January 18th Winter Storm Looms
+24
Snow88
frank 638
aiannone
brownie
nutleyblizzard
HectorO
algae888
hyde345
bobjohnsonforthehall
weatherwatchermom
phil155
GreyBeard
billg315
heehaw453
dkodgis
amugs
sroc4
docstox12
Dunnzoo
CPcantmeasuresnow
jmanley32
mwilli
essexcountypete
Frank_Wx
28 posters
Page 3 of 6 • 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms
For what its worth the 12z GFS is holding consistent as it has been on the last several runs with a pretty prolonged front-end snow of generally 3-5" pretty much every where north and west of the immediate NYC area. Actually not a whole lot different from the NAM except the NAM throws in an area of sleet in the middle of the snow for some areas in Central NJ/Eastern PA.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 4434
Join date : 2015-01-24
Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms
Euro a bit weaker this run. Shore still just an inch or so city maybe 1-2. Draw a line from Trenton to NYC and north of that line is 3-5.
bobjohnsonforthehall- Posts : 311
Join date : 2016-10-02
Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms
bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:Euro a bit weaker this run. Shore still just an inch or so city maybe 1-2. Draw a line from Trenton to NYC and north of that line is 3-5.
Yeah. That seems to be what the 12Z models are saying today in regard to I-95 snow line. Almost across the board.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 3892
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 3892
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL
Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms
IMO this is looking like a 2-4/3-5 type event just north and west of NYC and further up into the HV, 1-2 slushy inches elsewhere. Looks like we may have something to track next weekend as well. Things, they are a changing.
hyde345- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 1082
Reputation : 48
Join date : 2013-01-08
Location : Hyde Park, NY
Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms
hyde345 wrote:IMO this is looking like a 2-4/3-5 type event just north and west of NYC and further up into the HV, 1-2 slushy inches elsewhere. Looks like we may have something to track next weekend as well. Things, they are a changing.
It definitely will change over near the coast as modeled. However, when the precip starts it could very well be in the upper 20's (CPK) surface with dew points in the teens coming up from the low 20's. I believe this could be NYC's best snowfall of the season to date (I know that's not saying much) as it'll stick to everything immediately. If it comes in a bit more robust to start it'll be 3"+ for CPK. It's got to produce early though, otherwise, it's no dice for them.
I base this on what the 12Z Euro is showing me. It's definitely better than the last 2 runs.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 3892
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL
Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms
hyde345 wrote:IMO this is looking like a 2-4/3-5 type event just north and west of NYC and further up into the HV, 1-2 slushy inches elsewhere. Looks like we may have something to track next weekend as well. Things, they are a changing.
That's a good call and I agree the one good thing about the primary being so far west is that the southerly flow is very weak until we're several hours into precipitation field so snow should hold on longer could be my biggest snowfall of the season and maybe the first one to stick to the pavement as temperatures will be in the teen Saturday morning also in your reference to the 25th timeframe give or a take a day all three globals have a system coming out of the South with a nice high pressure in southern Canada good setup now will the temperatures cooperate we shall see
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5311
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 61
Location : mt. vernon, new york
Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms
Bloomingdale is right next to West Milford, so I'm in the range for more snow, but this thing is most likely going to be a slop fest overnight. Some really cold days next week, but of course by then, the air is dry.
HectorO- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 959
Reputation : 27
Join date : 2013-01-11
Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms
let's hope al. Very sharp cut off for our area all of 10miles or less could cut or add a inch or 2. The euro shows yonkers 3.9 I'll sadly sign for this at this point.algae888 wrote:hyde345 wrote:IMO this is looking like a 2-4/3-5 type event just north and west of NYC and further up into the HV, 1-2 slushy inches elsewhere. Looks like we may have something to track next weekend as well. Things, they are a changing.
That's a good call and I agree the one good thing about the primary being so far west is that the southerly flow is very weak until we're several hours into precipitation field so snow should hold on longer could be my biggest snowfall of the season and maybe the first one to stick to the pavement as temperatures will be in the teen Saturday morning also in your reference to the 25th timeframe give or a take a day all three globals have a system coming out of the South with a nice high pressure in southern Canada good setup now will the temperatures cooperate we shall see
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20479
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms
Any chance if the intensity is there and the 850 temps are correct that some areas can over perform a bit? not expecting any huge over performance but maybe some possible upside?
phil155- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 474
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2019-12-16
Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms
phil155 wrote:Any chance if the intensity is there and the 850 temps are correct that some areas can over perform a bit? not expecting any huge over performance but maybe some possible upside?
