JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:16 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
rb924119 wrote:ALL IM GONNA SAY IS HOLY 06Z GEFS

Why do you do this and not attach pictures?

It's like looking at Playboy (aging myself) and the centerfold pulls out to block letters that say "WOW, take our word for it the photo we were going to post is really hot".
I agree and your analogy is too funny. Lol
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Post by Radz on Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:21 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
rb924119 wrote:ALL IM GONNA SAY IS HOLY 06Z GEFS

Why do you do this and not attach pictures?

It's like looking at Playboy (aging myself) and the centerfold pulls out to block letters that say "WOW, take our word for it the photo we were going to post is really hot".
lol!
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Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:29 am

The 6z EURO continues the trend of greater separating the southern and northern stream energies. It is looking more likely a phase between these two will NOT occur, but lets make sure these trends keep going today.

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Post by weatherwatchermom on Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:32 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
rb924119 wrote:ALL IM GONNA SAY IS HOLY 06Z GEFS

Why do you do this and not attach pictures?

It's like looking at Playboy (aging myself) and the centerfold pulls out to block letters that say "WOW, take our word for it the photo we were going to post is really hot".

hilarious!!
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Post by dkodgis on Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:38 am

I too liked the interviews.
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Post by amugs on Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:42 am

EURO MAJOR CHANGES ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE:
AWESOME FRIGGIN TREND - MLK 1994 Special in the works

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Post by Dunnzoo on Wed Jan 16, 2019 8:12 am

syosnow94 wrote:WOW. NWS going all ALL RAIN except for far nw areas where there could be a mix and then brutal cold followed by a quick warm up and more rain Wednesday. JUST WOW IF THIS VERIFIES. Even with the overnight trends they went this way. VERY SURPRISING AND UNSETTLING

NWS is always late to update their forecast discussions, I don't even go to their page until the day before or morning of an event. Still over 3 days away and a lot can change.

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Post by Guest on Wed Jan 16, 2019 8:41 am

Dunnzoo wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:WOW. NWS going all ALL RAIN except for far nw areas where there could be a mix and then brutal cold followed by a quick warm up and more rain Wednesday. JUST WOW IF THIS VERIFIES. Even with the overnight trends they went this way. VERY SURPRISING AND UNSETTLING

NWS is always late to update their forecast discussions, I don't even go to their page until the day before or morning of an event. Still over 3 days away and a lot can change.

I TOTALLY agree with you BUT the thing is they actually went the opposite way of the overnight models. Weird!

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Post by amugs on Wed Jan 16, 2019 8:44 am

Deep Thunder holds steadfast:

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 4 39F1BC39-D2AE-492F-A9B1-185C76A260FC.thumb.jpeg.493c5f3b01afc03b6b3f8057bbaeb76b

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Wed Jan 16, 2019 8:46 am

amugs wrote:Deep Thunder holds steadfast:

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 4 39F1BC39-D2AE-492F-A9B1-185C76A260FC.thumb.jpeg.493c5f3b01afc03b6b3f8057bbaeb76b

I haven't really paid attention to that model. Has it been negative or positive regarding the weekend storm?
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Post by amugs on Wed Jan 16, 2019 8:48 am

JESUS this would be cray cray - we better pray that this storm jumps 50-100 miles S&E so this deosn't happen - ala 1994 analogy I made above

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 4 DxBrUbHX4AET2iO

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Post by amugs on Wed Jan 16, 2019 8:49 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
amugs wrote:Deep Thunder holds steadfast:

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 4 39F1BC39-D2AE-492F-A9B1-185C76A260FC.thumb.jpeg.493c5f3b01afc03b6b3f8057bbaeb76b

I haven't really paid attention to that model. Has it been negative or positive regarding the weekend storm?

It has not wavered in a positive direction - nailed the 11-15 storm along with the Ukie but dont know to much else about it except Mike Ventrice uses this.

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Post by Guest on Wed Jan 16, 2019 8:53 am

sroc4 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:One thing that I need to ask the more knowledgable in here is is see all positive signs in model runs last night the things we need for snowier solutions but it seems not to reflect the surface in my area. Will the maps eventually show snowier solutions here on CNJ coast?

With less phasing you don't get the arctic air in as quick.  That would be my guess.

Again with less phasing you get less cold air to work with.  This could allow the warm nose at 925 and/or 850 an easier time to push into the area.  As per usual timing is everything and us coasties may have to be careful for what we wish for.  A LP track over the area with little phasing will likely keep the coastal plain rain during the brunt of the storm, but front end snow comes into play more and more.  

