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January 18th Winter Storm Looms

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Post by heehaw453 on Wed Jan 15, 2020 1:33 pm

@bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:Euro a bit weaker this run. Shore still just an inch or so city maybe 1-2. Draw a line from Trenton to NYC and north of that line is 3-5.

Yeah. That seems to be what the 12Z models are saying today in regard to I-95 snow line. Almost across the board.

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Post by heehaw453 on Wed Jan 15, 2020 1:44 pm

This is 10:1 snow ratio as the warm tongue approaches, it won't be.  Probably 8:1, but on the onset it should be at least 10:1.

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Post by hyde345 on Wed Jan 15, 2020 2:00 pm

IMO this is looking like a 2-4/3-5 type event just north and west of NYC and further up into the HV, 1-2 slushy inches elsewhere. Looks like we may have something to track next weekend as well. Things, they are a changing.
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Post by heehaw453 on Wed Jan 15, 2020 2:28 pm

@hyde345 wrote:IMO this is looking like a 2-4/3-5 type event just north and west of NYC and further up into the HV, 1-2 slushy inches elsewhere. Looks like we may have something to track next weekend as well. Things, they are a changing.  

It definitely will change over near the coast as modeled. However, when the precip starts it could very well be in the upper 20's (CPK) surface with dew points in the teens coming up from the low 20's. I believe this could be NYC's best snowfall of the season to date (I know that's not saying much) as it'll stick to everything immediately. If it comes in a bit more robust to start it'll be 3"+ for CPK. It's got to produce early though, otherwise, it's no dice for them.

I base this on what the 12Z Euro is showing me. It's definitely better than the last 2 runs.

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Post by algae888 on Wed Jan 15, 2020 2:31 pm

@hyde345 wrote:IMO this is looking like a 2-4/3-5 type event just north and west of NYC and further up into the HV, 1-2 slushy inches elsewhere. Looks like we may have something to track next weekend as well. Things, they are a changing.  

That's a good call and I agree the one good thing about the primary being so far west is that the southerly flow is very weak until we're several hours into precipitation field so snow should hold on longer could be my biggest snowfall of the season and maybe the first one to stick to the pavement as temperatures will be in the teen Saturday morning also in your reference to the 25th timeframe give or a take a day all three globals have a system coming out of the South with a nice high pressure in southern Canada good setup now will the temperatures cooperate we shall see
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Post by HectorO on Wed Jan 15, 2020 2:36 pm

Bloomingdale is right next to West Milford, so I'm in the range for more snow, but this thing is most likely going to be a slop fest overnight. Some really cold days next week, but of course by then, the air is dry.
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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Jan 15, 2020 2:48 pm

@algae888 wrote:
@hyde345 wrote:IMO this is looking like a 2-4/3-5 type event just north and west of NYC and further up into the HV, 1-2 slushy inches elsewhere. Looks like we may have something to track next weekend as well. Things, they are a changing.  

That's a good call and I agree the one good thing about the primary being so far west is that the southerly flow is very weak until we're several hours into precipitation field so snow should hold on longer could be my biggest snowfall of the season and maybe the first one to stick to the pavement as temperatures will be in the teen Saturday morning also in your reference to the 25th timeframe give or a take a day all three globals have a system coming out of the South with a nice high pressure in southern Canada good setup now will the temperatures cooperate we shall see
let's hope al. Very sharp cut off for our area all of 10miles or less could cut or add a inch or 2. The euro shows yonkers 3.9 I'll sadly sign for this at this point.
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Post by phil155 on Wed Jan 15, 2020 3:03 pm

Any chance if the intensity is there and the 850 temps are correct that some areas can over perform a bit? not expecting any huge over performance but maybe some possible upside?

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Post by amugs on Wed Jan 15, 2020 3:42 pm

@phil155 wrote:Any chance if the intensity is there and the 850 temps are correct that some areas can over perform a bit? not expecting any huge over performance but maybe some possible upside?

Phil,
We dont want it intensified it will pull up more warm air sin e it is west of us.
We want a weaker and earlier system which the models are starting to pick up on and which I have said 10x already these types of storms always come in faster and leave faster than mo than modelled.
Also maybe slow down the departing High Pressure system as well and strengthen it a few Mbs and we'd be even better off.
Tricky storm you see but some slightly more favorable 12z runs. Let's see where we are at 6Z tomorrow where I believe we have a full sampling of the storm.

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Post by amugs on Wed Jan 15, 2020 3:50 pm

Euro maps for the weenies.
18Z NAM is coming in better as well.
January 18th Winter Storm Looms - Page 3 Ecmwf-12
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January 18th Winter Storm Looms - Page 3 Ecmwf-12
January 18th Winter Storm Looms - Page 3 Ecmwf-13

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Post by phil155 on Wed Jan 15, 2020 4:14 pm

Thanks for the speedy response, I really appreciate it. When I mentioned intensity I was only referring to precip rates and not the intensity of the low itself just the precip rates. Thanks though for the response again, I really appreciate it and I agree that it is a good idea to wait for the 6z runs tomorrow

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Post by nutleyblizzard on Wed Jan 15, 2020 5:34 pm

18z GFS comes in a tick colder. Good trends continue.
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Post by brownie on Wed Jan 15, 2020 5:42 pm

@amugs wrote:Anyway any snow is good snow.
I completely agree with this statement, which is why I never quite understand those who complain they didn’t get enough.  If it’s white, it’s pretty, and I’ll enjoy it!