Phil,
We dont want it intensified it will pull up more warm air sin e it is west of us.
We want a weaker and earlier system which the models are starting to pick up on and which I have said 10x already these types of storms always come in faster and leave faster than mo than modelled.
Also maybe slow down the departing High Pressure system as well and strengthen it a few Mbs and we'd be even better off.
Tricky storm you see but some slightly more favorable 12z runs. Let's see where we are at 6Z tomorrow where I believe we have a full sampling of the storm.
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15084
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15084
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms
Thanks for the speedy response, I really appreciate it. When I mentioned intensity I was only referring to precip rates and not the intensity of the low itself just the precip rates. Thanks though for the response again, I really appreciate it and I agree that it is a good idea to wait for the 6z runs tomorrow
phil155- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 474
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2019-12-16
Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms
18z GFS comes in a tick colder. Good trends continue.
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1951
Reputation : 41
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 57
Location : Nutley, new jersey
Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms
I completely agree with this statement, which is why I never quite understand those who complain they didn’t get enough. If it’s white, it’s pretty, and I’ll enjoy it!amugs wrote:Anyway any snow is good snow.
brownie- Posts : 385
Reputation : 17
Join date : 2013-11-10
Location : Parsippany, NJ
Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms
18z GFS continues to hold steadfast - maybe even slightly more bullish - on a solid 3-5” snow event from NYC west and north (essentially anywhere north of I-195 and NW of the NJ Turnpike/I-95. GFS has been very consistent. And 18z NAM is pretty much in line too. If nothing changes I’d say this is could be a decent snow “event” (marginal to call it a storm) for a good chunk of people on this board. Especially since the standard for some of us this year (like me! Lol) is anything over two inches will be our biggest snowfall.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 4434
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ
Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms
Anything over a half inch here is my standard lol
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20479
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1951
Reputation : 41
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 57
Location : Nutley, new jersey
Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms
Let's hope this tick holds for the next 66 hours!! It has the low not as strong and the HP a few ticks stronger.
Sampling happens to be tomorrow. This is when we have a much better grasp and see if these favorable ticks are real.
Sampling happens to be tomorrow. This is when we have a much better grasp and see if these favorable ticks are real.
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15084
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms
0z NAM and 0z GFS are a bit further south and definitely colder than previous runs
_________________
-Alex Iannone-
aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
- Posts : 4813
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)
Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms
heehaw453 wrote:3 days+ out now and I'd say models are telling us that storm moves north and is bit more amped. This does two things: erodes the cold air mass more quickly and allows forcing to be much further west. We won't get the really good thump as modeled.
This could still trend either way, but it's not like models pulled the rug out from under us 2 days out. So if trends the other way that'll be great.
Thoughts as of today
2-4" NW of 95 (lots more 2's & 3's)
1-2" Along and near 95
C-1" SE of 95
I still like these numbers. IMBY I'll set 3" as the over/under. Surface will be very cold to start and it should allow for easy accumulations. How much snow will be determined by how robust the initial WAA is. If it's not robust then these modest numbers will bust.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 3892
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL
Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms
I’m thinking the NAM is picking up in a key factor the GFS really hasn’t which is a transition period of sleet/frz rain. These setups almost always follow that progression: Snow then sleet/frz then rain. GFS was mainly showing a clean transfer of snow to rain with snow lasting longer. That likely accounts for it’s more bullish snow totals the last few days. I think NAM is more likely right that this goes over to sleet for a time from CNJ back to the NW Philly burbs. If that is the case my snow expectations are further tempered and I’d expect 1-3 followed by sleet for most areas except for extreme northern NJ where 2-4” is possible where snow hangs in a little longer.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 4434
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 3892
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL
Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms
NWS Albany discussion about the storm below. They are rather bullish with possible snow totals, talking 4-6 in my area. I think most accums are going to happen in roughly a 4 hour period then its basically done. I still think 3-4 IMBY.
