Valentine's Day 2016. NYC first sub zero in 22 years

I'm starting to believe that this may have a shot at breaking the 22 year 0 barrier in NYC. If they had a fresh snow cover, they won't, I'd make it a 50-50, without 25-75.

The direction it's coming from, almost a straight shot from the NP, down over Quebec and straight down the Hudson, gives it no time to modify. This is the direction ideal for our coldest outbreaks. Cold air masses that enter over NW Canada and settle in the upper midwest and eventually get to us are not our ideal setup for record cold, this setup is. The timing of when it settles in may also be ideal to finally make it happen.

2 separate 1 degree readings in 2004, and the 2 degree reading last year both had a fresh fairly deep snow cover, and much colder surrounding water temps. Those are the two missing ingredients, otherwise this would have a great shot.

I'll say they finally touch 0 but don't go below.

In what has so far been the warmest meteorological winter ever (42.5 degrees through yesterday), and has recorded only 11 days out of 71 below normal since December 1st, that would just add to the oddities that is this winter/extended fall.

Taking a second look at this the winds will still be fairly high throughout most of Saturday night which I've always contended you need on the heat island to break record lows in winter. Combine that with the reasons I stated in the first post and I'm starting to believe NYC will hit 0 or slightly below by Sunday morning. If there was some kind of fresh snow cover on Saturday I'd favor it happening but now I'd say it's 50-50. Considering it's been 22 years and amidst the warmest winter ever this would be quite an aberration if it happens.

With little snow cover and high winds Saturday night the suburbs will not bottom out as low as they could. During the January 1994 cold wave the morning NYC hit -2 the surrounding suburbs hit -20 to -30. No not wind chills those were the actual temperatures. Poughkeepsie hit -22, Newburgh -20 and NWNJ -32. I still have a picture of the thermometer at my house when it bottomed that morning at -23. I don't believe suburban areas come anywhere close to that Sunday morning as several of the necessary conditions are missing but as stated earlier for the heat island this could be close to the ideal scenario.

Something at least to watch until winter officially begins.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Taking a second look at this the winds will still be fairly high throughout most of Saturday night which I've always contended you need on the heat island to break record lows in winter. Combine that with the reasons I stated in the first post and I'm starting to believe NYC will hit 0 or slightly below by Sunday morning. If there was some kind of fresh snow cover on Saturday I'd favor it happening but now I'd say it's 50-50. Considering it's been 22 years and amidst the warmest winter ever this would be quite an aberration if it happens.

With little snow cover and high winds Saturday night the suburbs will not bottom out as low as they could. During the January 1994 cold wave the morning NYC hit -2 the surrounding suburbs hit -20 to -30. No not wind chills those were the actual temperatures. Poughkeepsie hit -22, Newburgh -20 and NWNJ -32. I still have a picture of the thermometer at my house when it bottomed that morning at -23. I don't believe suburban areas come anywhere close to that Sunday morning as several of the necessary conditions are missing but as stated earlier for the heat island this could be close to the ideal scenario.

Something at least to watch until winter officially begins.

To this we had a great snow pack for this with a N drain of Arctic Air - light winds and crystal clear skies - it had no time to moderate as the whole NE had a deep snow pack. If we had a decent snowpack then I think NYC woudl be able to go after 0 or even N by 1 or 2. I think it bottoms out at 3 or 4*

ECMWF 2mt Min temps over the weekend interval up here

With the snow cover you guys have Ryan I'm sure NH will see some -20 to -30 readings as will upstate NY and parts of VT and Maine.

I just want to see NYC finally crack zero. The lack of snow cover as Mugs and I both stated may be the killer though. I still give this setup a 50-50 for NYC to do it.

This is going to be close. I do not think I have ever seen 850mb temps get as low as -30* in the City.

Oymyakon Russia(coldest town on earth) will have temps of -40 on Sunday...so we can have our closest taste of their weather..

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per NWS..very close

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No, my forecast is -5, even earlier in winter my lows dropped into the teens/low twenties and the city didnt make it below freezing. For example what is the temp in NYC now?

Its 22 here and 27 in CPK. Has more of an effect at night I guess because the buildings/roads and infrastructure trap the sun and the days heat. Out here in the suburban valley is often way colder despite only 100ft elevation and being SW of city.