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Post by billg315 on Wed Jan 15, 2020 5:51 pm

18z GFS continues to hold steadfast - maybe even slightly more bullish - on a solid 3-5” snow event from NYC west and north (essentially anywhere north of I-195 and NW of the NJ Turnpike/I-95. GFS has been very consistent. And 18z NAM is pretty much in line too. If nothing changes I’d say this is could be a decent snow “event” (marginal to call it a storm) for a good chunk of people on this board. Especially since the standard for some of us this year (like me! Lol) is anything over two inches will be our biggest snowfall.
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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Jan 15, 2020 7:04 pm

Anything over a half inch here is my standard lol
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Post by nutleyblizzard on Wed Jan 15, 2020 7:58 pm

January 18th Winter Storm Looms - Page 3 Acb3a910
18z Euro ticks colder.
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Post by amugs on Wed Jan 15, 2020 8:42 pm

Let's hope this tick holds for the next 66 hours!! It has the low not as strong and the HP a few ticks stronger.
Sampling happens to be tomorrow. This is when we have a much better grasp and see if these favorable ticks are real.

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Post by aiannone on Wed Jan 15, 2020 11:15 pm

0z NAM and 0z GFS are a bit further south and definitely colder than previous runs
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Post by heehaw453 on Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:59 am

@heehaw453 wrote:3 days+ out now and I'd say models are telling us that storm moves north and is bit more amped.  This does two things: erodes the cold air mass more quickly and allows forcing to be much further west.  We won't get the really good thump as modeled.

This could still trend either way, but it's not like models pulled the rug out from under us 2 days out.  So if trends the other way that'll be great.

Thoughts as of today
2-4" NW of 95 (lots more 2's & 3's)
1-2" Along and near 95
C-1" SE of 95

I still like these numbers. IMBY I'll set 3" as the over/under. Surface will be very cold to start and it should allow for easy accumulations. How much snow will be determined by how robust the initial WAA is. If it's not robust then these modest numbers will bust.

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Post by billg315 on Thu Jan 16, 2020 7:07 am

I’m thinking the NAM is picking up in a key factor the GFS really hasn’t which is a transition period of sleet/frz rain. These setups almost always follow that progression: Snow then sleet/frz then rain. GFS was mainly showing a clean transfer of snow to rain with snow lasting longer. That likely accounts for it’s more bullish snow totals the last few days. I think NAM is more likely right that this goes over to sleet for a time from CNJ back to the NW Philly burbs. If that is the case my snow expectations are further tempered and I’d expect 1-3 followed by sleet for most areas except for extreme northern NJ where 2-4” is possible where snow hangs in a little longer.
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Post by heehaw453 on Thu Jan 16, 2020 10:26 am

The 12Z Icon really holds onto the cold at the surface.  I think this rain/snow line is an accurate representation on where you have potential for 2-4" with this SWFE.

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Post by hyde345 on Thu Jan 16, 2020 10:36 am

NWS Albany discussion about the storm below. They are rather bullish with possible snow totals, talking 4-6 in my area. I think most accums are going to happen in roughly a 4 hour period then its basically done. I still think 3-4 IMBY.



Saturday morning will begin dry across the entire area, with
increasing cloud cover. Temperatures will be very cold to start the
day (in the single digits shortly after daybreak), which will set
the stage for a widespread snow event. Main area of low pressure
will be lifting across Michigan on Saturday, with a strong
southwesterly low level jet in excess of 50 kts in place over the
Northeast. This strong warm advection should allow for a period of
steady snowfall, mainly for Saturday afternoon into the evening
hours. The strong lift should intersect with the optimal snow
growth range for a few hours, so we do expect the potential for a
period of heavy snowfall across much of the area and snowfall rates
in excess of one inch per hour will be likely for a time. Several
inches of snowfall should have accumulated by early Saturday evening
across much of the area.

Model differences start to come into play for later Saturday evening
into Saturday night. While many models had been showing a secondary
low pressure area developing along the northern mid-Atlantic coast
which would prolong steady snowfall, some models (such as the 00z
GFS) are not showing this or showing it it to be weaker or
developing later (such as the 00z NAM). This could allow the
steadier, widespread snowfall to start to shut off Saturday evening,
with additional snowfall on Saturday night more focused across
northern and high terrain areas, or across further east into New
England. Because of this, there still is some uncertainty regarding
exact snowfall amounts. Usually in this type of pattern, the
Adirondacks and southern Greens see the highest totals, as the
strong southwest flow upslopes these areas, while downsloping off
the Catskills limits totals in the Capital Region. For now, will
forecast snow total amounts of about 4 to 6 inches for the Capital
Region and mid Hudson Valley, with 6 to 12 for northern and high
terrain areas. Temperatures look to warm into the 20s for Saturday
and be fairly steady for Saturday night.
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Post by heehaw453 on Thu Jan 16, 2020 10:56 am

Something else I'm noticing on the models.  I think NW (30+ miles) of 95 isn't going to flip to rain.  Maybe some frozen taint, but seems like dry slot and then there is a quick warm up as the WAA overcomes the CAD.  

It's this forcing (circled) that to me makes or breaks this potential.

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Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Jan 16, 2020 11:26 am

My thoughts remain unchanged with 1-3" for NYC Metro and 3-6" N&W. S&E of NYC may see <1".

Timing pushed back from late morning to the afternoon. Looks like a 2-3pm start time.

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Post by Dunnzoo on Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:23 pm

Trending colder for NNJ, 18z models have very little if no rain. All snow and/or mix. Still in the 3-4" range for here, LI changes to rain with just about an inch.

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