Re: December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations

by **jmanley32** Mon Dec 02, 2019 1:41 pm

Irish wrote:Been snowing beautifully since about 10:30 here, just enjoying whatever we get this early in the season. Oh and I'll take this nice early dismissal from school (cherry on top)!

Poor Jman hates his job, lol. There's got to be at least one post on every page about him either being screwed by a storm not performing or his school district not canceling school for the day. I feel for ya J. It's like a soap opera, you have me on the edge of my seat with what's gonna happen next.

no I love my job not every aspect but I hate it when they call us in for no reason. Yeah technically I guess that's banter I'll keep it there from now on in future. Btw where is wsw for southern coast and NYC. You would think models would have nws reconsider.

by DAYBLAZER Mon Dec 02, 2019 1:45 pm

Looking at the radar Frank provided it appears the heaviest stuff in Northern NJ is just to my east in the Morris county region. I'm right on the Western fringe of that.

My question-- will the precip shield continue to expand west as the storm intensifies and pulls north?

by **billg315** Mon Dec 02, 2019 1:53 pm

I’m right on the edge of the steady snow right now. Light to moderate - heavy band rotated through a couple hours ago. Waiting to see if this rotated back in and fills in statewide as the short range models have shown or if the current NW to SE axis is where it’s at for this storm. Either way, can’t complain: December 2 and ground is coated white with a steady snow falling. I’ll take it if it’s 2” or 10.

by SkiSeadooJoe Mon Dec 02, 2019 1:58 pm

hummm yea is this gonna rotate back, nothing falling here in Toms River and Radar looks like this thing is over down here! Mad

by **Vinnydula** Mon Dec 02, 2019 1:59 pm

Looks like it will be ending in Westchester for now unless it fills in

by **weatherwatchermom** Mon Dec 02, 2019 2:01 pm

Wow as most of you know I live directly on the water...our ground is covered and temp was 33.. but roads all clearI just got to my son's school 4 min from home and the temp is 32 and the roads are all covered and slick..what a diff a few mins inland makes

by deadrabbit79 Mon Dec 02, 2019 2:05 pm

Vinnydula wrote:Looks like it will be ending in Westchester for now unless it fills in

when is it expected to start up again? do i have a window to get to the gym for a bit between 3-5?

by **jmanley32** Mon Dec 02, 2019 2:06 pm

Vinnydula wrote:Looks like it will be ending in Westchester for now unless it fills in

yep it's pretty much done here I guess. Unless st else happens but we see the band where it is and that looks to be where it stays. It is what it is. Maybe a quarter inch.

by **billg315** Mon Dec 02, 2019 2:20 pm

Just got an alert from NWS that the area of heavy snow in Monmouth is moving NW into Somerset, Morris and Hunterdon. Guess I can gear up for round two in the next hour.

by **jmanley32** Mon Dec 02, 2019 2:21 pm

Is what's over nj now the deformation band? If so I'm guess it shuts off for most east of nj line and even north into upper Hudson Valley. I fully expected this to be honest. If I am wrong and something more intense is coming please correct me and explain where it's coming from cuz I see nothing on radar but showers to east of nyc and far western LI.

by **jmanley32** Mon Dec 02, 2019 2:23 pm

billg315 wrote:Just got an alert from NWS that the area of heavy snow in Monmouth is moving NW into Somerset, Morris and Hunterdon. Guess I can gear up for round two in the next hour.

nice at least someone is cashing in. Guess the forum is called NJ strong for a reason lol

by **skinsfan1177** Mon Dec 02, 2019 2:25 pm

Its ripping here roads are covered if say at least 1.5 -2 inches

by **jmanley32** Mon Dec 02, 2019 2:27 pm

Lol did anyone see hrrr? By 7z tomorrow most see 2 to 3 inches that's it. Nan has over a foot in some places and 8 or so here. Not happening but I also don't buy 1 to 3 by hrrr.

by **2004blackwrx** Mon Dec 02, 2019 2:31 pm

Just as mapped. im in a snow hole.

