January 18th Winter Storm Looms

EURO!!! BIGGER PICTURE

amugs wrote:GFS in the game too



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I'm at the Jersey Shore right where the 2nd darkest gray line goes over the coastline and out to sea. 1.5-2", which if it verifies is my best storm since last January when I measured 2.5"

The balancing act between hope and pessimism, maturity and petulance, caring and not caring...lol it's the new normal. But for today, I'm once again all in...

C'MON 1.5"!!!! We can do this!! Oh yeah followed instantly by 3-5 hours of steady rain. Great,...

Right, see what I mean? I can't get away from it. Oh well, ima get what I get and not get upset. All the hard work that goes into the tracking and forecasting of these storms is pretty intense, regardless of what happens imby. Thanks all- much appreciated!

Models did the windshield wiper as they are swinging back to near the Mon and Tues runs for cold and snow. FINALLY A POSITIVE TREND!!

Folks let me remind yuo we are in a warm MJO phase 6 transitioning into a phase 7 so this is literally highway robbery.

I guess the ol' folklore saying is true - Winter Thunderstorms will bring winter snowstorms in ten days or less.

amugs wrote:EURO!!! BIGGER PICTURE

NICE, Mugs, looks like that 3 to 5 is a lock as we get close to nowcast time.We will have a snowpack for a week anyway,LOL.

For once it does seem like the trend is our friend. I'm pretty pumped to get my biggest snowfall of the year: whether it be 3" or 5". No complaints here.

I guess I should be thrilled to get 3 inches maybe more. I am but it's sad to what winter has become. Hoping we overpetform a few inches.

GFS keep bringing the heavier forcing further east each run.

Last storm we got hit heavier in Bloomingdale. Paramus looked like a dusting, and we looked like a winter wonderland. Here's hoping for more this time around again.

Despite the very good trends today, Lee Goldberg is still saying 1-3 for NYC north and west. He said 3-6 inch amounts will be confined to NW of i-287. What gives??? Has he been looking at the model trends today?

nutleyblizzard wrote:Despite the very good trends today, Lee Goldberg is still saying 1-3 for NYC north and west. He said 3-6 inch amounts will be confined to NW of i-287. What gives??? Has he been looking at the model trends today?

He's probably going with the idea of a warm tongue of air comes in. Models do show 800mb to be the area of concern. If that warm tongue is stronger than modeled, closer to 2", if not, i'd say 4". Need to see tomorrow how the 850's look and the wind directions. We shall see.

Let's very conservative and always stays low until before the storm is about to start.
SB Storms and most of 13-14,14-15 he was saying low end totals and at midnight when it started he would up his totals. Good forecaster but frustrating at times.
Interesting cause they ride the GFS and EURO and they aint showing 1-3.
He rides the warmicist train along with other TV mets.
Bernie calling for 3-6" N & W of I95 .

Nam is colder and snowier this run!

NAM 3K looks better as well!

nutleyblizzard wrote:

That actually looks like a lot less in some places, still about 2-4 for me.

And its pretty damn cold tonight. 14/-4 right now.

nutleyblizzard wrote:
NAM 3K looks better as well!

No idea if 3K or 12K has born itself out better in practice, but the 3K map at least looks more plausible, totals aside.

Zhukov1945 wrote:

nutleyblizzard wrote:
NAM 3K looks better as well!

No idea if 3K or 12K has born itself out better in practice, but the 3K map at least looks more plausible, totals aside.

Exactly what I was going to say. 3K looks very reasonable.

To end any confusion the 12k Nam map I posted does not include sleet. The 3k shows snow & sleet. TT shows a 12k map with snow & sleet which I currently can't post. Its better than the 3k version.

Here's the 12k NAM clown map...

At least here in Albany I likely won't have to worry about mixing issues

nutleyblizzard wrote:To end any confusion the 12k Nam map I posted does not include sleet. The 3k shows snow & sleet. TT shows a 12k map with snow & sleet which I currently can't post. Its better than the 3k version.

Yes, but with this system there should be very little sleet.

If this WRF is finally right it would be incredible. It nailed last week tornado outbreak and the storm totals in the upper midwest. So well see.
From SS at 33nRain board

amugs wrote:If this WRF is finally right it would be incredible. It nailed last week tornado outbreak and the storm totals in the upper midwest. So well see.
From SS at 33nRain board

That's crazy but I would take the 8.7 near me, lol.

At 0Z NAM is by far the most aggressive with the warming at 800mb. Let's see if it's right.