The last sub-zero day in NYC was January 19th, 1994. The last sub-(-2) day in NYC was February 15th, 1943 when it got down to -8.

Special Statement
Issued: 11:27 AM EST Feb. 11, 2016 – National Weather Service


... Major outbreak of cold air this weekend...

Bitterly cold temperatures will move into the area this weekend.

* Temperatures Saturday night into early Sunday morning will fall
close to zero in and around New York City... and zero to 5 below
across Long Island... interior northeast New Jersey... the lower
Hudson Valley... and southern Connecticut. Wind chill values
during this time could reach life threatening levels as cold as
20 to 25 below zero.

* High temperatures on Sunday will only be in the teens.

* Cold spells of this magnitude bring a risk of frostbite and
hypothermia for anyone who does not take proper precautions. In
addition... frozen pipes and overworked furnaces could leave your
house without heat or running water... and car batteries run the
risk of dying.

* Never venture outdoors without wearing gloves... a hat and
several layers of clothing. Wind chill values late Saturday
night into Sunday morning could lead to frostbite in less than
30 minutes if proper precautions are not taken.

* Run water at a trickle and keep Cabinet doors open to prevent
pipes from freezing.

* Never use a stove or oven to heat your home or use an open flame
to melt frozen pipes. Many house fires result from these
practices.

* Check tire pressure and your car battery. Be sure your car has
a winter safety kit that includes a blanket... warm clothes and
gloves in case your car breaks down or becomes stranded.

* Take extra steps to keep your pets warm and know their limits to
cold.

Math23x7 wrote:The last sub-zero day in NYC was January 19th, 1994.  The last sub-(-2) day in NYC was February 15th, 1943 when it got down to -8.

Exactly, rarely gets below 0 out here, although I think it has the past few winters on the coldest days. Much harder with the urban heat island.

By mid Feb its gets even more rare. At this point there's only a handful of record lows below zero left in Central Park. Almost all 100+ years old.

850s

498DDM PV over NE early Sunday 

Dtone wrote:" />

per NWS..very close

They have me in the HV at -7 so it will be very close in the City.

What's the point, you just pay more for heating the house? If there is no heavy snow accompanying the cold, I don't enjoy it at all.

Forecast of -15 for my parents up in Ulster County, NY. If the winds calm down I think everyone from central Jersey on north get below zero IMO. At about 4:30 A.M. When Central Park gets down below 0 the old Zookeper jumps out of a cab that has been parked all night by the conservatory, and then goes and smashes the thermometer used to take measurements. By the time someone realizes it's broken the sun is up and it's already 5 degrees and too late. Zookeper screws NYC out of a record again!!

syosnow94 wrote:Forecast of -15 for my parents up in Ulster County, NY.  If the winds calm down I think everyone from central Jersey on north get below zero IMO. At about 4:30 A.M. When Central Park gets down below 0 the old Zookeper jumps out of a cab that has been parked all night by the conservatory, and then goes and smashes the thermometer used to take measurements.  By the time someone realizes it's broken the sun is up and it's already 5 degrees and too late.  Zookeper screws NYC out of a record again!!

Zookeeper carries a little blow torch in case the thermometer gets too low.

I still feel about the same for NYC chances of getting to 0 tonight as when I first started the thread. The lack of snow cover will be the key if it doesn't happen because all of the other ingredients are there.

Most suburbs right outside the heat island should get sub zero and 30-40 miles away there should be some double digit negatives. This won't be a Janaury 1994 outbreak for the suburbs with -20 and -30 readings but I'm betting on several areas going -10 to -15 within 50 miles of the city.

I'll guess the city hits 0. I've been high on this setup when Fank, Sroc and Mugs first brought it to my attention. I'm hoping it happens.

NAM temps tomorrow morning 

Old forge NY -15 right now. It has been dropping since midnight. They're expecting -35 by tomorrow morning.

Dropped from 21 to 18 in the past 10 minutes. Windy too.

Right now it's -15 in old forge NY, -13 in Saranac Lake NY and 7 in Albany.

This s the region this air is coming straight down from and this is our ideal setup. No modifications over the Midwest first.

If we only had a decent snow cover. I still think NYC MAKES A GOOD RUN AT 0. I'd like to finally put that 22 year barrier behind them.