by **Radz** Mon Dec 02, 2019 2:31 pm

33.4°, barely 2" between yesterday and today, roads are wet. Between temp, low precip rates, and daytime event, not impressed as of yet. Still hopeful that it picks up for a while before it shuts off. Was hoping to cash in on being north and west lol radar has potential but not sure it'll make it up here.

by **skinsfan1177** Mon Dec 02, 2019 2:32 pm

If this keeps up I will see 4-6 inches

by **docstox12** Mon Dec 02, 2019 2:33 pm

Went to light snow about 1/2 hour ago.Weird storm.Such a small area of coverage.Eyeballing 5 inches here but will wait for the trained spotter for my final amount.It's a nice early December event and should stay around as this week cold temps are forecasted up here.

Will be interesting to see the next few hours how this storm develops.

by **heehaw453** Mon Dec 02, 2019 2:34 pm

Anyone have reports of accumulations so far? I'm 1/4" mostly pre-dawn hours. Bupkis since then.

I think the positively tilted trough did in EPA. Could see another 1" and that will do it.

I'm always skeptical of sig snowfall with temps in mid 30's. Really has to be a super dynamic system which i don't think this one is.

by **billg315** Mon Dec 02, 2019 2:34 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Lol did anyone see hrrr? By 7z tomorrow most see 2 to 3 inches that's it. Nan has over a foot in some places and 8 or so here. Not happening but I also don't buy 1 to 3 by hrrr.

I’m not really looking at the HRRR accumulation outputs as sometimes that’s off. But the verbatim model shows an area of heavy snow over the immediate NYC area this evening. By definition I don’t think you can get 3 or 4 hours of heavy snow and get less than 3” (setting aside melting which shouldn’t be an issue in heavy snow at these temps in December). Whether that band materializes is a different question altogether.

by **brownie** Mon Dec 02, 2019 2:34 pm

Up to 3.5” now, so it’s been one inch per hour for at least the last 90 minutes.

by **Grselig** Mon Dec 02, 2019 2:38 pm

I like this!
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
233 PM EST Mon Dec 2 2019

NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ069-072-022030-
Hudson-Eastern Union-Eastern Essex-Western Bergen-Western
Passaic-Western Union-Western Essex-Eastern Bergen-Eastern
Passaic-Rockland-New York (Manhattan)-
233 PM EST Mon Dec 2 2019

...A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT HUDSON...PASSAIC...UNION...
BERGEN...ESSEX...ROCKLAND AND NEW YORK (MANHATTAN) COUNTIES...

At 231 PM EST, a band of heavy snow was located over Englewood, or
over Bergenfield, moving west at 10 mph. Snowfall rates between 1 to
2 inches per hour will be possible.

Locations impacted include...
New York, Newark, Jersey City, Paterson, Elizabeth, Passaic, Bayonne,
Wayne, Hoboken, Plainfield, Bloomfield, Hackensack, Linden,
Bergenfield and Paramus.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Dec 02, 2019 2:39 pm

At 5.8 inches

30.5 and light/moderate snow.

If we make double digits I'll be happy.

by **billg315** Mon Dec 02, 2019 2:40 pm

I don’t like what I see on the radar on the western edge of this thing (especially where you are heehaw). Precip on the western fringe seems to be drying out. If something doesn’t change to fill that in, areas west of a line from Trenton to Port Jervis may not see anything else from this. And if that dry air slips east even western NJ might shut off by nightfall.

by **jimv45** Mon Dec 02, 2019 2:44 pm

Still snowing last time I checked I had 6.5 hoping to get to 8, not the foot plus i expected but will take a nice early snow event!!!

by **Vinnydula** Mon Dec 02, 2019 2:45 pm

Looks like the whole line is dieing out

by **billg315** Mon Dec 02, 2019 2:47 pm

Frank mentioned this morning that if the deformation zone was as intense as the models showed it could create subsidence issues either side of it. I think we’re seeing that on radar right now with that heavy band in eastern NJ.

by **docstox12** Mon Dec 02, 2019 2:49 pm

When I look at a radar loop, it looks like the storm is not moving but dying out as it rotates,LOL.I don't see strengthening at all.

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