February 12th-14th Storm Potential

[NjWeatherGuy]

Correction CMC is 3"+ for most of NJ

[aiannone]

8-12" of snow for NYC west with this run on wxbell maps. 6-8 for northern and western LI and 3-5 for southern and eastern LI. Thats the western most solution. Take a middle road between GFS/nam and euro and we have a healthy snowstorm even to the coast.

[NjWeatherGuy]

All of NJ/NYC/LI and Central and southern CT go to rain on the 12z euro. It went about 30mi west

Not true, looked at the wxbell map and freezing line is just a hair west of I95. Like I said a more amplified trend is a good thing.

[aiannone]

[Frank_Wx]

EURO just came in. Pretty ugly. Lots of rain. DC went from 20 inches of snow at the 00z run last night to 5 inches this run. Lord.

I need to look at H5 maps and see if this makes any sense

[Frank_Wx]

EURO is about 12 inches of snow for NYC still

[aiannone]

DC still gets a lot of snow

[aiannone]

[NjWeatherGuy]

Beautiful IMBY. Looks like the NW may finally cash in on a large dynamic storm. Ive missed out on the larger half of the totals for each "blizzard" of the past 5 years. Were overdue. I have no sympathy to the coast. Besides this is still not locked in yet.

[aiannone]

*NEW* updated snowfall forecast for ‪#‎NYC‬ tri-state area. Totals have been increased significantly: @NBCNewYork

[amugs]

Frank the SST around this area are below normal (29-32* from buoy data)which should also help with the storms E NE winds keeping the rain/snow line pinned S&E.

[Math23x7]

Well, the EURO snow map does use the 10:1 ratio. So I doubt that if this were to verify, NYC would get the 10"+ snow totals. It would probably be 4-8". But I usually put more faith into the ensembles, so we'll see where that goes

And also, I can't believe this thread is at over 1,000 posts...

[jmanley32]

nvm mets your pic didnt load for me right away.

[jmanley32]

Sorry didnt mewan to be in caps was typing something else.

[RJB8525]

*NEW* updated snowfall forecast for ‪#‎NYC‬ tri-state area. Totals have been increased significantly: @NBCNewYork

i womder if ABC will update tonight,Bill at 12 moved 10-16 watch stretched more southward..should be interesting if they put NYC in this category now seems to be a battle zone

[Frank_Wx]

Frank the SST around this area are below normal (29-32* from buoy data)which should also help with the storms E NE winds keeping the rain/snow line pinned S&E.

Just like hurricanes, these type of storms like to follow the warmer sea surface temperatures. It's possible

[jmanley32]

Frank the SST around this area are below normal (29-32* from buoy data)which should also help with the storms E NE winds keeping the rain/snow line pinned S&E.

Just like hurricanes, these type of storms like to follow the warmer sea surface temperatures. It's possible

i like the sound of this : )

[jmanley32]

Wonder when thoise WSW will be moved north, should be soon tonight or latest tomorrow.

[sabamfa]

Are we still looking at a 2-3AM Thursday start time? Any thoughts yet on how much snow by 5AM or 6AM?

[jimv45]

Bernie on Accuweather is leaning towards A hug the coast scenario and said the word Blizzard for Hudson valley!

[Frank_Wx]

Are we still looking at a 2-3AM Thursday start time? Any thoughts yet on how much snow by 5AM or 6AM?

Yes and could have 3-6 inches on the ground by 6-7am

[Finster712]

I usually just lurk on here... been following since 2010 though from the ABC board and followed you guys over. I find you all to be so knowledgeable and reliable. And I've learned a lot

What are you thinking is the end time for this storm?

[algae888]

this storm is giving me a headache. so much potential. I don't want to get 6 inches of snow and then turn to slop. its the foreign models vs. the American models again. really a blend of them would be perfect for most of us. this may be our last chance for a while to get good snows.

[NjWeatherGuy]

GGEM snowfall, beautiful despite the warm look.

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=226634

1.6" QPF snow for CNJ

[algae888]

GGEM snowfall, beautiful despite the warm look.

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=226634

1.6" QPF snow for CNJ

that map puts me in the 40-50MM which is about 15-18" of snow i think. i'll take that in a heart beat. still GGEM gives me about 6-8 hrs of slop

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