern westchester. actually no its 3 inches less for me, about 3 inches wow, these models all over the place and that huge dry slot.

Yeah, I'll be interested to see if the RGEM holds

What time does it run?
Ps we are neihbors..we live in Hazlet

Yes, we are close! lol And the RGEM should be running within the next 20 minutes or so

Thank you

NWS just upped my Winter Storm Warning from 4-6” to now 4-8”. So since noon my forecast has progressed from 1-4” to 4-6” to 4-8”. I like that trend.

yeah im still under a advisory yet models are showing 6 inches, it should b a wsw.

Well like the NAM, the RGEM seems to be a littler weaker and lost the really heavy banding

Latest WSW update for me in Sussex county give us 8-12 inches, upped from 5-8 earlier today.

jmanley32 wrote:yeah im still under a advisory yet models are showing 6 inches, it should b a wsw.

Just because some models show 6 inches doesn't mean 6 inches is going to fall and stick especially in and around the city. You lose some to melting depending on temps and when exactly the precip falls so a wwa is reasonable in this situation.

RGEM



18z

Which of those maps, sanch, are the more recent run?

as usual near a snow hole

Irish wrote:Which of those maps, sanch, are the more recent run?

Top unfortunately lol

Sanchize06 wrote:RGEM



18z

wow even slashed totals up north in half, funny enough it actually upped me from 18z by about 3 inches showing 6-8 for me there. the stark change over NJ is crazy. I think this is just going to be a nowcast.

jmanley32 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:RGEM



18z

wow even slashed totals up north in half, funny enough it actually upped me from 18z by about 3 inches showing 6-8 for me there. the stark change over NJ is crazy.  I think this is just going to be a nowcast.

Yeah, the models are going to struggle a bit with the banding. The new runs of the NAM and RGEM being a bit east help those just to the north and east of the city avoid being dry-slotted, but the overall weaker system and banding really hurt CNJ and places near there.

Sanchize06 wrote:RGEM



18z

So Trenton went from 11.1 inches to 1.3 inches in one run, 6 hours apart, crazy.

If that doesn't tell you this is a nowcast tomorrow nothing will. Forget the models, all they're telling us is some people within a 75 mile radius of NYC will do well tomorrow and some will get screwed, they don't know exactly where yet, and they won't even after it begins.

We will find out Tuesday morning. At least Math has done well today in Albany at 9 inches and some of our friends in the LHV Jim and Hyde received several inches.

I'm sitting with an inch and a half of sleet, snow, and freezing rain stuck to everything and not happy about it. The rest of us wait for tomorrow and hope. May the CCB band be with you.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:RGEM



18z

So Trenton went from 11.1 inches to 1.3 inches in one run, 6 hours apart, crazy.

If that doesn't tell you this is a nowcast tomorrow nothing will. Forget the models, all they're telling us is some people within a 75 mile radius of NYC will do well tomorrow and some will get screwed, they don't know exactly where yet, and they won't even after it begins.

We will find out Tuesday morning. At least Math has done well today in Albany at 9 inches and some of our friends in the LHV Jim and Hyde received several inches.

I'm sitting with an inch and a half of sleet, snow, and freezing rain stuck to everything and not happy about it. The rest of us wait for tomorrow and hope. May the CCB band be with you.

Totally agree. Surface maps and radar will be what tells the story

So the NAM/RGEM shift East and the GFS keeps the deform band west and expanded south toward Philly.

Models haven’t a clue! Now cast all the way. Can’t wait to track tomorrow

36* here in North Caldwell hope the temps go down as predicted

Frank_Wx wrote:So the NAM/RGEM shift East and the GFS keeps the deform band west and expanded south toward Philly.

Models haven’t a clue! Now cast all the way. Can’t wait to track tomorrow

Amen frank. Going to be a long day of trying to find excuses to leave my windowless room at work to go look out the window of the 24th floor in Manhattan lol

at work till 6 when do you think this starts in westchester.

The hi res rgem brings The Heavy band right over the city 6 + 4 many on that run should be fun to track tomorrow

algae888 wrote:The hi res rgem brings The Heavy band right over the city 6 + 4 many on that run should be fun to track tomorrow

sweet lord that was a awesome run we get 8 to 12 am. Let's hope that plays out. That was some serious banding for many hours.

About a half hour ago, I went out and measured the snow here in Albany and got to the 12" mark, officially making this a "Godzilla" snowstorm here. The last Godzilla I experienced firsthand was the 1/23/16 snowstorm (aka "Jonas") back when I still lived in Bellerose, and that was a Roidzilla with 25" IMBY.

At the moment, the snow here is tapering off to light snow and it will be interesting as to how the inverted trough develops as the transfer takes place. It does look like it will fill back in here by Monday evening, which will help to increase the snow totals.

Now, for you folks down in the tri-state area, the temperatures at dusk look to be in the mid-30s. It should be noted that if you are going to get some accumulations, you need the snow to come down at high rates. Model guidance does have NYC getting some minor accumulations but the aforementioned factor needs to be taken into consideration.