Saturday morning will begin dry across the entire area, with
increasing cloud cover. Temperatures will be very cold to start the
day (in the single digits shortly after daybreak), which will set
the stage for a widespread snow event. Main area of low pressure
will be lifting across Michigan on Saturday, with a strong
southwesterly low level jet in excess of 50 kts in place over the
Northeast. This strong warm advection should allow for a period of
steady snowfall, mainly for Saturday afternoon into the evening
hours. The strong lift should intersect with the optimal snow
growth range for a few hours, so we do expect the potential for a
period of heavy snowfall across much of the area and snowfall rates
in excess of one inch per hour will be likely for a time. Several
inches of snowfall should have accumulated by early Saturday evening
across much of the area.
Model differences start to come into play for later Saturday evening
into Saturday night. While many models had been showing a secondary
low pressure area developing along the northern mid-Atlantic coast
which would prolong steady snowfall, some models (such as the 00z
GFS) are not showing this or showing it it to be weaker or
developing later (such as the 00z NAM). This could allow the
steadier, widespread snowfall to start to shut off Saturday evening,
with additional snowfall on Saturday night more focused across
northern and high terrain areas, or across further east into New
England. Because of this, there still is some uncertainty regarding
exact snowfall amounts. Usually in this type of pattern, the
Adirondacks and southern Greens see the highest totals, as the
strong southwest flow upslopes these areas, while downsloping off
the Catskills limits totals in the Capital Region. For now, will
forecast snow total amounts of about 4 to 6 inches for the Capital
Region and mid Hudson Valley, with 6 to 12 for northern and high
terrain areas. Temperatures look to warm into the 20s for Saturday
and be fairly steady for Saturday night.
Saturday morning will begin dry across the entire area, with
increasing cloud cover. Temperatures will be very cold to start the
day (in the single digits shortly after daybreak), which will set
the stage for a widespread snow event. Main area of low pressure
will be lifting across Michigan on Saturday, with a strong
southwesterly low level jet in excess of 50 kts in place over the
Northeast. This strong warm advection should allow for a period of
steady snowfall, mainly for Saturday afternoon into the evening
hours. The strong lift should intersect with the optimal snow
growth range for a few hours, so we do expect the potential for a
period of heavy snowfall across much of the area and snowfall rates
in excess of one inch per hour will be likely for a time. Several
inches of snowfall should have accumulated by early Saturday evening
across much of the area.
Model differences start to come into play for later Saturday evening
into Saturday night. While many models had been showing a secondary
low pressure area developing along the northern mid-Atlantic coast
which would prolong steady snowfall, some models (such as the 00z
GFS) are not showing this or showing it it to be weaker or
developing later (such as the 00z NAM). This could allow the
steadier, widespread snowfall to start to shut off Saturday evening,
with additional snowfall on Saturday night more focused across
northern and high terrain areas, or across further east into New
England. Because of this, there still is some uncertainty regarding
exact snowfall amounts. Usually in this type of pattern, the
Adirondacks and southern Greens see the highest totals, as the
strong southwest flow upslopes these areas, while downsloping off
the Catskills limits totals in the Capital Region. For now, will
forecast snow total amounts of about 4 to 6 inches for the Capital
Region and mid Hudson Valley, with 6 to 12 for northern and high
terrain areas. Temperatures look to warm into the 20s for Saturday
and be fairly steady for Saturday night.
hyde345- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 1082
Reputation : 48
Join date : 2013-01-08
Location : Hyde Park, NY
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 3892
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL
Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms
My thoughts remain unchanged with 1-3" for NYC Metro and 3-6" N&W. S&E of NYC may see <1".
Timing pushed back from late morning to the afternoon. Looks like a 2-3pm start time.
Timing pushed back from late morning to the afternoon. Looks like a 2-3pm start time.
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms
Trending colder for NNJ, 18z models have very little if no rain. All snow and/or mix. Still in the 3-4" range for here, LI changes to rain with just about an inch.
_________________
Janet
Snowfall winter of 2023-2024 17.5"
Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
- Posts : 4868
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 62
Location : Westwood, NJ
Page 3 of 6 • 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
|
|