BTW The Aresian if your out there on your far N&W island know that yes I am rooting for my own back yard which typically means you take some kind of hit, but know I still think you will do well with this one.

I totally understand. The one thing I might have working in my favor is the colder temps in land. Perhaps the higher ratios can help offset what I might lose due to track. Besides, lazy surface map looking me is still seeing 10-12" at 10:1 so it's not like I'm going to be starving for snow. I'm just glad I didn't get out of control yesterday and declare undying love for Ray when I saw his first snow map.

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Post by weatherwatchermom on Wed Jan 16, 2019 8:57 am

amugs wrote:Deep Thunder holds steadfast:

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 4 39F1BC39-D2AE-492F-A9B1-185C76A260FC.thumb.jpeg.493c5f3b01afc03b6b3f8057bbaeb76b

how come we can not see the image?
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:04 am

amugs wrote:JESUS this would be cray cray - we better pray that this storm jumps 50-100 miles S&E so this deosn't happen - ala 1994 analogy I made above

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 4 DxBrUbHX4AET2iO

Or jump 100 miles north.

I'd rather have all rain than an ice storm of that magnitude. It would be horrible, Orange County would have no power for a week, longer in some places if something like that verified, especially with the sub zero cold Sunday night to immediately follow.

The scary thing is that solution keeps showing up on several models for the last five days. No thanks
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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:06 am

Is the coast still go be partially rain or more rain than snow even if this presses more s and east. Mugs a ice storm like that would be so damaging so many trees lines etc would be lost. Widespread power outages for sure.
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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:08 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
amugs wrote:JESUS this would be cray cray - we better pray that this storm jumps 50-100 miles S&E so this deosn't happen - ala 1994 analogy I made above

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 4 DxBrUbHX4AET2iO

Or jump 100 miles north.

I'd rather have all rain than an ice storm of that magnitude. It would be horrible, Orange County would have no power for a week, longer in some places if something like that verified, especially with the sub zero cold Sunday night to immediately follow.

The scary thing is that solution keeps showing up on several models for the last five days. No thanks
yeah its not like it was shown once a week us put. Its starting to concern me and I do not ever recall a freeing rain storm with a in He or more of ice on everything. If this pushes only 10 miles south I am in the heaviest freeing rain. Right now looks like I'm just south which tells me all rain. But I refuse to believe that lol.
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Post by oldtimer on Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:25 am

I remember a ice storm in the early 70's It was terrible The town of Garden City with its huge trees came down and clearly i remember temperatures were in the 20s with pouring rain

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Post by Guest on Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:27 am

You guys know me by now no hope we get this kind of ice storm. I love to watch the mass panic when we have bad weather

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:35 am

syosnow94 wrote:You guys know me by now no hope we get this kind of ice storm. I love to watch the mass panic when we have bad weather

Not in LI or coastal areas, but inland areas this is a definite possibility.
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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:39 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:You guys know me by now no hope we get this kind of ice storm. I love to watch the mass panic when we have bad weather

Not in LI or coastal areas, but inland areas this is a definite possibility.
am I far enough inland? I feel like I'm kinda in the dividing zone far enough from heat island but not past 287. My job in white plains could b effected which is fine by me I hope they lose power for a long time lol.
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Post by Guest on Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:40 am

Is there any significance to the slight changes in the 500 mb of the 12z NAM?

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Post by sroc4 on Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:41 am

TheAresian wrote:Is there any significance to the slight changes in the 500 mb of the 12z NAM?

For my back yard I dont like the changes so far. Only out to hr 66. S Energy further N

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Post by Guest on Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:42 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:You guys know me by now no hope we get this kind of ice storm. I love to watch the mass panic when we have bad weather

Not in LI or coastal areas, but inland areas this is a definite possibility.

I’ve had a few here on LI of .4” or more that I remember CP. last one was 1994

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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:47 am

[quote="syosnow94"]
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:You guys know me by now no hope we get this kind of ice storm. I love to watch the mass panic when we have bad weather

Not in LI or coastal areas, but inland areas this is a definite possibility.
anything over .25 starts to cause big issues. 1.5 to 2.0 is just rediculous. Soy I too enjoy watch the panic and I would kinda like to see a severe ice storm as long as its not life threatening. To me seems it would be more of a tree and power issue. The unfortunate accidents would be those dumb enough to drive in something like that. I feel bad but have a hard time feeling too sympathetic to the decision to go out.
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